Member Info for dallo

May's request for Article 50 to be extended to the 30th June
has predictably added to the uncertainty and knocked ITV today
with advertisers reluctant to commit to spending until clarity on Brexit
is apparent.
What a mess

H-hi
It is all about content and talent ( studios) in this
new world of digital entertainment with the big players
committed to spending c $100 b on new content over
the next 2/3 years.
Netflix alone is going to spend $15b on new content in 2019
My point is that buying ITV ( including Studios) and 40,000 hours of content
at a premium to ITV's current market cap of £5b is small spuds in the
overall context of the anticipated Industry investment.
ITV has produced fantastic shows over the years ( too many to mention)
and are imho better than 90% of the dross on Netflix et al

Apple TV to announce a new streaming service next week
and Netflix says it will not participate in it.
Apple is going to provide original content with some
big name Hollywood stars fronting new shows.
The battle for content is fierce with Amazon, Disney and Warner Media
all about to launch new streaming services.
Netflix admits that the cost of new content is increasing dramatically
with the new entrants adding to price pressures.
Suddenly ITV with over 40,000 hours of content and a huge archive
looks very tasty The value of ITV Studios must be north of £5b
and maybe Apple may be a natural predator.
It has a symmetry after all with no rebranding if it moves for ITV
or should I say Itv .
Interesting times ahead.

It is all about next Tuesday's vote in the Commons now.
May's deal is dead as a dodo so a postponement of Article 50 is almost
certain now ( 1/ 6 on with the bookies) with a no deal Brexit and leaving
on the 29th March 2019 a long shot ( 9/2 with the bookies)
Brexit is in serious jeopardy and a General Election looking likely.
A no deal off the table will be positive while a General Election will
lead to more uncertainty.
It is all to play for but not good for ITV and UK business.

The Dame has overseen a near 30% drop in the share price
since she took over in January 2018.
She has until the end of this year to boost the share price
to c 200p either by selling the company or floating ITV Studios.
Time is running out for her as no CEO can survive a bombed-out
share price for too long.

From last weeks pump and dump to this weeks dump and
dump.
Incanthera deal awaited with only 3 weeks to end of the extension
period.
Badly need some positive news here.

H-hi,
I think you are correct about the refresh being a dubious strategy
as ITV needs to be part of a bigger Global player to affect the necessary
synergies in this rapidly evolving industry.
For example, Virgin Media ( Liberty) has three TV channels plus three
sports channels allied to its subscription broadband service in Ireland.
The sports channels show all the Champions League matches which are available
exclusively to its subscribers plus other sports.
This is a model favoured by Malone and rumoured to one he would like
to establish in the UK also.
Other big operators are looking at the UK with similar strategies notably
Amazon, Apple, Disney and many more.
McCall's Refresh is a holding position and she has other options which are not
yet apparent at the moment .
It is only a matter of time imho before we see some significant Corporate
action in ITV.
The lowly share price represents a tempting opportunity for a potential
acquirer and I doubt that ITV will remain independent for much longer.
My own thoughts and do your own research.
GLA

Entertainment One share price up c 65% over past year
and is now on a P/E ratio of 25 times.
Contrast that with ITV whose share price is down 25% from last
year's high of 182p and is on a P/E of 9 times.
If ITV Studios was floated on a similar P/E to Entertainment One
it would be valued at c £5b.
Time for McCall to extract value for ITV shareholders and list ITV Studios
on Nasdaq and in London imho

In the near term the share price of ITV ( and most of the FTSE stocks)
will be driven by the Brexit votes next week.
Uncertainty is killing confidence in the UK economy at the moment
and a resolution to this mess is needed now.
If a no deal crash out Brexit is voted down and/or May's deal accepted then a
major relief rally in the FTSE ( and ITV in particular) is reasonably assured imho.
A delay to Brexit through a postponement of Article 50 is not ideal as it will
prolong the uncertainty in my view unless it is to facilitate the formalisation of
a deal.

UT Final close at 136.15p up 3.85%

Macrocks

I was loath to mention the B word as I feel like Bill Murray
in Groundhog Day when the alarm clock goes off at 6am to the sound
of Sonny and Cher singing " I've got you Babe" and I turn on Sky News to
find its yesterday once more ( was that a Carpenters' song??).
Bill Murray's Groundhog Day apparently lasted 8 years, 8 months and 16 days
while Brexit is only c 2 years 9 months old but could beat Murray's ordeal quite comfortably.
I do agree though that any sort of resolution to Brexit will fire up the FTSE
and ITV in particular.
ATB

