Member Info for Daisan

Pablo2, Vanadium has done a lot more than doubling in the last couple of years. In fact, since its lows it has gone up 500% and is the best performing metal (better than cobalt and lithium in that time frame). There is strong reason to believe that this trend will continue when you consider the changes to the Chinese rebar standards in November which will further exacerbate a supply imbalance whilst you will also see, in the next few years, operations such as Fangchengang/Dalian which have the potential to quadruple the global demand for Vanadium before meaningful new supply can enter the market. This is a potentially transformative event for the Vanadium market. The most desirable outcome of all this is a Vanadium price that both encourages investment and enables VRFB adoption to create a market that is much larger than the current one with many more suppliers and consumers resulting in a more stable price regime that doesn't exhibit the historic spikes. I think that there is reason for optimism that this can be achieved but it is rooted in the successful adoption of VRFBs, particularly in China where the state is very supportive.

I confess that I tend to put little emphasis on audited results, which is wrong, I know as they are supposed to represent the unvarnished truth (not mentioning examples such as Carillion which undermine this statement). The fact is that audited statements are presented well after the period end and reflect a backwards looking view. Consider everything that has happened since the period in question and you will realise that the story has moved on. That being said, there will certainly be useful pieces of information within the accounts, such as cash position and burn rate. But even that will need to be viewed with caution given the current state of operations. No. I don't think that it reflects badly.

It may be a generation consumed by vanity but it does mean that the previous generation gets to satisfy the inner perv quite easily.

I am intrigued by Cantors. Wherever I see people talking about them, they are always selling. I can well imagine that their employees are not the life and soul of the part!

Indeed. Prices are going to go MUCH higher. My next target is $100/kg for many reasons and that will undoubtedly create a pause but I certainly envisage record high prices on the back of the current supply/demand balance.

The way that the Vanadium market operates makes it prone to violent shifts. We have seen a 'buyer's strike' which was clearly unsustainable but the traders reacted by running down stocks at a time when supply is clearly tight. This made the drop, as small as it was, larger than it would otherwise have been. But the result when buyers return is that the traders have no stock so have to turn to the suppliers who have none available other than to their regular contracts. A bidding war ensues. This is setting things up interestingly in the run up to the enforcement of the rebar standards. You have to think that the traders are going to see the way in which the land lies and realise that demand will rise substantially so they should be trying to secure supply beforehand. Equally it is unlikely that they will be so willing to run down stocks in what is obviously going to be a market of ever tightening supply which will mean that pull backs in the light of buyers holding off will be minimal. Interesting times ahead.

Faramog, It is the percentage change of each wave up (1,3,5) and wave 3 is not supposed to be the smallest percentage change. Actually, wave 1 is tricky to judge as wave 2 is a 'flat' and could be between 300 and 600%. Either way, a target for wave 5 would be the bottom of wave 4 with the addition of the percentage change of wave 1.

Faramog, Elliott Waves! :) As I know Alfacomp is do keen, I put wave 1 as roughly 2-8p, wave 3 as 8-24p which would give a wave 5 target of about 70p. The only issue I have is that wave 3 is not supposed to be the smallest move.

Given the expected delivery date for a number of items was some time ago, I think that it is more likely an elephant gestating. Presumably a cash elephant!

The problem with this is that the restructure has been announced with the latest fundraise together with a very specific sum of money. Hence, the 'news' (if somewhat vague) is out there and the speculation can begin. Part of this speculation has linked it to the agreement of the mining charter. Indeed, Mokopane licencing has also been so linked. This may or may not be the case and whilst there is some reasonable logic behind the assertion we shouldn't confuse speculation with fact. At the moment the one fact we know is that BMN is pregnant with news. Exactly when the birth is, nobody knows. But we can speculate.

Most 'investors' on AIM have the mindset that the only way to make money is to trade it. In reality this is a focus that almost guaranteed losses. The singular lack of news tends to be a driver for selling on AIM and we have had such a lack apart from the statutory minimum really. I would hate for BMN to become a quarterly report company. There should be fat more to report than that. In the meantime you would hope that a resurgent Vanadium price would allow investors to put 2 and 2 together.

It's a nice day and everyone is outside?

'Feel not 'geel'!

I geel the need to point out that 346-146=200 rather than 220.

A classic example of 'driving by the rear view mirror'. All he has done is looked at the last accounts and made a judgement. Which probably goes to show why a lot of investors/advisors turn up late to the party.

Well, let's not forget the fact that we have gone from 1.25p to 24p which isn't bad. And the fact that we were amongst the best performing shares on the market in 2017. Oil is much more widely followed and understood than Vanadium so it is hardly surprising that the wider market is slow to react. In addition, Vanadium has a reputation for spiking so there is understandable caution in chasing assets higher. Once the market appreciates that higher prices (than historic averages) are here for the long term then production and, hence, profitability increases will result in share price rises. FM just needs to keep on doing what he has been doing, although a bit more information would be nice (Brits drill results anyone?).

If you live up to your name MrGrimnasty, perhaps we could set you on the Centerra BoDs!

swanseayellow, That is actually a very difficult question to answer as there is no real structured market for electrolyte in the same way that there is for Vanadium (although this, too, is pretty primitive). The problem is one of scale - the whole market is so small/nascent and needs to significantly develop to make pricing more transparent and (relatively) stable. This page from VanadiumCorp illustrates this quite effectively: http://www.vanadiumcorp.com/investors/vanadium-batteries/price Of note here is the fact that V2O5 prices have varied between $1.50 and $35/lb over the last decade which is too great a level of volatility to encourage investment. This page also suggests that current pricing is largely V2O5 price plus cost of electrolyte processing. I suspect that there could be some additional margin in there but from their cost figures it would suggest that electrolyte at current V2O5 is between $360 and $500/KwH. Or $360k-$500k/MwH. Or $360m-$500m/GwH. It's expensive stuff. How much are we talking about producing per year?

It's been a bit of a parallel universe for pricing lately!

Well, it looks like the next leg up is taking hold. I have a target for this upwards move of $100/kg (should be before year end), with a couple of consolidations along the way. I do not consider that this is the likely end of the move higher, however, as that will be defined by the supply/demand moving back into balance which I don't see happening for some time. I would expect $100/kg prices to trigger a significant correction. The Vanadium market, being so small, does not quite behave in the same manner as some other markets (gold for example) so the moves tend to be a bit 'lumpier'.