Member Info for Daisan

I think that there is confusion! There are many online share accounts that you can use. Personally I use HL. But the amount you can deal is dependent on market conditions. There have been occasions when I have been unable to buy anything and other occasions when I have been unable to sell anything. Equally there have been occasions when I have been able to buy/sell a million. Nothing to do with the broker.

I don't think that Swansea has suggested that he is a potential II but rather a potential PI given the proof positive of a half yearly report that confirms what we existing investors are pretty convinced is the situation. I don't see a problem with that.

Good piece Dave85 and indicates that at current Vanadium prices a lot of these projects are being pushed forward as economic. There are a couple of issues with the Gibellini PEA. Firstly, the figures are not based on reserves. Generally speaking, when considering whether a mine is economic the reserves would be used rather than resources. Consider CGH as an example. It has a simply massive resource but a small reserve. As such the FS came in with a very low NPV and IRR. I do not believe that Gibellini has any reserves currently so this will definitely be a focus of attention going forwards with a FS. Secondly, the break even price is higher than the long term average price of Vanadium. Whilst the current price of Vanadium is much higher still, it will take some time for financiers to believe that the higher Vanadium prices are here to stay. Until such a time, it is likely that financing will be challenging for a project that relies on prices higher than the historic average. I suspect, given the nature and scale of the high grade project at Aura, that the numbers will be comparable or slightly better (the wider resource is, in my opinion, unlikely to be considered at this stage). But the challenges are likely to be the same. I do not say this to undermine the project, which is still years away from fruition, but to indicate that there are several hurdles to overcome yet. The real challenge will be whether Vanadium prices are at current levels or higher in 4-5 years, how much production has come on stream in that time and what the demand is from VRFBs (which have the capacity for increasing the demand for Vanadium by multiple factors). Currently these are unknown but in the mean time there is enough interest in Vanadium to suggest that this project is worthwhile progressing to Scoping/PEA/FS stage (considering that the scoping study was for Uranium and barely mentioned Vanadium as a product). At that point we should have a handle on the viability.

Actually, I would call his friend a cautious investor. Whilst it is likely that his returns will be lower should the results confirm current expectations, equally his downside risk is zero. I see no reason why the published figures should not match the expectations but there is always a risk. I also see no reason why the share price should not rise, whether immediately or subsequently, on the back of published figures as these will establish credibility in projections should those look like being achieved. The market will reduce the risk premium associated with those projections once the company establishes a history of achievement.

It's fascinating isn't it? We are up 130% since March and there are suggestions of being shunned! Anyone who has been investing for a while must surely realise that prices do not go up in a straight line and on AIM can typically retrace 50% or more of a movement up before resuming the trend. We are in one of those consolidation processes. Absent a large scale market correction and a commodities downturn, I see no reason why the uptrend should not reestablish itself.

? It was 6.05p when you posted this!

Yes. Good to hear an analyst talk about the 'serious deficit' should VRFB adoption take off. Of course, 'serious deficit' doesn't begin to describe it. Fangchenggang/Dalian at full volume would create a deficit that would be considerably bigger than production! Of course, this is not possible so something would have to give in the price/supply/demand dynamic. Demand would be strong, supply constrained for at least a few years so guess what would have to give first?

I notice that the first one of the day has been printed for 9:22 so clearly not finished yet!

I confess, over the next couple of years I am looking for BMN (not Vametco) to have the potential to produce way more than $150m EBITDA. This is predicated on the following: 1. The lack of supply in the Vanadium space will be unable to deliver to the expected demand increase (due primarily to rebarcchanges in China but also VRFB take up). This will inevitably lead to price increases in an attempt to damp down that demand and encourage supply 2. The potential for additional supply is limited in the next 2-3 years as most of the projects are at an early stage 3. I believe that these factors will drive Ferrovanadium prices to over $100/kg and likely onward to a record high 4. Bushveld will be producing 5000mtv at a lower cost per tonne 5. Once the Mokopane mining licence is granted I am convinced that FM will have a route to early revenues either through a brownfield site or a limited processing Chinese offtake agreement 6. Production from Mokopane has the potential to be much higher than the PFS indicated should there be an offtake agreement (as this will imply limited processing of the ore and, hence, a much reduced capex) These alone should be enough to produce very high profitability in the short to medium term. To add to this we have the blue sky potential of BE and electrolyte production. However, I believe that BMN will be willing to give up a substantial amount of this short term profitability to give VRFBs every chance of being successful. A Vanadium market multiple times the current size will make the price environment far less volatile and, hence, the price the market is willing to apply to Vanadium producers that much higher. From the information we have now, the size of the market will only increase substantially on the back of VRFBs so it is in everyone's interests to ensure that this is successful.

Naive? How so? Any TA would come up with a similar chart.

Whilst the text of his post could have been more constructive, there is nothing in particular wrong with the chart that MM posted. In fact he missed the obvious H&S formation. But charts are just a guideline rather than a definitive statement. As suggested, news will completely alter the situation for such set ups on AIM companies as any TA person will agree. It is what it is. If the share price does go down, view it as an opportunity as the fundamental picture and long term technicals are very strong.

They are not interested in getting the best price for their shares. The most likely explanation is Wogen's warrant converted shares. I make it over 2m today were sold by 'the significant seller' (for lack of a better term) and the damage done to the share price over the last couple of weeks is clearly of no interest, which is even more suggestive of Wogen (I will ignore the alternative which would have similar characteristics). Wogen are not interested in an investment in BMN. They just want the money.

And another 250k sell pops up to take it to 1.45m from our seller today. Interestingly Google finance has 19.05 as the final trade which would mark a high for the afternoon.

I do recall at one point below 2p thinking whether I should just chuck it in but then I stepped back and considered whether I would look at it at that point as a buy or sell and for me it was a buy. So I bought some more at 1.7p and then at 1.3p. I would like to say that the last one was inspired judgement whereas in reality it was just good luck that this was just about the bottom.

I agree that the 320818 trade was a buy and we have another one for 370712 a little later which allowed the extra 400k sell to go through. It would appear that more significant support is kicking in but the key is how much the seller has left. A similar situation in ARS has just resolved itself (not as large as this seller). Immediately after a large sell was reported the share price bounced hard. Look for something similar here.

Yes. 700k sell reported at the point at which it went 'pop'. It seems to have finished at the high for the day which tends to be rather bullish for the next day.

I make it that our seller has offloaded 1.2m today as of the 400k trade at 15:21:42.

YTSS. This has been covered ad nauseam. Do not look at the buys/sells stated on LSE. You will need to judge yourself on individual trades what is a buy and what is a sell.

FastMoney, If ever anyone tells you that the price will or won't go somewhere just ignore it. They don't know what will happen any more than you. AIM shares go up and down a great deal. Something can go up 5 times and then halve and still be in a bullish trajectory. I know that there are people here who have pretty much gone 'all in' but I would caution you before doing so. It is clearly a strategy that has its risks. And no company is without risks, including BMN. One of the ways of managing that risk is by spreading investments. Of course, everybody has to assess what is an acceptable risk to them but if you do go 'all in' then clearly the responsibility and consequences are your own - positive or negative.

When you say you put your pension in this, do you mean the weekly amount you get? Some of your SIPP? Or all of your pension pot?