Member Info for Daisan

You don't have to raise capital through a quote on another stock market. In this case I suspect a listing in SA would be to simplify the process of allowing South Africans to benefit from BMN ownership. FM has always been open about wanting BMN to operate for the benefit of Africa as well as shareholders.

Personally I wouldn't go anywhere near a PJ company. The only people who make money from them are PJ and his merry men.

Hmmmm. A Russian biotechnology company with a drug for female sexual dysfunction. Quite a deviation from mining. I have no idea whether this is a viable company but there will be some who just buy in based on it being an RTO (although I also have no idea how many of these are ultimately successful). A large current asset pile to utilise on bringing the drug to market but, then again, bio companies do tend to consume large quantities of cash. Not one for me really although I maintain a very small stake purely as a play on that cash pile being used effectively.

Of perhaps even more moment that the $1.578bn post tax NPV is the fact that BMN's portion of this just nudges over $1bn at $19/lb V2O5 price.

I would further add that Mokopane's resource is large enough to support multiples of the projected production rate. However, historically the market just would not have been able to take this. Assuming VRFB adoption we can speculate upon far higher production rates with commensurately higher NPVs.

Given the runaway Vanadium price currently, I think that the world actually needs greater production to restore order. If this means the price coming down somewhat then so be it. That would be beneficial to all and would ensure that assets that should not be developed remain undeveloped.

$19/lb! Whilst FeV may be more freely available than V2O5, it won't take long for the V2O5 shortage to feed through to FeV availability and increase prices strongly past $80/kg there as well. Not sure at what point this will stabilise as the demand is unlikely to reduce any time soon and neither will significant supply come through.

I hate to admit it, but I would go for a rerate to £10 in a week rather than wait 7 years. I know, it will be unsustainable but it would be difficult to resist.

That's $79-82/kg for FeV in the US with Nitrovan likely a premium on top. Q2 will be good but Q3 is looking exceptional. Just how good will Q4 be?

Ophidian, I can see the rationale. Either way we are looking at sharply higher prices. Hopefully your interpretation is more accurate!

If it helps, Elliott Waves are fractal in nature. So if you zoom into any particular structure you will reveal the same structure again. That being, 5 movements on the trend and 3 counter trend (Just remembering the trend can be up or down!).

I think that the wave structure is very clear, the question is whether this was a wave 3/4 or a wave 1/2. I would make an argument on the former based on wave 2 being a flat and I would project a wave 5 target of 70p based on the wave 1 rise. If this is the start of a wave 3 then I would expect a powerful impulse move which tends to be the characteristic, in which case hold on to your hats as I suspect that this would catch people by surprise. Either way we are looking at a reasonably substantial rise here but if this is a wave 3 then there is even more upside to come before the 5 waves are completed.

Just a broker with fat fingers.

This is becoming more and more common amongst gold miners. Within the JORC standard there is a provision for an exploration target. However, it should be taken with a very large dose of caution as the drilling is insufficient to establish a resource. There is some reason for optimism that Salinbas contains significant mineralisation but this JORC target should not be taken at face value.

I suspect delayed trades, suggesting that our seller/sellers is/are still there.

Ophidian,

So,as I understand it you believe that early March to late April was Wave 1, beginning of May to now was Wave 2 with the next Wave being a Wave 3, all constituting part of a Wave 3 which started early March?

Hmmm.

Have you got a chart that you can post that indicates your reasoning?

Wave 3 tends to be the most powerful move so I presume you expect a considerable move up.

Considering that FM doesn't do hyperbole or idle comments, that final statement has more resonance than if it came from most AIM CEOs. Considering the relative lack of news this year so far there is an awful lot of news to unfold that will add substance to the other half.

In my experience CFOs don't do smiley faces, emoji or otherwise.

I fully understand SP Angel's position and realise that their estimates will always be conservative. However, there comes a point when conservatism does begin to transition into dogma. If we assume an average FeV price for the first half year of $61.9/kg then to achieve an average of $49.9/kg for the year would require the second half to average out at $37.9/kg. Considering that we are currently almost twice that at (say) $73.9/kg and projecting a persistent steady decline between now and the end of the year, this would make the year end price $1.9/kg which is clearly nonsense. Alternatively FeV would have to collapse to what used to be their long term forecast of $35/kg in the next couple of weeks to create a similar affect. I seem to recall them raising their long term forecast but can't recall to what level. I do not see that happening either.

Given the current level of Vanadium pricing and the average for the first half, I see no reasonable way in which the average for the year is likely to be $49.9/kg. On that basis, we seem to have shifted from conservatism to dogma! But they know this and will obviously revise it in the not too distant future.

It will be interesting to see what other pieces are yet to fall in place for Vametco production this year. The target is 3680mtv. This new rate is only just above this so, considering that Q1 was just over 700 tonnes, there is some tonnage to be made up. From experience FM tends to under promise and over deliver so we should expect some surprises along the way.

It is certainly an investment that any CFO would be happy to sign off. Actually, not 'happy' as a happy CFO spending money is an oxymoron. Perhaps 'willing' is a more appropriate word.

Shakhtar, An interesting viewpoint but not one that I share. The players involved have a bold vision and sometimes it is worth running with that when the opportunity presents itself. I have no doubt that the opportunity is there and our chairman has the pedigree to go for it. Whatever our reservations, it is clear that the M&A strategy is the one being strongly pursued but it depends on the relationship with the financial institutions for success. So far I have benefited from Martin's presence and am willing to go along for the ride. I take it when you say that your money is against that this is a figure of speech? If I had a short in place here I would be seriously concerned of any successful outcome to the M&A activities.