Member Info for danawinner

In spite of the fact that some investors may be tempted to top slice at the psychological threshold of 50 pence, I think that once the Toronto market opens up at 2.30 pm we will see them overtake us and drag us up further.
North may of course sell into the rise, but as previously stated, I believe that they will curtail this due to other potential bidders for their shares 'En bloc' rather than piecemeal sales through the market.
It's going to be a wild ride tomorrow.
Word is finally out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPUBbCpSam0&t=1087s
Now over 500 views compared with 30 at the market close.

Groover, one of the many good things about TXP is that 60% of the shares are in Private Investors' hands.
Whilst some may take a short term view, I think that most of us would like to see this keep going up, as a quoted share.
When a share like Dana got an offer that doubled people's cash, the Fund Managers, who were in control, took a short term view, and voted to sell out at double their money, as that helped their Fund to show good figures for the year.
Rest assured that any bid for TXP would have to be at a silly level with all the excellent news flow that we have got coming in the next few months.
If we were to hit a couple of dusters with Royston and Chinook, then the sentiment may change, but for the time being, we are on a roll.

Good news eh Photo TLP?
I already called £1 before the end of the year, but I am now revising that to before the end of June.
I got ****ged this morning on another chat Board for my bullshot over the weekend.
We can all thank Paul for an excellent presentation and confirmation that we could have an auction with BP Shell et al at any time, but not until we have proved how massive the finds and proposed drills have been done.
I did say that it was a case of Quod Erat Demonstrandum.
I rest my case.

Highest ever closing price.
Have North stopped selling?
It would appear so.
Why?
Because Shell and BP are talking to them.

Important to keep this up the page
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPUBbCpSam0

The uncrossed trade should be good!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPUBbCpSam0

Trek,
Sadly not for a while, I'm afraid.

Believe me, if I could, I would,

One of the beauties of AIM shares is that if you hold for more than 2 years before your death, they are exempt from IHT.

I am in the process selling a house at the moment which will free up a six figure sum, which is heading for TXP and I hope to double my holding, but the SP may get away from me.
GLA

Trade Date/Time:
Execution Venue:
Settlement Date:
Transaction Reference:
Order Type:
SIPP Dealing Account
17-Feb-2020 08:21:45
Stock Name Quantity Price Consideration
Transaction Type: Buy
Stock Details
TOUCHSTONE
EXPLORATION
COM SHS NPV 30,000 £ 0.421000 £ 12630.00
(DI/RES)
Commission:
Total:
5.99
Bargain Conditions: None 12,635.99
£
£

Sadly, the excellent research posted by J t D has been removed.
I think that he must have blotted his copybook somewhere along the line.
In a nutshell, it went into Shell's positive investment into Trinidad and that they have lost a big Venezuelan project as a result of the USA embargo.
In all, they are short of gas and gas projects and we are therefore a prime target for them.
Very sad that we have lost this info, it was excellent.

JTD
A very valid observation.
As an opening bid, natch.

JTD that is the problem in a nutshell.
Any takeover will be decided by a shareholder vote which is why for example Dana was sold to KNOC for only a multiplier of 2 X earnings - admittedly a big SP premium.
Short termism means that the likes of Shell can steal assets like ours on the cheap.
You can't blame them - it's their job.
If we are allowed to run for three years, SP will be massive.

JTD I agree completely and if you click on my name and scroll down, I did a simplistic valuation on the 5th of Feb

My 50 pence estimate by the end of the month is looking quite safe.
Here is my valuation which I posted yesterday, before the news.
Here is a very simplistic valuation.
Existing production 1,729 bopd which covers costs and a profit.
plus
COHO 1 Production 1,500 boepd net at say $30 per barrel contribution = $16,425,000 per annum
plus
Cascadura say 3,000 boepd net at say $30 per barrel contribution = $32,850,000 per annum
Total increase in profit = $49,275,000 per annum
£ / $ Exchange rate = 1.30
Increase in profit = £37,900,000 per annum

Assume Market Cap of 5 X Profits = £189,500,000 This is a very low multiplier compared with the big boys - Shell is 11.3
161 million shares = 117.7 pence per share

There are lots of assumptions and projections here, and it may all be a pipe dream, but we can only speculate at this stage.
If it turns out to be correct, it would give us a four bagger in fairly short order.

Then we have the two much bigger prospect drills to come later this year..........

I stand by my estimate for Cascadura of 3,000 boepd net to us, once we have completed the testing of the other intervals.

It has been quite a good day for us today, but there is a HUGE amount still to come.

I still think that we will comfortably hit £1 per share by the end of the year.

