Member Info for dallo

Still no sells showing on Level 2 after 4 and half hours trading
The MMs are trying to keep a lid on this .

100% buys today thus far
Augurs well for a good finish

Nige
I just have a feeling we are reaching a critical stage
in the evolution of the global content/streaming industry
with major consolidation about to unfold.
ITV appear to be very vulnerable with a valuation representing
pocket change to the mega players in the industry.
Sadly ITV has few defences against a hostile takeover
I could be totally wrong but I think the endgame is approaching.
A problem with Britbox and the BBC could be the last straw.
A very interesting week ahead after a horrible few weeks.

McCall's Britbox collaboration with BBC is her last chance
to retain ITV's independence imho.
The obvious strategy is for ITV to be part of a major streamer
like AT&T( HBO), Disney, Comcast, Netflix, Apple, Liberty et al and use
it's valuable content and talent within a Global entertainment giant.
Netflix intends to spend $12b or so on content this year ---It could buy
all of ITV for 6 months content spend.

Nige
The Capital Group has been invested for a number of years
and obviously bought in at much higher levels.
Something has got to give here as the SP is being smashed for no
apparent reason.

The Capita Group now has over 11% of the total ITV shares after the
purchase of another 40 million shares over the last few days.
The Capital Group has $1.3 trillion under management and are serious
operators.
They haven't invested over £600m plus in ITV without looking at exit strategies.
If they reinvest their dividend ( £20m approx) it will up their holding again.
Follow the smart money.
Definitely last post from me today---I am going for a brew.

Franc
The costs you are referring to are sunken costs long
since dealt with in previous financial years.
The South Bank site is held on the ITV Balance Sheet at cost/book value so
proceeds will hit ITV Bank account directly( after perhaps CGT) .
The original idea to develop the site by ITV for an estimated £100m was
thankfully knocked on the head by the Dame.
There is a pledge to the Pension Scheme on the site of c£50m which will
have to be replaced by another ITV asset.
The proceeds will reduce debt while a redevelopment by ITV could have increased
debt by £100m.
The new leases ITV are paying rent on have intrinsic value and rent can be set
off against Corporation Tax as an operating expense.
The guide price for the site is in excess of £150m but there are rumours that
bids in excess of £200m are on the table .
We shall see in time.

Shaw
I value ITV Studios on the basis of EBITA times the current Industry
multiple of c20.
The content library of ITV is an asset, additional to the operating performance
Check out what Disney, Comcast et al paid in recent times for content.
Netflix put out 1,800 hours of new content in 2018 with more expected in 2019.
New and existing streamers such as Netflix,Apple,Warner,Amazon,Disney and
others are expected to spend over $50b over the next 2 years on content.
The content wars have started and prices have gone through the roof and
that comment comes from Reed Hastings of Netflix.
In addition to the 40,000 hours of digitalised content ITV has a vast archive
some of which is to digitalised.
The market value of Netflix is $160b and is on a p/e of 130 times.

ITV's biggest shareholder,The Capital Group-the mega US fund -has increased
it's shareholding in ITV from 10.05% to 11.04% .
A vote of confidence maybe.
SP still down so no reaction

Molokai

Your concerns about the overall debt and pension deficit in ITV
are misplacedin my humble opinion.
The total debt of c £980m is marginally above 1 years EBITA and with
the imminent sale of the Southbank site for c£250m , the debt is not an issue.
The pension deficit is actuarily calculated on the basis of long bond yields
which are at historic lows and even a small rise in yields will wipe out the deficit.
The ITV Studios with over 40,000 hours of digitalised content and a vast archive
of programmes could be worth c £5b on the basis of 20 times current EBITA ( higher
values in the US) if viewed as a standalone business.
The current SP is so disappointing in the context of the above but hopefully
value will triumph in the end.

3 weeks of relentless selling continuing today .
When will the worm turn?
I never thought I would see the SP at these levels.
Need some positive news soon.
How about the sale of the Southbank for £250m
Patience as always

With close to £200m coming to shareholders in the
dividend payout this week, a 50% reinvestment of same
could have a dramatic effect on the share price.
I await Thursday with cautious optimism ( as always).

