Member Info for CrustyPete

I am certainly not negative PoC, indeed have been consistently buying on the dips; simply being realistic and balanced - which is something that cannot be said of some. As you say some people may have bought in at 0.60p and are now in profit but others, possibly urged on by the hyperbolic optimism that is often posted here, may well have bought in at 1.2p and are now showing a loss. There are always two sides to the every coin and, in my view, it is always better to acknowledge and recognise both.

Anyway I will leave you all to it for now, I have a train to catch.

GLA.

Oh here we go, right on cue, the ringleader of the "overpromise and underdeliver" crew pipes up yet again with his vacuous commentary.... oh well, let's continue to hope that one day he comes up with something worth saying ;0)

Tanz, I am not suggesting that RJ is correct or indeed that we are being "fooled", simply that there is some sense and more than enough justification in highlighting that with AEX it is always sensible not to to be taken in by over optimistic claptrap from the "rose-tinted spectacle" brigade. And my goodness we have seen more than enough of that over the years.

"accentuate the negative, eliminate any positive." Well you have to admit Tanz that we have a plethora of numpties that have been doing the exact opposite for an eternity and they have been proven countless times to have been unrealistically optimistic with their attitude and expectations - thank goodness that there are at least some that don't buy-in to that hyperbolic nonsense.

Oh and GL, yes maybe 53% on the timeframe that you have chosen to select - but then I could easily have chosen an alternative timeframe that showed the sp to have fallen and over a far longer timeframe than 10 months.

I knew I should have waited !! :0)

Mo matter, there is now plenty of time to accumulate a few more, markets often very quiet over the Xmas period when we have no December drill.

I wish you all a lovely weekend one and all. Good night.

Excuse me one and all but am I not right in thinking that 5p was the original IPO price? And the closing price on the launch date was circa 5.5p? So essentially (intervening dilution aside) any new investor would be buying at not much more than the launch price and after 2 years of "water under the bridge" and development?

Can any of you long suffering LTH's confirm or deny?

I am already up to my neck in Tanzania and once stated that I would not put anymore eggs in that particular basket but I have to say that this looks quite attractive at these levels - management concerns and Tanzanian bureaucracy notwithstanding. If I am right in my question above I will start to accumulate gradually.

The RNS suggest that it will be NT1 that will be re-worked and not NT2 - which incidentally contradicts what was stated at the AGM - and I am pretty sure they will need to do something with NT2 to overcome the "overmudding", so I remain to be convinced that there will not be another revision to that statement at some future date.

Yes Kirsin, at this distance I would agree with you - at least we are close to getting some return on our investment - at last.

I have no desire to return to that debate, it is, thankfully, now a dim and distant memory. But anyone that suggest that our carry was "free" is deluded.

That "free" carry cost us 50% of the Ntorya assets Tanz - that is hardly "free" in my book....

Agreed and yet ironically they will be able to sell their liquid offtake (condensate not Oil) direct to market. Irrespective of what happens to the gas they anticipate setting up an offtake plant for this in situ to facilitate this; they are expecting significant quantities.

Furthermore, the pipeline build and the TPDC reverse-in rights were all contributing factors towards the GSA conversation; it may well be that had ARA/AEX now been building the pipeline the TPDC would now be exercising their right to reverse in up to a 15% (?) shareholding in the project. Maybe that was the trade off?

Pure speculation I will admit but an interesting consideration.

In short, a far more favourable ROCE for ARA building the pipeline.

I understand and agree with most of that but have to point out that at the AGM it was stated by the Board that AEX and ARA preference would have been to be able to sell direct to industry (Dangote etc) and to the GPP because the ongoing margin would be much higher and that would more than offset the increase in up front and ongoing expenditure.

PoC, the downside of the TPDC building the pipeline is that, firstly, we are reliant on the TPDC and their timescales and, more importantly, ARA/AEX cannot then sell the gas direct to the Gas Processing plant or to industry in general. We will have to sell it at "wellhead" to the TPDC who then control the onward selling and receive the margin.

Simpler yes, less expensive, yes, but less "upside".

To be fair Rojo many of those things on your bucket list are hardly to be expected by this time; GSA, Pipeline full field 3D seismic results etc. I also expect that a decision on the exact location of the drill pad has already been determined but, without a rig, is somewhat irrelevant; I have long suggested that an RNS simply to announce the location of the phase 1 3D seismic results and consequent drill-pad location is hardly "price-sensitive" unless it comes with GIIP revisions etc, which I contend will only be available once the whole field analysis is available and analysis completed. So I do not consider the lack of that drill pad announcement material.

So in essence the only thing on the list that is anything of a surprise or a disappointment is the lack of a rig and the fact that this has surely been evident for quite a while now (as you yourself had pointed out) and certainly as recently as the November spud statement of a few weeks ago.

But ho-hum, no great disaster, just have to go another Christmas without the 10p (5p?) party.... ;0)

"losing the plot"? Not sure that he ever had a grip of "the plot" in the first place Rojo... unless that "plot" was ignoring or abusing everything and everybody that did not support his own one-eyed agenda ;0)

Correct vike and not quite what was stated at the AGM, which was to "workover" NT2 and not NT1. it seem that things have changed now. Though how definite these "plans" are is anyone's guess.

A 5 month delay is also extremely meaningful for those that need their cash out in Q1 2023 wouldn't you agree mctripe?

"What is better:
1) Drill November, first gas sales end of 2024
2) Drill next March, first gas sales start of 2024"

Well mctripe that rather depends on whether you anticipate still being an AEX shareholder in 2024 doesn't it? Or when you might need the sale proceeds ,eh? But then that subtlety is unlikely to occur to you is it?

Morning Eco.

Yes I could not disagree with you - not the most genuine of posts.