Member Info for Daisan

Aura is actually quite interesting. It has jumped on the Vanadium bandwagon because of the increase in price but also because its main focus, Uranium, is in the doldrums and it is no longer possible to process Uranium in Sweden. The irony is that the outlook for Uranium for the next few years looks pretty good. If you look at the resources/reserves statement for HÄGGÅN on their website, it is notable that Vanadium is not even separated as a resource item which probably says all you need to know. That said, it is an optionality play on very high Vanadium prices but given the assets of several other companies around the world (for example, Bushveld!) it is possible to gain considerable exposure to the Vanadium upside without the downside risk of Aura. That said, Aura has the potential to spark hard on the back of sharply higher Vanadium prices but whether that spike is sustainable is debatable.

Pdub, I respect your views as well. Let's have a cuddle!

Great response by the way, Alfa. A certain Zen like quality to your correction/put down!

Pdub, It is not negativity for negativity's sake. It is about discussing the reality of the situation. We are all invested here so we have all made the decision that the opportunity is worth the risk. That doesn't mean we should sweep the negatives under the carpet.

Ha! I feel a tad silly now. Sheepishly walks away, head held low.

Nick, I'm surprised that you are surprised! I have known many people (me included, although I have broken my rule several times!) who have viewed SA as a no go area for investment and none with the same ethos for Brazil. Brazil has the 'BRICS' (sort of) halo to fall back on, SA doesn't.

Excellent. Thank you. Pretty cold then. :)

Nick, I have seen this reported many times and yet if you asked most people I think 99 times out of 100 they would say that SA is worse than Brazil. They may not be right but perception is all it requires.

What is 1/100th of room temperature? If room temperature is 20 degc then this would be 0.2 degc, which, I presume, is not what was meant.

I tend to find that when a company moves from explorer to developer/producer that the market focus is on finance and production. Hence, news shifting events tend to be related to these factors. As such, the most likely impactful news is progress, particularly on development finance, associated with BKM.

I tend to agree. Shanta are going tonnage to largely live on their own cash resources from here on in or find capital very expensive indeed. The Tanzanian effect has scared off a great number of financial institutions. Whilst the government may believe that what they are doing is for the benefit of all Tanzanians, in actuality they will find out in the long run that it is detrimental as capital shuns the country. Even more detrimental than the original lopsided agreement with Acacia.

Does the fact that this is for Q1 make a difference? Not sure what recent results SOLG have come up with.

Well, we haven't really. These movements always have periods of consolidation. It will spark into life at some point. It's just pretty dull waiting for news that we know is coming but, for whatever reason, does not seem to be forthcoming.

Well, the Vanadium price is still rising! However, considering the number of news items that should be dropping, this does seem to have entered a period where watching paint dry is actually a more interesting activity.

There has clearly been at least one significant seller and we have seen a couple of very large trades (several million) as well as a number of large trades. I usually like to see an 'unusual' (i.e. not round number) large trade as it tends to mark the end of a large sell order (during the process the sells tend to be round numbers) so that is a positive associated with the large trade printed on Friday. It is noticeable that the prices paid moved up about 3% after this trade was actually executed (but before it was published) so it may be that the selling pressure will be removed from the market. Let's hope that the buying pressure remains/increases to move the price forwards now.

It is for precisely this reason (the lunatic fringe) that Ramaphosa must walk a tightrope. Let's face it, he wants to see a successful South Africa and knows that this can only be achieved by providing an environment that encourages investment. Equally he knows that if he doesn't make concessions to the 'lunatics' then this has the potential to degenerate into violence. The mining charter is a reflection of this and is surely the lesser of two evils. It may be that it only manages to delay the inevitability expressed by the original article but there is at least hope that this could lead to a more virtuous circle of rising and shared prosperity.

Extremely bullish on copper as well. And cobalt. In fact, you could just sum it up by saying that they are very bullish on all battery metals and miners except, possibly, lithium. One other point is that there is currently something like $100tn of investment 'locked into' oil. As the world shifts away from oil (and it will take some time - consider that oil consumption to my knowledge is still growing and is anticipated doing so for some years yet before it begins to tail off) then that investment will look to redeploy. That is an enormous change and will radically alter the investment landscape over the coming decades.

A lot of things coming together here. From a company perspective we have: - A rising Vanadium price that is already surpassing previous highs despite being only a week into the latest rising trend ($100/kg FeV remains the target). - Implementation of new rebar regulations in China and adoption of VRFBs which will significantly increase demand. - A newly 'savvy' trader mentality as a result of recent price action (they know that the price dynamics are pointing to higher levels and, anyway, they are currently lacking stock to take advantage which must be bugging the hell out of them. - Production increasing as a result of improvements to the plant From a political perspective: - Ramaphosa wants to encourage investment and has gone on record on a specific number ($100bn) - The new mining charter is now under review and due to be gazetted (Ramaphosa CANNOT let this derail the investment goals) - China are becoming very acquisitive with respect to renewables related metals (see recent articles on copper investments and stated desire to assist with Mokopane development) The mining charter is key. The worst current scenario is that it is challenged in court, so extending the uncertainty. However, I would say that there is opportunity here for Bushveld for a charter that is encouraging tominward investment and one that presents a disincentive to investment. Vametco, Brits and Mokopane are not marginal projects currently and can cope happily with the charter in its current form. But if international investors are put off/withdraw then this will potentially present other opportunities. If that charter is benign then inward investment will increase the value of our projects significantly. I find myself in the unhappy situation of being optimistic. Believe me, this is breaking the habit of a lifetime!

Faramog, I don't think anyone is suggesting that these moves are good just that they are now stated and, hence, can be accommodated. What I have seen so far is unlikely to encourage inward investment but is unlikely to see investors leaving in their droves. We have to remember as well that BMN are in a very unusual situation currently in the fact that they are currently experiencing a price environment that is delivering an EBITDA 10 times the amount that they paid for the asset a year ago. The only thing that could derail thus in the short to medium term is geopolitics. Settle this and the opportunity to move to a rating more commensurate with the profitability is more likely. As for Trump. Well, the US should know better that protectionism is a lose-lose. Trump is someone I consider to be an IQ suppressor. He actually makes everyone around him less intelligent.

This can only be imposed on SA registered companies. I don't think that this is going to attract $100bn inward investment. There is no doubt that it is a disincentive. But this is only part of the charter. There may well be other elements and government policy that are attractive to investment so at the moment we don't know the wider SA investment impact. From a BMN perspective the changes are actually very minor and I agree with Alfacomp on this that FM is likely to have this covered. Let's bear in mind that FM is very keen to ensure that SA benefits from the assets so is likely to optimise this structure and move forward in a way that works both in the short and long term.