You are right to be skeptical after the "Annus Horribilis" and the crash in the share
price.
However, let us examine the potential positives here

1 Lupuzor
A partnership with a large Pharma to develop Lupuzor

2 Elro Pharma / Ureka merger
A trade buyer found or an announcement to float on European
Stock Market

3 Extension Trials
A positive result from the limited Extension Trials

4 Incanthera
Incanthera announce a date to float on AIM

5 Offer for Immupharma
A bid for the entire company for a price that would be petty cash
for a large Pharma

I fully recognise that none or some of the above may happen
but what if they do---you never know
We live in hope.

Big buy has gone through --412,500 @ 9.9p
Volume spiked to over 800,000
Interesting

The fifth season of Love Island will commence on Monday 3rd June
with ITV committing to "bespoke training" and enhanced aftercare to ALL
contestants, not just those who ask for it.
Hopefully, this may cheer investors somewhat after a harrowing few weeks.
A new series , Hatton Cross , starts tonight which runs for four nights and looks
like it could be interesting.
Keep the faith.

Nige
I intend to reinvest the dividends and like you, I am looking
for some positive news here to break the downward cycle.
Carolyn McCall came in as CEO with a huge reputation and has yet to
deliver. Her trusted Finance Director Kennedy orchestrated the sale of ARM
and I suspect they are weighing up more options than a simple " Strategic refresh" .
It is painful at the moment and doubt creeps in but worth hanging on for a while longer.
We just need the share price to stabilise and see what this management team are made of.

Nige
Regarding a possible takeover price, I suspect an offer with an initial premium
of 30/40% over the share price on the day of any announcement.
However I feel the SP has found a floor after the dreadful last few weeks
and will move up gradually over the short term and particularly once
Love Island is aired.
There could be a potential bounce at the end of this week with the reinvestment of the
dividends by certain shareholders(myself included).
All things being equal I can see the ITV share price move to 120-125p in the coming
weeks .
I cannot see the Board accepting anything less than 200p a share given the value of
the Studios alone.
My humble opinions for what there are worth.

Nige
It now looks inevitable that ITV will lose its independence
and I would not surprised if corporate activity in this regard
has already begun.
The company now has no defences against attack with the lowly
share price and ineffectual ( and unfortunate ) management.
The key question is at what price will it be taken out for and will there
be a bidding war.
I feel the end is nigh.

Lucy Spraggan , a former contestant on the X Factor lashes out
on Twitter against ITV and its lack of aftercare for contestants on
its reality shows calling for, you guessed it , the review of Love Island and
other similar ITV shows.
Using more F words than a drunken sailor she says that the suicides
will continue unless ITV starts looking after its contestants.
No mention of the hundreds of international TV stations who have reality shows.
No just ITV and all her views on Twitter the home of safe and young people
friendly discussion and content not too mentioned totally unregulated and vile.
Dirty tricks at work here .

The competition for summertime ratings is hotting up( no pun intended)
with ITV rivals aided by black arts PR trying to get Love Island axed.
after the Jeremy Kyle Show fiasco.
The share price ,like so many other UK companies in the past,
is being manipulated down to bargain basement levels to assist the
circling predators and to set up the Investment banks to harvest huge fees
when the takeover battle commences.
Dreadfully sad to see anyone take their own life but was it the JK Show or the sad and depressing
lives of some people.
Thousands of young people sadly suffer from severe depression and social media has led
to horrific consequences for many young people.
Facebook et al can show violence, murder and countless horrors which are viewed
by teenagers but Love island with young adults in their prime and of their own free
will are on holidays on a Paradise Island and become well known albeit for a short time.
Better than working for Sports Direct in a warehouse or stacking shelves in Tesco.
Dame Carolyn needs to fight back against the orchestrated hysteria .
Finally nearly 200 young people knifed to death in the UK so far this year --
anyone calling for a complete ban on knives to anyone under 25 .