For those of us who are longterm( and suffering) shareholders in ITV
I feel a significant change of mood has occurred following yesterday's results.
It was not so much the figures themselves but the realisation that ITV is much more
than the sum of its parts.
The diversified nature of the business, the reducing dependence on volatile TV
advertising, the emergence of the Studios as a jewel in the crown, the direct
focus on the customer/advertisers in a multimedia offering, the Britbox investment
to challenge Netflix et al with world-class productions, the strong financials, secure dividends,
an audience reach in the UK/Ireland/Australia/US and more with its top content watched by
8-10m people on a daily/weekly basis allied to a highly respected and driven CEO and a beefed up
managed team.
Ian Whittaker , the top City analyst at Liberum has been criticised for his consistently bullish
ratings on ITV and accused of being out of touch with the major banks' analysts' views on ITV
but he has never wavered in his opinions and could have the last laugh imho.
Oh I forgot to mention the massive consolidation underway in the content/media industry in which
ITV is a prime target but any takeover offer will have to be at a premium well above what
might have been muted just a few months ago.
GLA

Franc
I get your point but do not forget that the full redevelopment costs
of the Southbank site were estimated at over £100m and even as high as £150m.
The costs of c£50m incurred to date were necessary to bring the site / buildings
up to modern standards and hopefully will add to the sale price.
The £50 m asset security in the Pension Scheme can be replaced with another asset
in ITV' portfolio and not necessarily cash.
Rental costs are high but the London leases have value too and rent can be set off against
profits for tax purposes while developing Southbank would have been a capital item
either funded from additional borrowings or out of cash( ie Shareholders).
McCall quickly figured this out as EPS and P/E are more important than
housing everyone in one of the most expensive and congested parts of London.
The right decision was made and shareholders should welcome it imho.

I would be shocked if the share price dropped below £1
even with a crash out Brexit which now appears unlikely.
Do not forget the sale of the Southbank site could yield c£250m
which( few brokers have commented on) which if set off against debt
would make the Balance Sheet look even stronger.
ITV is becoming ,in the words of McCall. "increasingly diversified" but advertising
is still very important to the bottom line.
A satisfactory outcome to the current Brexit horror show could dramatically
improve the advertising outlook and a massive re-rating of the beaten down FTSE
with ITV a major beneficiary imho

Wednesday

I am basing the potential value of ITV Studios as a standalone
entity on the comparable valuations of Film and TV production and
distribution companies in the US ( see Zacks Industry analysis -February 2019)
Based on US Film and Production Industry average P/E Ratios of 20 times and Price
to Revenues ratios of 2.6 times , ITV Studios (with over 40,000 hours of content (digitalized))
on this basis could be valued as follows;

P/E basis EBITDA of £255m x 20 times = £ 5.1b

Revenues basis £1.7b x 2.6 times = £ 4.4b

Maybe just musings on my part but shows how the Market may be
underpricing ITV .

I keep coming back to ITV Studios and am amazed that its
value as a major International content provider is lost in the general
view of ITV as a pure TV advertiser in a declining industry.
With c £ 1.7b in revenues and an EBITDA of £ 255m, ITV Studios
could easily be valued in excess of £5b as an independent business.
Furthermore, the results show non-advertising revenues as a % of overall revenue
increasing to 62% well ahead of McCall plan to reduce advertising revenue
to just 30% of the total ITV revenues by end of 2021.
Crazy share price at the moment with only LIberum holding
fast on its target price of 240p.
A takeover of ITV this year now looks a certainty if this depressed share
price persists.
ITV better served as part of Amazon, Apple ,Liberty et al than going it alone imho.

The effusive comments by Zimmer and Dimitriou on the progress
of Ureka's Peptide technology appear at odds with the strategic decision
to dispose of the company or were they pumping up its credentials to attract
a buyer.
Maybe some French Pharma may be tempted to acquire it for its technology
at a price north of €10m--you never know !!

Relatity ??

Einstein's Theory of Relativity posits that space and time are intrinsically
linked ( Spacetime) and have different values depending on the position
and viewpoint of the observer.
The Theory of Relativity seems to apply to Immu with different values applied
to the future share price depending on the viewpoint of the observer( investor)
Rally reversed quickly which suggests it may have been a pump and dump after all.

Sell to buy trading ratio so far today is roughly 2 to 1 ( c80 deals on the sell side
to c40 deals on the buy side) or approximately 1.8m shares sold to 900,000 shares
bought.
Selling appears to have abated in the last hours so let's see if this rally still has
legs.
The afternoon trading will be telling imho.

I agree that a possible pump and dump could be at
play again but the volumes( c15m shares) of the past 4 days suggest
something more substantive ( and leaky !).
A normal pump and dump might see further selling into the close
today particularly as today is Friday.
A rally this afternoon would conversely suggest other forces at work
with news possible next week.
As this is Immupharma and AIM your guess is as good as mine.
With a personal breakeven of c28p I will be watching this afternoon's trading
with some interest.
Best to all genuine investors particularly the long term( and suffering) ones like me