Member Info for dallo

Britbox has over 500,000 subscribers in the US and is growing.
Britbox has done deals with BT, Freeview and Youview and it is only a matter of time before Virgin Media signs up .
Telcos and cable companies are key to streaming as your Smart TV has an embedded button on your remote control to directly to Netflix, Google etc.
Samsung has signed up to include Britbox in its smart TVs.
The UK is insisting that all smart TV producers follow suit and legislation is in train apparently.
This is to level the playing field in the UK where Netflix is now on most Smart TV remote controls.
I have a Sony Smart TV with a designated Netflix and Google play button on remote.
Other deals are in the pipeline following C4 and dont forget the Global market potential particularly Ireland, Australia, New Zealand,et al
Britbox will be a niche streamer and only needs 5 million + subscribers to add huge value to ITV.
Thats assuming that one of the big players dont pounce first in the escalating content war.
When the dust eventually settles there will only be 2 or 3 players controlling the Global content market imho.

I had thought I had seen it all but today takes the biscuit .
One of main reasons for the ITV share drop today was the fact that Kepler Cheuveraux downgraded ITV from buy to hold but....wait for it....INCREASED their price target from 130p to 150p.
I honestly give up on brokers and their madcap analysis.
Apart from our big fan Liberum no other broker has mention the hidden value of SDN and the ongoing retransmission negotiations with SKY.
GUARANTEED UP TOMORROW IMHO

It appears that the giant blood sucking squid( GS) has finished its gorging.
ITV share price moving back up.

Buyers moving in with volumes now up to 5m shares traded.
Todays low of 131.75p seemed mad on no news and contrary to brokers upgrades post update.
MMs and Goldman no doubt having a bit of fun today.

Now down 6p or 4.5% on no news and a tiny volume of 2.6 m shares dealt.
Strange indeed.

Obviously no direct link between Tullow and ITV but the general market sentiment
went very negative this morning with the early c 25% drop in Tullow adding to the downbeat
mood with a lot of FTSE 100/250 stocks falling back on very thin volumes.
That's my read on the situation early doors with no specific negative news on ITV to warrant
a 4% drop on very low volumes.

4% drop in SP today on 2 million shares traded.
This low volume tells it all --MMs adjusting positions on FTSE 100/250 shares
after a 20% drop in Tullow Oil shares, the former FTSE 100 darling.
The share price will bounce from these artificial levels later in the day imho.

Interesting that there was no mention in the update on the current negotiations with SKY on retransmission rights which based on the deal SKY did with STV could add an extra c£120m to ITV's revenues each year( all to the bottom line) or any mention of SDN revenues ( buried in non advertising revenues)
Liberum think a SKY retransmission deal could add c3p to the EPS which should bump the overall SP by 20p+ all things being equal.
A successful renegotiation of the SDN licence could add another 20p+ to the share price as it would copperfasten a valuation of the SDN business at £800 m or more
So a lot of hidden gems still under the mattress and may be revealed soon.

I fully agree
Nolupus is a sensible and contrarian voice on this board and certainly has my respect.
Like most here I am in the red but have a gut feeling that the game is not over yet.
At a valuation of just £13m Immupharma may offer a good opportunity for another Pharma to maybe reverse into it ( reverse takeover) and the merged entity could raise funds to complete another Phase 3 trial based on more focussed parameters.
Immupharma still has some other interesting peptide drugs and their investment in Incantera.
So maybe all is not lost imho.

Tide turning
Pension deficit of over £100 m cleared -now £2m
Dividend of at least 8% confirmed for 2019
Figures in line with expectations after awful Brexit and political uncertainty in year to date.
Hub now has 30 m users -2 years ahead of forecast
Studios outlook for 2020 only sour note but thats showbiz folks
Happy with results
I think we have turned a corner
Lets see what the market reaction is.

