Member Info for danawinner

Having called an EGM to oust a couple of Boards in the past, I know that it is an interesting process.
I hope that you succeed and that you don't find a can of worms, but don't expect much to be left in the coffers.
If my own experience is replicated, it is ironic that you may very well have to carry out a placing in fairly short order, which is the opposite of what you hope to achieve in replacing the Board, but it may be necessary to keep the ship afloat, and may make you unpopular, but it may be the only option open to you.
All the best to all shareholders.

According to the London Stock Exchange website.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary/CA89156L1085GBGBXASQ1.html?lang=en
This LSE is unreliable.

I think that we are all anticipating a bit of news in the near future.
I am watching for a spike on the TSX which seems to be a precursor to good news on its way.
Pure coincidence.

Nice to see that someone sees a good upside to the share price, or is it cheap stakebuilding?

An interesting opinion
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2oDoy_a6VY4

Excellent move BD.
If you have a thirst for oilies, have a look at TXP and RDSB (Shell).
I hope that your SIPP continues to thrive.

Thanks for your kind words as always, Hillbilly.
If you bothered to scroll down you would see some sensible posts, I was just trying to add a bit of levity in the vale of tears.
Your comments on the sensible stuff would be equally appreciated.

Shell is the most important dividend share on the UK stock market, with many Pension Funds relying on it to pay its payees.
Shell has yet to reduce or pass on its dividend.
Whilst it is possible that the dividend may be reduced, if last year's dividend of $1.88 per share is maintained, ie £1.47 per share at an exchange rate of $1.28 per £, the dividend yield will be 8.85%.
At this SP I think that the market has factored in a reduced dividend, even though the large buy-backs of shares have reduced the amount of dividend that will need to be paid.
Let us therefore assume that the dividend yield range is 5 to 6% as an average, the implied projected dividend this year is in the 80 pence to £1 range.
If this happens, perversely, many funds would need to acquire Shell shares in order to top up their income coffers.
This is conjecture on my part, but once the oil price starts to recover, I think that we will see a very rapid recovery of the SP to North of £20 per share, which together with the dividend could offer an annual return in the order of 30% which isn't too bad for the largest company in the FTSE.
Alternatively, if the market takes exception to a cut in the dividend, of say £1 per share and adopts a P/E of 12, we could see the SP drop to £12, meaning an overall return of -20% on the year.
So, in essence, you pays your money and you takes your choice.
Historically, Shell has never cut the divi, but we live in extraordinary times, and there is a first time for everything, with Dividend cover continuing to slip, even though in previous years such as 2015 and 2016, the dividend has not been covered.
see https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-a-shares-eur0.07/dividends

My money is on the dividend being maintained at $1.88 per share, which is why I think that this is a bargain, and time to catch the falling knife, before we all catch Covid 19 and it turns out to be a nasty cold that regrettably will hasten the end of life for some poorly individuals, just the same as the 'Flu virus does every year.
This may already be the bottom for the SP, at £16.61, once investors have had the weekend chance to digest the ludicrous carnage over the last week.
I shall be in on Monday morning, and expect the SP to be North of £18 by the end of the week.
A very bold statement, I know.
I also expect RRE and TXP to make significant gains this week, once sanity has returned.
By way of comparison, the SPs at today's date are
RDSA £16.61
RRE £14.05
TXP £0.345
Let's see which has performed best by the end of 2020, most of my money is on TXP.

Have a great 2020 everybody, I hope that you all survive the covid19 sniffles, and besides, if it's an epidemic the demand for gas from Crematoria will spike the gas price, so it's a win all round really.

I like to think that lateral thinking is one of my talents.
So here's one from left field.
As we all know, Covid 19 is going to kill millions of people.
It has to be said that the poor unfortunate victims are going to be pretty infectious, and we all know what happened with the foot and mouth epidemic, funeral pyres everywhere.
I don't think that will happen, but the bodies will all have to be cremated, and that burns an awful lot of gas.
So, in the same way that the Beast from the East spiked gas prices, the gas price is going to rocket, innit?
So, worldwide demand for gas is going to drive up the price, we can forward sell at a much higher price, and everyone's happy?
Apart from the TXP investors that have to be cremated, of course.
My deepest condolences.
At least we have plenty of gas to fuel demand.
However, if you have held TXP for two years, the shares will be exempt from IHT inheritance tax.
Oh, and if your shares are in a SIPP, that is excluded from your Estate as well, so there are loads of positives here.
Keep smiling everyone and stay warm, but not too near the fire, because they don't fock about at the Crematorium.

