RE: nt28 Jul 2022 15:27
Badflaw (how apt),
You profess to have gained your knowledge from The Naked Trader, but all you do is quote his newsletter and follow him like a sheep.
I am sorry, but sitting outside a Card Factory shop does not constitute robust market reseach and predicting performance. Any in case, my local shop is continually rammed and the staff their provide a very positive trading update whenever I ask.
As Lorenzo said, this is not a highly leveraged company at all. Look at their net debt (yes net of any long term lease liabilities) to EBITDA. As Lorenzo also says, considering lockdowns, they have paid chunks off the debt - something Ms Hubbard never dreamt of doing as she continually milked it dry. Since her departure, the BoD have been prudent by suspending dividends and building the balance sheet. In FY23 you will begin to realise the power of this cash cow - one that can happily raise their budget prices to combat inflation as proven by their testing.
If you think greetings cards are dead - or sorry, no, that was the newsletter talking? It's difficult to know if it's your opinion or copy & paste - you are hugely mistaken. And since 'you' mention MoonPig, every time a MP advert comes on the TV or radio I rejoice as it promotes the general giving of greetings cards - not that cards are CF's only offering, of course. Does your mate know their full offering including balloons, which are booming?
I have a checkilist that I run through when buying a stock. I will not be divulging my research but would say that it is based on fundamentals largely centred around price ratios and leverage. Yes, I dabble with technicals when topping up or taking profit, but it is always on solid fundamentals with a company headed in the right direction.
Short who you like, but some friendly advice: DYOR and don't copy a portfolio or newsletter.