Member Info for dallo

It is the studios not advertising that is the jewel in the crown
Amazon, Disney, Apple, Warner Bros, Liberty, Comcast, et al
will ignite the content wars
Netflix cannot make Line of Duty, Bodyguard, Poldark, Love Island, Downton Abbey
Vanity Fair, The Chase, Prime Suspect, The Bay, Victoria and hundreds of other shows
worldwide not mentioning Coronation Street, Emmerdale et al
As Bill Clinton said " It is the Economy stupid" with ITV it is" the Studios stupid "
Forget about ITV as a TV advertising business think more of it as a major entertainment
content/ talent business with 40.000 hours of quality shows and countless hours
of archive content.

The 1st Quarter results were always going to be poor
and were well flagged.
Brexit uncertainty in the first 4 months smashed confidence
and the advertising numbers reflect this.
The World Cup last summer was a once in 4 year boost but entailed large overhead spend .
ITV's new 2019 shows to date were winners ( over 7m viewers each).
ITV Studios heading for an EBITA of £ 270m this year which, given a conservative
multiple of 20 times EBITA, would value it as an independent company at £5.4billion
versus the total market cap of ITV of £4.7billion.
Total family viewing still growing at 4% in Quarter1( 3% in 2018) .
ITV Hub users up 29% to 28.4 million( 22 million in 2018).
Southbank on the market with apparently offers of over £250m even though
the Dame is keeping quiet until a deal is done.
Total dividends in 2019 and 2020 of c 17p
Liberty could buy another 10% of ITV for just £ 470m giving it a near 20% holding
and a huge bargaining hand in any takeover battle ( inevitable now imho)
The vultures are sitting on the branches and ready to swoop imho.

Trent
Over 50% of ITV 's Revenues come from non-TV direct advertising
and ITV Studios is fast becoming the jewel in the crown with Revenues
heading to over $ 2billion.
Similar US Studios are currently being priced at 20+ times earnings and over 3 times revenues with a
further premium for archived quality content.
The whole of ITV plc is on a P/E of 10
Something has to give and soon imho.

Trent
Most investors would prefer re-investing their dividends
in a rising share price particularly if the company is recovering
from a difficult period like ITV.
Re-investing in a moribund or declining share price is not my preference.
ITV's share price has not moved up much since ex-dividend date so still
good value if you are a believer like me.
ATB

The Quarter 1 results released last week by STV ( who hold the ITV 1 rights in Scotland)
were very encouraging for ITV with advertising down 1-2% versus expected 5% down,
Liberum reckons this a positive read-through for ITV 's 1st Quarter results due next
week.
Given the Brexit drama in the first quarter any positive outturn on advertising ( less bad
than expected ) will hopefully boost sentiment in the ITV share price.
However, today's action in the SP is disappointing.
Fingers crossed for next week---a big moment for the Dame and us all.

Morgan Stanley revising estimates for ITV following a major
improvement in the UK TV and other media advertising outlook
following a better than expected Quarter 1
The IPA Bellwether survey shows total advertising budgets have been
revised upwards to the highest levels in one and half years.
Morgan Stanley says ITV has not been part of the post Brexit delay rally
in UK focussed stocks as yet but this set to change.
Given ITVs low P/E ratio, Free cash flow yield of c7% and a dividend yield of c6%
the share could bounce sharply, MS added.
The prospect of massive Industry consolidation and surging streaming/TV content
values add to the case for a significant re-rating.
We are on the move at last imho

Nige
The Brexit delay is not helpful for the UK economy or
businesses but it may be the catalyst for calm national and political
reflection with the almost universal acceptance of a crash out no deal
Brexit as a catastrophic folly which most feel is off the table .
Goldman Sachs estimate that the UK economy has leaked £600m a week
since the Referendum in 2016 in lost investment etc.
Confidence will return eventually and everything bar a no deal is now on the
table including a General Election and a Confirmatory Peoples Vote.
ITV remains attractive at current prices and any predator(s) may look
beyond the current Brexit mess and take a long view in this fast
consolidating Industry.

