Member Info for danawinner

Shellguy/Kristian Excellent find on the Upstream accelerated twin drilling article.
For me, this is definitely price-sensitive information and should not be hidden behind a paywall, but should be in an RNS.
I have put a call into the Nomad team at Shore Capital who promised me that they are looking into it pdq.
Nomads are very sensitive indeed about potential breaches of the AIM Rules, and i think that we will see something pretty soon.

OK, so I can;t sleep with anticipation.
We know from the COHO 1 results that the rig that was too small can handle ;-
Flow and build-up test results suggest an Absolute Open Flow ("AOF") rate of 46.0 million cubic feet per day ("MMCFD") (approximately 7,671 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boe/d")). Initial production rate is about a quarter of this
This was far too small to deal with the flow from Cascadura.

Here is a very simplistic valuation.
Existing production 1,729 bopd which covers costs and a profit.
plus
COHO 1 Production 1,500 boepd net at say $30 per barrel contribution = $16,425,000 per annum
plus
Cascadura say 3,000 boepd net at say $30 per barrel contribution = $32,850,000 per annum
Total increase in profit = $49,275,000 per annum
£ / $ Exchange rate = 1.30
Increase in profit = £37,900,000 per annum

Assume Market Cap of 5 X Profits = £189,500,000 This is a very low multiplier compared with the big boys - Shell is 11.3
161 million shares = 117.7 pence per share

There are lots of assumptions and projections here, and it may all be a pipe dream, but we can only speculate at this stage.
If it turns out to be correct, it would give us a four bagger in fairly short order.

Then we have the two much bigger prospect drills to come later this year..........

We may not have the figures, but if we know that the total production for Trinidad and Tobago is 87,000 and that Heritage gets a free carry of 20% on everything, then perhaps we can infer that the Heritage figure is 17,400 barrels per day.
On that basis, if we are to be number 2 then we can anticipate that we will exceed this!
I know that Paul was aiming for 10,000 barrels per day, but let us not forget that in Paul's words,' We are looking at a very different company than before the Cascadura discovery', along with words such as transformational and Word Class Well.
Bearing in mind that Heritage will get 20% of our production, we will need to be producing in excess of 20,000 per day in order to overtake them.
The fact that Paul said 12 to 14 months to reach production, would imply to me that we are going to need some serious infrastructure, as we are expecting to be producing from Coho by the middle of this year.
It just keeps getting better all the time.
This is like waiting for a pint of Guinness.
Tick......tock..........

and hanging in there with the rest of us.
I nearly took a position in Baron on Monday, as I had the feeling something might break, but decided to wait for the TXP boost, so I messed up there pretty big time, but I know that my patience here will be rewarded.
Ah well, I suspect that Baron is a pump and dump so would rather have the solid backing of huge gas and oil revenues than the pie in the sky that so many AIM oilies offer.
I sincerely hope that when the news breaks we are not subjected to the day trade rampers that seem to populate so many boards on LSE. I am always suspicious when I see umpteen new accounts with 20 posts waxing lyrical about how the SP is going to double and treble within a day, but hey, it does happen once in a blue moon.
I for one will be very happy to see a mere 50% rise when the Cascadura news drops, I would rather have solid growth than too much froth.
Only 7 hrs and 43 minutes to wait until the next possible RNS.....................
Sleep well all.

I can't remember whether this has been posted on here, but it does give a fairly comprehensive analysis of what is happening, without the latest high pressure gas at Cascadura.
Let's see if the link gets through intact.
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/TXP-report-for-web-02122019.pdf

The Cotton field lies 100 Km east of Scarborough between the Kilmar and Garrow fields in both of which RockRose holds a 15% interest.

I would imagine that AA has already agreed the terms of a tie-in to get the gas ashore, which must have given us the edge on a favourable deal.

Hard to tell really what the effect on SP will be.
Could take 18 months to 2 years to become producing, at a guess.
Token initial payment.
If nothing else, it will get us a bit of attention.
My guess is open 50 pence up rising to a pound up on the day, but the market will decide.
Good news for reserves and long-term production.

Ah well, RNS tomorrow then.
I'll just have to be happy with the RRE one.

Those that have belief in the Cascadura results have already taken their position.
Because we are in a pre-news period there isn't much trading, although there were a couple of largish trades. Probably North continuing to sell into any demand but relatively insignificant?
The longer this takes, imho, the bigger the news will be.
I think that they will take the opportunity to get two chunks of good news out of this.
Therefore, the first bite at the cherry will be the gas flow results from the bottom zone, followed a week or two later by the higher oil interval, which may take longer to test.
Once again, we are a day closer to the news, and we haven't drifted downwards, which with the general market resistance to oil stocks, is a very good sign.
Only 13 hours and 22 minutes until the next possible RNS announcement.
I for one can thank Touchstone for making it very easy for me to get up in the mornings.
GLA

We have completed our first month of 2020.
Closing price at the end of the month was 27.5 pence, against our opening price of 22.25 pence at the start of the year.
That's a 23.6% gain to date.
I have suggested to LSE that as well as showing the Daily Risers and Fallers, they should have weekly and monthly risers and fallers boards.
This would give a much clearer view of how a share is performing, as many of the pumped and dumped shares frequently swap between the two boards on a daily basis, leading to the naive investor jumping on fruitless bandwagons.