Very true Duster, but it behaves like an AIM stock most of the time, Shell doesn't, usually that is.
The ludicrous thing about the RDSA price is that the analists (intentional) that spend careers analysing Shell are still reiterating as below
Broker Recommendations for Royal Dutch Shell A (RDSA)
Date Broker Rating Old Target New Target Change
07-Jan-20 Credit Suisse Outperform 2,900.00 2,800.00 Reiteration
07-Jan-20 Barclays Equal-weight 2,850.00 2,850.00 Reiteration
Nobody had a sniffle then, but what has really changed?
Just thought that I would flag it up - Shell roared back 4 years ago, as I am sure that we will too.

It's funny how AIM stocks can sometimes behave like FTSE stocks, and vice versa.
Look at what happened to Shell four years ago.
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary-chart.html?fourWayKey=GB00B03MLX29GBGBXSET1
It roared back like an AIM stock, after it dived with the oil price, even though the dividend was maintained at the same level.
It will be interesting to see what happens this time.
Have a look at my thoughts on the RDSA chat board - posts there are like hens' teeth.
RRE should roar back, just like Shell should imho.

This is a little off-piste for me, but I have an allegiance to Shell due to family connections.
Have a look at my post on the RDSA board, and pick holes in it, if you like.
It is a prime example of the top FTSE share behaving like an AIM stock, just as it did in January 2016
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/summary/company-summary-chart.html?fourWayKey=GB00B03MLX29GBGBXSET1
Shell is such a massive company, the daily trades exceed the market caps of most AIM companies, many times over.
Anything that I say is irrelevant to its share price movements.
Unlike AIM stocks, the spread is infinitessimally small, although you will have to pay a little bit of stamp duty that you will hardly notice.
The other thing is that there is no ramping or dramping on the chat board, as there is virtually no chat - usually about 25 posts per annum. The bigger the share, the quieter the board.
Worth a look imho.
Have a look at it and tell me what you think, if I am talking Borrocks again, I am sure that you will let me know.

Shell is the most important dividend share on the UK stock market, with many Pension Funds relying on it to pay its payees.
Shell has yet to reduce or pass on its dividend.
Whilst it is possible that the dividend may be reduced, if last year's dividend of $1.88 per share is maintained, ie £1.47 per share at an exchange rate of $1.28 per £, the dividend yield will be 8.85%.
At this SP I think that the market has factored in a reduced dividend, even though the large buy-backs of shares have reduced the amount of dividend that will need to be paid.
Let us therefore assume that the dividend yield range is 5 to 6% as an average, the implied projected dividend this year is in the 80 pence to £1 range.
If this happens, perversely, many funds would need to acquire Shell shares in order to top up their income coffers.
This is conjecture on my part, but once the oil price starts to recover, I think that we will see a very rapid recovery of the SP to North of £20 per share, which together with the dividend could offer an annual return in the order of 30% which isn't too bad for the largest company in the FTSE.
Alternatively, if the market takes exception to a cut in the dividend, of say £1 per share and adopts a P/E of 12, we could see the SP drop to £12, meaning an overall return of -20% on the year.
So, in essence, you pays your money and you takes your choice.
Historically, Shell has never cut the divi, but we live in extraordinary times, and there is a first time for everything, with Dividend cover continuing to slip, even though in previous years such as 2015 and 2016, the dividend has not been covered.
see https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-a-shares-eur0.07/dividends

My money is on the dividend being maintained at $1.88 per share, which is why I think that this is a bargain, and time to catch the falling knife, before we all catch Covid 19 and it turns out to be a nasty cold that regrettably will hasten the end of life for some poorly individuals, just the same as the 'Flu virus does every year.
This may already be the bottom for the SP, at £16.61, once investors have had the weekend chance to digest the ludicrous carnage over the last week.
I shall be in on Monday morning, and expect the SP to be North of £18 by the end of the week.
A very bold statement, I know.
I also expect RRE and TXP to make significant gains this week, once sanity has returned.
By way of comparison, the SPs at today's date are
RDSA £16.61
RRE £14.05
TXP £0.345
Let's see which has performed best by the end of 2020, most of my money is on TXP.
There will probably be a dozen or so posts on here in the next 10 months, so it will be easy to scroll back.
Have a great 2020 everybody, I hope that you all survive the covid19 sniffles.

