Member Info for dallo

Overall viewer numbers for the ITV channels in 2018 were the highest in a decade.

Also the proportion of ITV's non-advertising revenues in 2018 is expected to be over 50%
of total revenue and to grow to 65-70% of the total revenue by 2021.
No mention in BOA downgrade of the growth in ITV Studios and potential valuation
on a standalone basis.

5eights
Closed at 137.3p with a UT volume of 11.5 million shares or nearly
4p higher than last pre-auction trade price of 133.45 p and still showing further trades
after hours at 137.30p
A very strange and unusual after-hours pattern which may or may not mean
anything but bizarre nonetheless.

Marineville
It looks like you may get your targeted 140p today.
Reports of a delayed /canceled Article 50 hitting the wires
and Sterling getting a bounce.
It is now clear that Scarlett Johansson will not be joining Rees-Mogg, Boris
and the other ERG swingers at the No Deal party after all.
Just gone through 140p as I write
I intend to stay around
All the best

Marineville
I will not divulge my holding in ITV but it is significant
and probably too much in 1 share
With the market values of major Content /Studios in the US
ITV Studios as a standalone entity could be worth more
then the market cap of ITV.
Liberum has a target for ITV share price at 260p which everyone is skeptical
about but maybe that target is even too low if Disney, Apple, Liberty Media, Amazon et al
make a move
Content is King

Marineville
No offense taken
Just a feeling that the worm has finally turned and the intrinsic value
of ITV has come back into focus particularly with the potential uplift
in earning from the renegotiated deal with Sky and the sale of the Southbank
site for possibly £250m counteracting the expecting downturn in advertising revenues
of 10% in 2019.
Carolyn McCall is one smart lady and expect her to show her mettle very soon
By the way, I watch Netflix which is 90% dross and 10% watchable.

Marineville

Sorry it is not just me speculating but also Bloomberg Opinion
last week.
It is just the size of the jump in the SP that warranted a bit of commentary
on possible causes other than the Liberum note
Best of luck trading but I will stick to investing for the medium term here.

Is it just me or could there be more to this share price
rebound than the Liberum note.
Like the boy who cried wolf maybe the " eerie echo of the pre-Sky bid period"
as Bloomberg noted recently may be happening in ITV.
You might expect the share price to be weak ahead of the Brexit vote next week
but it is not.
Could there be a takeover approach in the offing?
Just surmising dyor

Ian Whittaker has expanded on his comments yesterday
in the Liberum note on the issue of the £120m uplift in annual revenues
from the new Sky/ITV deal.
He says that ITV will earn an additional £1 per month per Sky
subscriber --£1 x 12 x 10m subscribers= £120m in revenues
which go straight to profit. He extrapolated these numbers from the Sky/STV deal.
He is the first analyst to figure this out while Morgan Stanley
the house broker never mentioned it when downgrading ITV to 130p
last week
What a bunch of clowns

Really enjoying Manhunt with the excellent Martin Clunes
and looking forward to Cleaning Up with Sheridan Smith
about a gambling-addicted cleaning lady in a City broker who overhears
some juicy insider share information.
Surely that doesn't happen in the City anymore!
Anyway a nice bit of action in ITV today.
If Brexit gets sorted watch it soar imho.

Virgin/ ITV deal £35-£40m --correction

Liberum issued a note today on the Sky/STV deal in Scotland.
Ian Whittaker of Liberum , a 3 time nominated City analyst of the year
says that the Sky/STV deal is a retransmission deal in effect and with
the SKY/ ITV deal due for renewal this year it points to a possible uplift
in ITV revenues of c £120m over the medium term or a 15% uplift in consensus
earnings. This forecast is based on the Virgin /ITV deal done in 2018 which added £35-340m
to ITV annualised profits.
He also stated that early 2019 trading will not be great but not a disaster either
and even with a decline of 10% in advertising revenues in 2019( before cost savings)
the fall in the share price is overdone leaving ITV trading on P/ E ratio of
10 times adjusted 2019 earnings and a dividend yield of c6%.
Maintains target price of 260p bless him

Stop the negative vibes
Great shows on ITV this week--
Manhunt, Cleaning Up, Vera, Grantchester et al
7m expected to watch Dancing on Ice
Take a chill pill

Some positives

1 Non-advertising revenues represented c50% of overall revenues at the
end of September 2018( 9 months)
2 Strategic target to reduce advertising revenue % of the overall revenue to 30%-40%
within next 3 years
3 ITV Studios very valuable as a standalone business ( £5b maybe)
4 Sale of Southbank for c£250m in 2019 to reduce debt to relative insignificance.
5 Dividend of over 8p promised by McCall in each of the next 2 years
6 New shows plus world rugby cup, Love Island, Downton Abbey movie et al in 2019
7 Takeover possibility
8 Brexit gets sorted
9 VoD developed successfully
10 McCall has something up her sleeve to ward off potential predators
( Float ITV Studios on Nasdaq for example)
Just trying to cheer myself up
GLA

GS is totally in control here and has been for a long time.
No proper market in ITV and as the Bloomberg Opinion stated
bears an eerie echo of the pre Sky bid situation.

Hit 127p early and then smashed down again
FTSE looking strong and ITV down again
Depressing

Well IMMU is recruiting 500 for the MAP treatment.
All I am suggesting is that IF the results from the MAP are
sufficiently encouraging then a large Pharma may be tempted
to put Lupuzor into its development drugs programme particularly
if it got it cheap.
Bristol-Myers just bid for Calgene with a price tag of $74b
Why not punt on Lupuzor for $50m if MAP results look promising.
The market is pricing IMMU as a dead duck but you never know
with Biotechs!

Chris Hughes of Bloomberg comments today on the prospects
of a bid for ITV from some of the big Content players.
Unless McCall has more up her sleeve than last September's Corporate
Refresh he says that ITV has few defenses against a bid with it's share
price at 5 year lows.
He says that the share price slump has an eerie echo of the pre Skye bid situation
and suggests a takeout offer of 160p may be enough.
He says McCall must prove herself very quickly or ITV is vulnerable

That is why a larger Phase111 trial of maybe 1,000 Lupus patients
who are Antibody Positive may yield a significant outcome
for Lupuzor ( good or bad) .
First, let us see what transpires with the MAP where it is envisaged that
around 500 Lupus patients will be involved.
I am not trying to get too excited after the Annus Horriblis in 2018 but maybe
2019 will bring some better news.
If not then we all know the outcome

In the Lupuzor Phase 111 trials, the placebo group continued
to receive the normal standard of care for Lupus sufferers including
steroids, antibiotics and probably Benlysta ( the only Lupus drug available
but with lots of side effects).
So a 71% to 49% statistically significant reduction v placebo is quite impressive
in the context of Antibody Positive Lupus patients imho

The results from the MAP in particular and the Extension trials, in general,
will be very significant for the future of Lupuzor.
Remember the Phase 111 trial results showed Lupuzor demonstrated STATISTICALLY
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN THE DISEASE in the European cohort who
were Antibody Positive versus placebo ( 71% v 49% ).
Between 60 and 70% of all Lupus sufferers are Antibody Positive.
The MAP treatment will focus on European patients who are Antibody Positive
beginning in France and the UK and extending throughout the EU.
If the results of the MAP are consistent with the Phase 111 trial findings in the
European cohort of Antibody Positive patients then it could be a game changer
and inspire a larger Pharma to conduct a second Phase 111 trial based on Antibody
Positive Lupus patients alone ( ie 60-70 % of total Lupus sufferers)
Maybe a glass half full analysis but with a market cap of just over £15m
Immupharma could still reward the patient(brave) investor imho