Member Info for Daisan

Trading today was very light so I wouldn't draw too many conclusions from this. One thing I would say is that, technically, gold is at a key level.

This is extremely significant new in the development of the VRFB industry. I also not that electrolyte leasing in particular is mentioned as part of the process. It will be very interesting to see how this progresses.

Agreed. Definitely the latter.

Well welcome! The assets are certainly excellent with phenomenal growth potential and the long term prospects for copper prices positive.

That second paragraph is incredible and somewhat frightening. There is literally very little V2O5 in the market at all so if this buyer is typical (wanting 100t but unable to source any even at $16.2/lb) then this is going to go MUCH higher very quickly. And if FeV producers and the like are shutting down because there is very little V2O5 then we all know which direction that price is heading as well. I still anticipate $100/kg FeV prices this year.

2020 projection? 5000 tonne target was for the end of 2019. I suspect that they may hit this rate earlier but that was the stated intention so 2020 would be the first full year of production at that rate.

I genuinely believe that BMN will be producing from another asset before then. I don't mean Brits (which I think may well supply ore to Vametco before then to improve costs and, potentially, production levels by utilising weathered/higher grade ore) but more likely Mokopane which I suspect will be fast tracked to some form of production. So the profitability could be much higher than this.

Timing the market is very difficult though and these thoughts (I wish I had sold at .....) tend to be in hindsight. I have seen many situations where people sell high to buy back only to see the price go higher. Also, people only tend to say this after the event so there is no real check as to whether they actually did it or planned to do it in advance. I take these kind of comments with a pinch of salt.

I thought that you tended to avoid miners Bolgas.

I still have no clue what you are talking about! The price went from 1p to 14p and you jumped in late. It has since had a retrace which is perfectly normal considering the rise. As a result of you buying in at a higher price, you have been throwing around silly theories about the management being in cahoots with institutions to buy in cheaply when anyone with any experience of investing has seen this kind of price action a thousand times before. Add in the fact that any technical analyst will point you to retrace targets and I seriously suspect that your nom de plume is a misnomer!

It is inevitable when something goes up strongly and news doesn't flow through for some time. You have to think that most of these sells are from people who are likely to have read this board (or contributed) so I doubt whether it is for lack of understanding.

The relationship between commodity price and miner's share price is not always linear. In fact, traditionally in gold mining, as an example, the miners often (although not always) have a tendency to lead the commodity price both up and down. However, the disconnect is usually a time lag in the absence of other factors (for example, a market collapse when commodity prices are rising will still usually result in falling miner's share prices).

BMN has been subjected to different influences. Political instability is one but one would hope that the future here, despite the disagreement on the mining charter, is looking somewhat better. Major shareholders selling is another (a constant plague and one that has, to some extent, been brought about by the nature of the investees). But I still suspect that the most likely reason for the current selling is lack of news combined with the recent fast rise has resulted in some taking profits.

The BMN story has been somewhat unusual in the fact that the market has had to get used to a new asset purchase with a profitable history (without being a 'cash elephant') combined with a startling increase in the price of the commodity it produces, a commodity (irrespective of whether it is 'different this time') that has a history a sharp spikes followed by dramatic retraces. This last will make professional investors cautious about chasing the share price considerably higher until there is dramatic proof that the material impact on company finances is realised and sustainable. Lest we forget, with a market capitalisation of c.£200m it takes more than moderate buying to move the share price substantially higher.

Ah Chartist2. Keeping down the consistent level of contribution I see.

Hmmm. A disorderly market ultimately benefits nobody. This is going up very fast indeed!

The problem with AIM and 'news due' is that, if it doesn't land within what is generally considered a reasonable time frame (for AIM this is, at most, a week) then a number of investors will go off looking for the latest craze (of course, they tend to catch the top so have a steadily decreasing investment pot but, hopefully, they will ultimately learn from the experience). It has been quite a while such we had such a barren time for BMN news and this is taking its toll on the share price. Judging by what I see on Google finance, a number of trades have not been reported. It will be interesting to see how large some of these are, particularly the 17.2p one just posted!

It's an interesting situation. The company clearly has two strands to its bow currently.

Firstly, there is the main asset with Tulkubash being progressed and Kyzyltash always in the background as the monster that will one day be developed (when is unclear!).

Secondly, there is the M&A activity encompassing Kumtor and, apparently, 13 other opportunities in 3 countries that Artem has clearly brought to the table.

There is no doubt that the second is the strategic vision of the company and is the thing that is increasingly demanding the attention of the Chairman. And why not? It is an elephant vision that, if achieved, will result in a globally significant powerhouse. But the first, whilst tactical, is extremely important for the company in the long term. I have (almost) no doubt that the current asset is likely to become a 20m+ oz deposit. And I think that is a very conservative estimate.

Clearly the new prospects have been brought on board with the understanding that Artem will have a very significant role to play, hence the CEO position. However, Tulkubash remains important to the company, particularly firming up the resource and reserves as currently the project would find it difficult to get funding. As such, the operational team of COO and Operations Manager (previously CEO and COO!) have an important part to play. Now, whether they are bought into this process of being a smaller part of a much larger organisation is to be established. Maybe not, in which case we may see the departure of one or both.

What is most interesting about the Vanadium price currently is that it appears to be rising at a time when a lot of metals prices are coming under pressure. Copper is the obvious example (and bellwether) and has been following a similar trajectory (if less steep) to Vanadium. Recently, however, it has weakened at a time when Vanadium is soaring. Profits must be off the charts here but I would like to see some market evidence of VRFB take up to ensure that short term price increases are not killing the golden goose before it can spread its wings.

Well, considering the manifesto was a disaster you could argue that this was the one time in history where not delivering to the manifesto would have been viewed as a strong positive.

That would be a positive. The strategy is in place and the people involved would appear to be both competent and ambitious enough to implement it. Very much a different feel to the company now.

A monster indeed. I firmly believe that this deposit is 20m+ oz when you consider Tulkubash and Kyzyltash. And I think that even that may prove conservative.

I think that the deliberate reference was for knuttie's post.