The announcement of the new Disney SVOD streaming service
yesterday will have a dramatic effect on the Industry with its subscription
prices set to undercut Netflix and other providers ( including Britbox).
However, the value of content providers such as ITV and Entertainment One
are set to soar as the Industry battles for the best content and talent says
Ian Whittaker of Liberum in a note issued today.
The attractions of ITV as a takeover target are increasing by the day.

davielad

Your answer begs the question
Why the hell are these figureheads there in the first place?
A medieval anachronism or pure English folly.
Bring back control to the wonderful House of Commons which has taken c3 years
to try and sort out one issue--Brexit.
When will it get around to dealing with the knife crime and social horrors of
modern day Britain.
Anyway enough on the topic--back to ITV

No sign of any funds buying pre-ex-dividend today which is a pity.
The result of the EU Emergency Summit later now vital for tomorrow's
price action in ITV shares
Fingers crossed

Davielad
UK Democracy lesson as follows;
Head of State-----------Queen Elizebeth (Hereditary, unelected from German ancestors)
Head of Church of England------------- See above
House of Lords --------- See above but less German more Etonian Latin
European Parliament ---elected by the European people
Enough said

Nige
I fully agree with you on a no deal scenario but this crazy
Brexit has seen some hair raising moments.
Tomorrow will be telling

Liam Fox warns that a Customs Union will stop the UK from
doing its own trade deals.
As Trade Secretary how has plonker been doing then in post Referendum
trade deal frenzy
Palestine ( Labour loves this)
Israel ( Labour hates this)
Pacific Islands ( all thousands of them)
Faroe Islands ( sounds fishy to me)
Chile ( not as chilly as here!)
Switzerland ( Rees Mogg and Brexiteers need access to their cash)
Caribbean ( Coconuts and Rum secure for UK shoppers)
Eastern and Southern Africa ( arms shipments and British mercenaries secure)
Next stop China and the US --don't worry your grandchildren will find out
the results of these negotiations.

It is all about Brexit (again) this week.
A long extension and /or a soft Brexit deal will drive the
FTSE and ITV higher and negate the ex-dividend drop on Thursday imho.
Ordinarily, the ex-div drop should equal the dividend payable but all depends
on the state of the FTSE after tomorrow's EU emergency Summit.
A deal could see ITV really motor on Thursday despite going ex-div but
conversely, a no deal could be scary for UK shares.

Marineville
You are indeed correct .
ITV paid a Special Dividend of 10p in 2016 plus ordinary
dividends of 6.5p.
In 2017 a special dividend of 5p plus ordinary dividends of 7.2p were paid.
The Dame quite rightly stopped the special payouts in 2018 but confirmed that dividends
in 2019 and 2020 would be at least. 8p p.a.
This is the smart move at this stage of the cycle and with Brexit concerns.

There is always a suspicion that Liberty / Goldman can easily
control the ITV share price given Liberty c10% shareholding in ITV and its stock lending
practices with Goldman.
I firmly believe there will be major corporate activity in the Global media/ content
industry this year with Apple, Amazon, Disney, Liberty, et al set to make major bets
on streaming and TV on demand.
ITV is a prime target with its over 40,000 hours of digitalised content ( and massive archives
some of which is being remastered and digitalised) and vastly undervalued Studios business.
I maintain that ITV Studios is valued close to £5b in line with other major International studios.
ITV is aiming to bring non-advertising revenues down to around 30% of total revenus
( 50% at present) but remember almost all of the advertising revenues hit the bottom line
while the margin in the Studios is around 15% ( talent costs big money!) .
I remain very optimistic if Brexit is sorted.
best to all.

The FTSE is mainly comprised of large International based
companies with sizeable US dollar earnings and little exposure
to the UK domestic market and the Brexit uncertainty.
ITV is a mainly UK focussed company ( although ITV Studios has increasing
International revenues) and is hugely cyclical in terms of the UK economy.
It's operational gearing to the state of the UK economy (business confidence/ advertising) is
massive with a 1% increase in UK GNP leading to increased TV advertising of c 10-15% with
an equivalent increase in ITV's advertising revenues and a major increase in ITV's EBITDA
( Revenue cash conversion of over 90% in ITV)
We need certainty on Brexit quickly to allow UK business confidence to return
and for ITV to benefit.
Patience

It is a very detailed report on ITV by Morgan Stanley and while
it keeps a target price at 125p for now , it says a bull case target price of
180p is envisaged if political uncertainty ( Brexit) is removed and advertising
improves.
So it is all about Brexit

Low multiples, possible green shoots in advertising says
Morgan Stanley
"If nascent green shoots could be supported by greater political certainty,
ITV , trading at a p/e ratio for 2019 of 10 on numbers depressed by incremental
investment, a free cash flow yield ( FCF) of 7%, dividend yield of 6.5%, and a sound
balance sheet, could bounce sharply"
Morgan Stanley maintain price target of 125p which seems at odds with its slightly
upbeat analysis.

Fully agree with comments that the Brexit bad news is
reflected in the SP and conversely any breakthrough this week
on, maybe, a softer Brexit will be a huge catalyst for a bounce
in the SP.
Also the sale of the Southbank complex could be imminent with a
potential £250m in gross proceeds hitting the ITV Balance Sheet.
I am in for the long term here and hold a substantial amount of shares.
The share goes ex-dividend ( 5.8p) next week ( 11th April) with payment in May.