Member Info for Daisan

Quite incredible.

It's a fascinating market. Difficult to pin down exact pricing owing to the trader dominated activity. But not difficult to see that the direction of travel is strongly upwards and has been for some time.

Profitability here is now eye wateringly high and continuity of pricing should ultimately see this fully reflected in the price. Any suggestion of a Mokopane mining licence with early production or a similarly constructed brownfield deal should see this move up strongly.

I would clarify the electrolyte statement. Indications have been that this is under the BE umbrella and this is clear in the annual report. However, I will reserve judgement as to the exact ownership of this when the details become clearer, hopefully when it is constructed! Electrolyte production adds value to BE beyond service provision.

Daitom,

I am not sure that it should. You tend to give away fairly significant chunks of a company where the bulk of the revenue is services as the principal is far more key to the achievement of the company objectives. After all, you want your key assets tied in! Of course, NM will want to materialize this stake at some time but this may be through a dividend rather than a sale. Or he could be bought out by the parent company of course.

I am not expecting BE to be spun out as an independent entity, at least in the short to medium term, for a few reasons.

- it does not own any IP but resells another entity's (currently UET but no reason why it couldn't be another VRFB manufacturer)
- it does not own any mineral asset as Bushveld Vanadium owns the Vanadium assets
- it is, as yet, unclear precisely which entity will own the electrolyte manufacture (for BE to standalone as a valuable independent entity it probably needs this)

As a result, BE is currently at the mercy of the Vanadium price and the VRFB manufacturer's price. If they can't control their margin then the valuation placed on them will not be that great. In fact, if they act as a middle man for other entities, including electrolyte, then they will effectively be valued as a service operation. In the computer world, with which I am most familiar, this would be around 1 x revenue with the margin only of resold objects treated as revenue. Of course, this could still be a reasonable value if the margins are generous (I am not expecting this to be the case) and/or the sales revenue to drive service revenue is very high (much more likely).

Within Bushveld the dynamic changes considerably and the group would have the opportunity to provide a value added product that would stabilise profitability in both high and low price Vanadium environments. This would actually boost the rating as the market adjusts to more predictable long term earnings.

One indication that the value of BE is unlikely to be huge is NM's shareholding. This strikes me as the sort of shareholding provided to the guy running a service operation rather than a capital intensive operation.

I used to travel to work by car, bike and walking depending on my need and mood. I came to the conclusion that different forms of transport should not coexist in the same road space. Cyclists were a menace to walkers, cars a menace to cyclists and pedestrians and cyclists a real irritant to drivers (cyclists tend to think that they are much faster than they are which tends to annoy the car drivers waiting to overtake them). The solution is to ensure that they mix as little as possible.

I suspect that a number of those will not be amenable to consolidation. POG, HGM and Novgorod are all big entities with committed shareholders. But I am sure that there is enough there to be getting on with! It would be great if they could do a deal this quarter. Even better if it was Kumtor!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzz

But its market capitalisation was just over a million before the rise whereas BMN's is over £200m. Chalk and cheese. Microcaps are going to experience these kind of rises but predicting them and whether they can sustain them is another matter.

Gosh golly wow!

https://twitter.com/VanadiumWorld/status/1015233088664694785

$19.58/lb V2O5.

Endion,

Notifying the market that you are about to sell millions of shares is likely to stimulate the sale of more, at least initially. If you do it without the notice you can hide the sales until the selling is complete. I suspect that it makes some difference to the prices achieved (it certainly has some logical basis) but I have no empirical evidence that this is the case.

I usually work on the basis that the shares are sold before the warrants are exercised, so effectively the company shorts the shares and covers the short with the warrants. It is common to see share weakness in the run up to warrant exercise notices and this subsequently dissipates. I have no reason to believe that Wogen are a long term supportive shareholder. But they are a good business partner.

So, restricted access to buying and selling. Not sure that this benefits anyone! There does seem to be a reasonable amount of profit taking going on which is unsurprising given the rise recently. Always fascinates me to watch this process. The churn, of course, means that new buyers will be in at the 24p+ level and likely to be holding out for higher (well, this is AIM and a lot of AIM investors seem to live by the 'buy high sell low' mantra!).

Daily 2% rises will cause a backlash from customers unwilling to pay what they see as inflated prices so we are probably due a slight pull back before the run up to $100/kg later in Q3/Q4 which is when they realise that the product is just not available for lower as the demand outlook is too strong.

Not sure whether this has been posted before but shows that there are still potentially positive improvements to electrolyte capabilities being achieved:

https://finfeed.com/small-caps/juniors/improvement-in-energy-density-a-positive-for-proteans-v-kor-battery-technology/

Anything that improves the economics and, hence, likely adoption of VRFBs can only be positive for the Vanadium market.

BMN is a rather unusual situation in the fact that the stars have aligned perfectly for them in the last year or so. Buying Vametco just before the Vanadium price took off was fantastic timing and the market takes some time to respond to these things - it is unlikely to go from 0 to 100 overnight but rather get there, kicking and screaming, in fits and starts. As the company is moving quickly (although it sometimes doesn't feel like it) and Vanadium prices continue to soar, the valuation goal post is moving all the time. At some point the market will catch up and, more than likely, overshoot.

pb940,

That would be the most obvious explanation. We should get some insight in the Q2 report but the Q3 report should be much more revealing.

I confess that meeting the 3680mtv stated (and restated) production target is an interesting one for me. Q1 and the completion of the upgrade to a run rate of 3750mtv per year just before the end of Q2 are not quite consistent with this target. In fact we would be looking at more like 3350mtv. And yet they restated it recently in full knowledge of half a year's production and the new run rate.

How positively open minded of you.

Indeed. A stock phrase.