Member Info for Daisan

Pdub, Anything is possible but I would be surprised if one of the placees was selling down. These are supposed to be strategic investors and if the names bandied around are correct then they are not the kind of fly by night investor that typically behaves in the way you describe. It is likely that we will never know as we haven't seen a rash of tr1s as a result of the last fund raise. Speaking of this fund raise, it has been somewhat disappointing that we have not had news as to how the money has been deployed. Lest we forget, Vametco should currently be generating a significant amount of cash (unless we have all got our sums horribly wrong or the plant started producing iron in preference to Vanadium) so waiting a few months would have generated a similar sum! I am sure that something very significant will be forthcoming and we will all hail FM as a genius but a little more engagement would be wonderful.

Colin Bird has a reputation for dilution so this is no surprise. If his record at any of his other companies is relevant then it will not be the last. The only words missing in this news release are 'warrants' and 'Beaufort', neither of which is a bad thing!

Sanchez599, The reason I raised it in the first place was because of the striking similarity of declines I was seeing between shares that I follow, as noted by MM. As you say, it does seem to have created opportunities to pick up some better value assets irrespective of how it was created.

I can understand the situation where a small amount of selling can be used to prompt a wave of selling from others to deliver what you suggest but what we are seeing here is more like a large seller doing the majority of the selling and stimulating buys from others. In that situation it is a failure if they are ultimately aiming to increase their stake as they are likely to have to pay a lot more.

I suggested that several days ago Sanchez599. (23rd May). There was a bit of discussion around it as I recall.

Cindercone, That just sounds like a PI making things up when they don't understand what is going on.

Ah! Sorry. Didn't catch it!

faramog, I take it that you are using LSE's figures. Unfortnately these are incorrect. If you look at the trades themselves, the larger trades tend to be sells. For example, the 20.175p 500k trade at 8:55:30 is down as a buy and yet is definitely a sell if you look at the prices at the time (which were 20.4-20.5). There is a significant amount of selling going on and has been for some time with just a brief pause. Whether or not this is one large seller or multiple sellers is difficult to assess but the suggestion that we will get a warrants notice may not be a bad one. One thing about the warrants notices, these tend to come late in/after the selling despite the statement as to when the shares will be admitted for trading. The market is only too willing to sell shares that don't yet exist if they know that they are covered. The most positive thing about this is the impact on the price when the selling pauses/stops. We have seen this a couple of times and there is real buying going on beneath the surface. Just need to see the back of this particular batch of selling.

This is more a Titanium mine than a Vanadium mine and the NPV looks a tad ambitious to me at current prices.

8:55 was a bit of a mess this morning but we have another delayed sell from then. 500k this time.

More buys than sells and a price drop suggests either a classic 'tree shake' or significant delayed sells. I don't think that this is the former as buying has not been a great problem other than first up. Given the large trades reported late recently (and there have been a number), I suspect that this is due to continue. No idea how many they have got left to sell but there does seem to be another seller. It may well be a warrants related process (again) but at some point it will come to an end.

Well, clearly not obvious to me MrRealistic!

Well, BMN's weakness has always been news management/PR. When they release news, it tends to be because it is a statutory requirement or it is very significant indeed. A classic example is the statement about drilling at Brits. This should have been announced separately but was essentially put in as an afterthought. Which makes you think that you might not even get the drill results back (I can't recall any drill results published) and the next thing you hear will be a resource statement containing $50bn of Vanadium! I am afraid it is what it is and we just have to accept it as it doesn't appear likely to change. It is less important now that our market capitalisation is such that any placements will be relatively less as a percentage but it does mean that the valuation is likely to lag consistently.

Endion, No problem. It's good to discuss! As a mathematician, I would hesitate to say that there is much in the way of mathematics in Elliott Waves. It is, however, an attempt to codify the effect of investors psychology. Generally speaking, I think that t is a great way to explain what happened after it happened. Not so convinced about its powers of prediction!

Whereas Head and Shoulders patterns.......

How many people follow Elliott Waves though?

True. Leverage has a psychological impact. It can theoretically be very useful, however, if you can leverage 10 times to the upside (e.g. warrants). This would enable you to invest 10% of the money you would otherwise invest and keep the rest in a deposit account. Should the share rise 10% your instrument rises 100% whereas if it goes down 20% you only lose 10% (the capital invested). I used to invest in warrants all the time when they were readily available. So why am I against leverage? Because I found that I didn't keep the 90% in the deposit account. I threw that in as well! Lost large sums doing this but learnt some good lessons.

Interesting. For me the question of whether it is worth the risk would apply to the whole approach of a leveraged bet whereas I suspect your concern is whether you run the likelihood of not being invested whilst the share price surges on the back of news. So my answer is irrelevant to you - I wouldn't countenance such an approach! But to answer your question, statistically, given the recent news releases as a benchmark going forwards, it is unlikely that you would miss out. However, I have no reason to state that recent performance of news releases is relevant for the timetable of future news releases so my statement is garbage. What I am essentially saying is that it is your call and nobody elses!

Whilst I hate mining companies using very low discount rates for their studies, I think in this case that Prophecy can get away with it considering the location of the project vs BMN. Nevada will be considered a much safer domicile than South Africa and, as such, a more attractive financing option. Let's face it, for years many of the world's financial organisations have been shunning investment in SA. The V2O5 price is chosen to make the project look attractive me they can probably get away with it for now. If they had chosen $7.50/lb the NPV would be negative and it would have been an optionality play. All very laudable but doesn't get the mine built.

Very interesting. China tends to lead the way on pricing - both up and down. If this is the turning point then we got nowhere near my downside target. I think that factors are conspiring to suggest that an all time high is possible. This was achieved in 2005 when prices spiked above $120/kg. Such prices will have a significant impact on the market, including on VRFBs. It is in everybody's interest to seriously ramp up production here.