As I said some months back, TXP is my next Dana, the share that keeps on giving.

Well done everybody, hold onto your shares.

Since then, the flows from Cascadura have turned out to be nearly double my 3,000 estimate, for one level of it.

I also used a p/e of 5, Shell's is 11.3 so it is worth double to them.

£1 is only short term.

Shell could easily justify a price of £2 or £3 per share for us.

My post from the 22nd January

As one of the largest producers in Trinidad, with control of much of the infrastructure, we must be in an intensive dialogue over how best to process the gas and fluids.
They have over 450 employees in Trinidad, although their profitability there has been slipping.
I have put quite a lot of cash into TXP and part of my rationale is that there must surely be a deal in the offing with Shell.
I am surprised that they haven't taken a position already. Having said that, they wouldn't want to boost the SP unnecessarily.
Even if they were to take us out at £100 million, based on indicative potential flows, it would pay for itself in a couple of years.
I think that we are worth far more than that, but time will tell.

Things have moved on since then.

About the same time I was predicting 50 pence before the end of Feb and £1 by the end of the year.
50 pence will be hit by end Feb and £1 now much sooner.

Looking good to me.

Excellent first posts JTD (Mk4) I think that we are onto something here.
Another point, if you look at the Shell history of Trinidad, is that Shell used to have the Ortoire block and will have loads of historic data they they are reprocessing like f*ck - in the statements below they said they were going to be doing this.
I may have been slow to work this one out, but better late than never.
GLA

Wow!
I realise that we must be talking with Shell regarding how we are going to process the large volumes of gas that we are going to be producing, and the penny has now dropped.
Shell has been in Trinidad for over 100 years or so
https://www.shell.com/about-us/contact-us/contact-trinidad/_jcr_content/par/textimage.stream/1519761820323/38af385b8756d8956b346c5555ab3c0dfd3f362d/shell-trinidad-100-years.pdf
They have a very big infrastructure and staff base there.
I don't think that they have hit anything particularly big in recent years, but please feel free to correct me.
We have hit a monster, and don't yet know just how big it is, or how big the two drills that we have in the pipeline are going to be.
Trinidad is a small country, and we can be sure that everyone that is anybody in the oil industry is going to know each other.
If I were Shell, I would be very keen to grab hold of Touchstone as quickly as possible, to get it as cheaply as possible, before there are any more finds.

I predict that at the very least Shell will want to make a major investment into us, or at best (worst for us LTHs) they will make an offer for us.
In order to even begin to interest the shareholders, it would have to be at a minimum of £1.00, but that would only represent one year's production of the oil and gas that we already know about.
This is far bigger than any of us can possibly begin to imagine.
I can now see why the Nomad was being Paul's Nanny at the Oil Capital Conference. If the slightest murmur leaked out that we may be getting a bid, this would take off like no rocket that we have ever seen (since Dana that is).
This is pure speculation on my part, but the oil business is a village, and if this is the case, and the word gets out, this could be spectacular in every way.
Damn, I just put a big lump of cash into another investment.
It's time to do a bit of jiggling of the portfolio.
I will be on the sell and buy buttons first thing on Monday.
WOW!
I must reiterate that this is speculation on my part, and that no investment advice is given, you must do your own research etcetera, but I can occasionally get things right. My Sipp portfolio has made an 80% gain since the start of the year so I must be doing OK compared with most of the highly paid Fund Managers.
10 percent gain on Monday predicted. At least.
No sleep for me this weekend then......

I was about to post that we have had a good resilient week in the face of dropping crude prices, only dropped a penny etc.
Then I saw the Canadian price, yah beauty!
Last time we had good news Canada led the pack in advance. The Canadian market is much smaller than ours, and something is getting it excited!
Currently 75 cents ( delayed) which is 43.6 pence.
Roll on Monday morning!

Yes, it's the right lot size.
Larger trades get priced up or no trade refer to dealer.
The market size for ACP is 30,000 shares, so in theory 150.000 shares (5 X Market size) should be the threshold for referrals, but for the time being, 250,000 is optimum.

I have decided that Gas and oil still have a long-term value, and that Touchstone has such good long-term potential, it is a buy and hold.
To counter-balance the future decline, I am also into a graphite producer that should have equally dramatic growth due to the massive increase in battery powered cars. Graphite is a key component in this and set to rise in price and volume. It doesn't sound like a miner but have a look at Armadale Capital, they are set to be one of the world's largest producers. Rubbish name for a mining company, but well below the horizon and worth a look dyor etc.

If the talks had fallen through, the Nomad would insist on immediate announcement.
Let's hope that it will be signed today.