Share price moving up based on stronger Sterling and improving International sentiment on UK stocks linked to domestic economy.
There is a view that that the results update tomorrow could mark a watershed moment in the fortunes of ITV with improving advertising figures and a resurgent ITV Studios.
A positive update on the nascent Britbox may add to a positive re-rating of ITV by a number of brokers.
The strong dividend yield and low debt levels add to the investment with the value of SDN still under the radar according to my reliable City source.
Tomorrow will tell if he is correct .
Only my views and please DYOR

strength not strenght
fat fingers

Following the sale of Southbank the debt to adjusted EBITDA will be around 1 to 1 which is very manageable .
Any possible future sale of SDN would almost eliminate tbe total debt.
The financial strenght of the ITV balance sheet is very strong indeed and the low debt levels an added attraction to potential buyers.
I wonder why ITV did not wait until Tuesday to announce the Southbank sale. Maybe the Dame has something up her sleeve to announce on Tuesday .
If results are soggy I feel she would have included the Southbank sale in the update to soften the market reaction.
Just surmising !

Southbank sold for £145m somewhat less than envisaged
€50 m to Pension Scheme the rest to reduce debt
Hopefully more good news on Tuesday

Alan
Fully agree on SDN sale with licences fixed until 2022.
However ITV currently in discussions with OFCOM
to renew and possibly extend licences and ITV in very strong position with it's ownership of the infrastructure so Johnny Foreigner has little chance of usurping ITV given the political uproar that would ensue.
SDN still a " hidden jewel" and not as yet reflected in the ITV share price.
Confirmation of a successful renewal could add over 25p to the SP imho.
Predators of course know about SDN and it"s strategic value.
Consolidation in the media/content is inevitable so maybe like the boy who cried wolf too often
the beast may finally come knocking on ITV's door .

I suspect many posters here have sussed the direct correlation in the past few months between Sterling and the ITV share price.
The recent strenght in the pound has coincided with the rise in the SP of ITV.
Obviously the more optimistic Brexit prospects particularly a no deal crash out off the table has helped both £ and ITV but it is also a strong sign of international investment sentiment turning more positive .
This investment could surge if we see a positive Election result( clear majority for.....fill in blanks)
Also stong Sterling good for ITV with it borrowings in Euros at very low interest rates( see last months bond refinancing).
Sterling picking up after small falls earlier and it looks like ITV doing the same.

140p a big tehnical pivot point.
Market awaiting next Tuesday Q 3 update with the emphasis on advertising revenues and the performance of ITV Studios.
Share price stuck in a holding pattern pending this update and Mc Call under pressure to show progress in her Strategic Refresh after nearly 2 years in the job.
Brexit is a strong headwind for ITV and political uncertainty an ongoing issue for the UK economy.
Nonetheless she must demonstrate her pedigree with some positive news possibly the sale of SDN and an update on the Southbank sale.
I am convinced that like many other UK listed companies, ITV is now more vulnerable to a takeover at this low valuation.
The consolidation in the International content industry is escalating and ITV is the prime target for many of the big players imho.
As I have said before iTV may fit snugly with iPhone iPad,et al in the Apple stable.
Apple TV does not sound quite right to me.
Fingers crossed for next week.

Muted market reaction today to Britbox launch and new content partners.
Market views Britbox as an interesting aside to ITVs main businesses and unlikely to be a game changer or even financially important.
Hence the massive shrug of the shoulders by the market to the Britbox launch today.
The market update next Tuesday is much more important and will set the near term direction of the share price.

After such a strong run it was always on the cards
that a pullback was possible particularly when
the SP failed to breach the 140p pivot.
I am confident that another attempt will be
made soon but we need a catalyst which could
be the update on the 12th November which
may provide reassuring news on advertising( see
recent results from WPP), ITV Studios,Sale of Southbank , and preliminary figures on Britbox.
Still holding and hopefully the Election will
help clear the Brexit smog

All quiet today in ITV while the lunatics
continue to run amok in the asylum in Westminster.
Boris doing more u-turns and do or die and
dead in ditch promises unlikely to be fulfilled.