What do you think team?

Now that we have theoretically Brexited, the status quo remains until the end of the year, as I understand it.
That gives us 11 months for the UK to get its arrs into gear to improve our storage facilities, as after the year end, we will no longer be able to Demand gas from the European network at times when the network is stressed.
Interestingly though, The Republic of Ireland will still be able to do this.
As the R of I can only demand gas through the British network, it would be hard for the EU to deny the British network sufficient pressure to do this!
Nevertheless, the renewed Political independence from the EU should allow Government the freedom for us to get on with the Islandmagee Gas Storage Project without the need to go through the EU procurement requirements.
We happen to know of an excellent shipyard in Belfast that could provide lots of new jobs to facilitate this.
What a stroke of luck that is!
SO Boris, please can you ensure that much-needed Energy Security, well-deserved jobs and Regional Assistance is winging its way to Belfast, so that we can get on with this?
Get the cheque book out.
Oh and a Warship order would be nice as well.

In the note released on the 20th of Jan....

The well is currently shut-in while a three-phase test separator is mobilized and installed which will allow
the well to be tested safely at the high pressure and gas rates observed to date. The Company expects
testing to resume over the next ten days and will provide further updates when available.

So, testing restarted on the 30th if the Separator was delivered on time.

With luck we should have results this week.

The last Shore Capital Broker note was back in September, and a lot of successes have happened in the interim.
https://www.valuethemarkets.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/09/View-From-The-City-TXP.pdf
As our reserves and prospective output have dramatically increased since then, we must surely be due for an update?
I should imagine that they are waiting to add the prospective income from Cascadura before they issue one, but in the light of the last one, I cannot see it being less than a 50 pence share price, but my best guess is 75 pence, based on my own best estimates.

I don't have level 2 but if anyone can see a limit buy order waiting in the wings, that would explain the weird spread.
Or lack of one.

It should be over by now, and sandwiches courtesy of FieldFisher, but paid for through our fees.
In the usual way of things, we should be getting an RNS saying all Resolutions were passed.
Feedback appreciated.

Unusually, I can get an immediate quote to sell 100,000 without being routed to dealers.
Even more unusually, it is at the full ask price of 27 pence.
What makes it even more weird, if I try to buy, I can get them for 26.99 pence.
Not much point in doing this, but I have never seen this before.
Strange really, I'm not brave enough to trade.

The 'Bigger boat' Three Phase Separator should now be in place and with luck the flare stack should be burning brightly.
Pressure of 4,200 psi should be lighting up the sky with a monster flare.
Hopefully this time the rig will be able to handle the pressures and flow rates.
More to the point, we're going to need a Bigger Pipe.
Trinidad needs the gas for domestic consumption, and we can sell it at a premium, with no SPT tax.
Nice to see that the market is livening up, I seem to be able to sell shares at 27 pence, but that's not going to happen.
Now that we have had a bit of consolidation, I can see a gentle move towards the 30 pence mark, and once the news is out, even if it's for the first of the two zones that they are testing, I can easily see 35 pence and then a jerky ride up from there.
Here's hoping.
Have a good weekend all, it should be a good week next week.

CORRECTION
The fluids are variously described as Hydrocarbon emulsion and load water.
It is not all oil. My mis-read.

I still can't get my mind round the 4,200 psi pressure and a volume of 66 barrels of fluid (10,800 litres ) flowing through a 1.5 millimetre hole in 97 minutes.
That's 111 litres per minute or nearly 2 litres per second through a tiny hole.
In addition to this there must have been huge volumes of gas.
The choke must have been starting to glow, no wonder they shut it down.
Let's think about what this means to us.
When we are not trying to get oil, ie we are trying to test gas, we have got oil jumping out of the ground at a rate of 44 barrels per hour.
THIS IS 1,056 BARRELS OF DAY OF OIL PER DAY AS A BY-PRODUCT OF THE GAS!!!
WHEN IT IS RESTRICTED TO A 1.5 mm HOLE.
IN ADDITION THE GAS IS GOING TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 1,500 BARRELS PER DAY EQUIVALENT.
AND THIS IS FROM THE FIRST SMALLEST INTERVAL.

WAKE UP EVERYBODY!

shows that we are primed for a big move on the release of The Big News, hopefully next week.
The SP responds very well to small trades, and the MMs have very little float, which is evidenced by the fact that any trade over 50,000 shares is routed to Dealers.
It would appear now that the big sellers have decided to sit tight until the big news drops, and who can blame them?
This is not a share for day trading, which is a real blessing.
This discussion board is extremely civilised I hate it when the uber-rampers get involved.
A bit more patience needed, even by PB's worst estimated, the separator should now be on site, they will be working around the clock to get it into place.
I think that it will take a week to get the necessary testing done, so the results may be with us at the end of next week, with luck, although Coho 1 took longer than that, I am just being optimistic.
If anyone is passing by the well site, I think that there will be a massive flare stack burning brightly night and day.
Does anyone know anyone in Trinidad to do a drive-by? Shooting must be restricted to photographs only.
Paul, we don't need all of the results, just some big ones!