Alfa 1750mk1
I think that you are absolutely correct.
It is a real puzzle as to why the SP has performed as it has.
The market is a fickle mistress.
We can probably all remember when the oil price dropped to $20 and Shell dropped to £11.50 in spite of maintaining the dividend and offering a yield in excess of 10%, and the SP quickly bounced back. That was an utter nonsense, as Shell is an end to end producer and retailer and the oil price has relatively little impact on its profitability, only on its net asset value, temporarily.
RRE is more exposed to the oil price, but still profitable at these oil price levels, with no debt, so a low price has a temporary reduction on profitability, but as the SP is totally covered by cash in the bank, the SP seems to ignore the income stream anyway.
It would be very interesting to see what would happen to the SP if a special dividend of £15 per share were to be issued, I think that it would still be worth £10 per share - go on AA - I double dare you!
GLA. let's hope for a better week next week.

Groover, I think that you are absolutely right.
Our fundamentals are rock solid, with huge potential reserves still to be disclosed, massive potential for multiples of our reserves with Cascadura once testing is complete, two exploration wells lined up that are multifold production targets, and more. Furthermore, we have a local market for all of our gas, and a Government that wants to pay for the infrastructure, albeit with golden handcuffs.
News flow to come includes
Value of the condensate oils that are a by-product of the gas.
Gas and condensate Flow rates for the upper section of Cascadura.
Second deeper drill for Cascadura, into the lower levels.
Updated 2P reserves including Coho 1.
Details for the total flow rates for Cascadura.
Reserves for Cascadura.
Spud dates for Chinook and Royston.
Possible successes for Chinook and Royston, and news of when Coho comes on stream.
Our Market Cap is £63 million versus BPC at £86 million, and they haven't even got the money to do an exploratory drill, so the chance of a placing there is pretty high, whereas we have the cash in the bank, plus production to fund our plans.

It looks like I called the bottom with my little buy this morning.

On Exchange AIM MTF
At Best
03-Mar-2020
EQ
28-Feb-2020 08:49:55
Stock Name Quantity Price Consideration
Transaction Type: Buy
Stock Details
TOUCHSTONE
EXPLORATION
COM SHS NPV 16,393 £ 0.304625 £ 4993.72
(DI/RES)
Commission:
Total:
5.99
Bargain Conditions: None 4,999.71
Very happy, not smug with this, I am down over £50k this week on TXP alone, but this helped to sweeten the pill.
Next week will be interesting, but any good news should lift us clear of 40 pence, and hopefully resume the upward trajectory that we were enjoying before the Global downturn.
We may have to clear an overhang of placing shares for a while, but it looks to me like many have already been traded.
We also know that North haven't sold any up until their TR1, and seem to be keen to maintain a just sub 10% stake, as otherwise they would not have subscribed for 3,750,000 shares.
Canada placees are tied in for three months, by which time we should be well clear of the placing price and any selling should be absorbed without any visible effect. Besides which the Canada market is far smaller than the UK one, with much lower volumes.
So unless the world falls in, I hope that we will be back to 50 pence by the end of March.
Hope everyone has a good weekend, I think that we have a good week ahead of us. Don't kick me too much if we are at 25 pence on Monday, but I cannot see that happening.
GLA

The true might of The Beast has yet to be appreciated by the market.
Money spewing out of the ground so fast that it will have an effect on T&T GNP.
It will be pretty good for us as well!
Let it roar!

Very happy to average up at these levels.
Madness

I think that we are all truly miserable with the effect of the effing Covid 19 virus.
The crazy thing about our SP freefall is that we are currently only producing 1750 boepd and the oil price is relatively unimportant and if it is below $50 we actually make more money. As a percentage of our share price it is probably about 25%.
Our future gas sales are guaranteed to the Trinidad Gov Oil and Gas co and at higher than world prices, and likely to remain so.
Furthermore, we are paid in US Dollars, which has to be good for us with a Canada/UK base.

It just doesn't make sense, we should be far more resilient, but somebody, more than one, have been selling.

I am not going to hunt for culprits, but if you did, that was a very shrewd move, wish I had done too.

Ah well, we should motor back north once things settle down a bit.

AHHHHHHGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That's better.

GLA

Another skeleton has fallen out of the closet.
It won't be the last.
Criminal proceedings top to bottom.
Directors will probably pass the buck downstream to some middle ranking Chartered Accountants.
Ernst & Young will be checking their PI cover. It will be very expensive for them.
The FCA HAVE to make an example here, otherwise it is a pointless organisation.
Lawyers will be rubbing their hands........

If it isn't suspended I can see an open at £7.00 then straight into auction and who knows where it will be spat out.
My guess is £6.50 as there will be the mother of all selling.