Member Info for CrustyPete

Mctripe are you actually capable of reading plain English? Or can you only understand the words that support your own confirmation bias? If you actually bothered to read my recent posts without preconceived prejudice you would find that I said there is nothing to suggest that APT would not revisit the Lower Jurassic at some point in the future but simply that they decided on balance that drilling further than the Cretaceous at CH1 was not worth the risk; but that if they thought the Lower Jurassic was worth drilling in that location they would do it now and not come back to it later as BG was suggesting. And yes mctripe drilling is required to test a hypothesis, the hypothesis that there is gas or oil sufficient to risk the expense of drilling for it - it is my belief that having seen the 3D for the CH1 area they decided it was NOT worth that risk.... an opinion shared by edgar and others too by the way

Is that simple enough for you or does that not equate to your one-eyed agenda either?

Well I disagree BG and agree with edgar - Why defer the drilling of the Lower Jurassic just to come back to it later with (as you postulated) a different rig and with additional cost (totally separate drill cost) when you could do it now, if you thought it worth doing? Yes, I agree, greater risk than Cretaceous alone and (slightly) longer drill time but so what? If you have income coming in from October what difference another week or two for the greater depth? None, therefore the answer: the potential reward is not worth the greater risk.....

There may be options to look at the Lower Jurassic at some point later in the Nyuni FFD programme but it won't be anywhere near CH1 - they won't " be coming back to it".....

BG you are making an assumption that it is not a priority, nothing in the RNS states that; it could quite easily and just as likely be a "dead duck". Risk, commerciality, any number of things may be a factor BG, yes but whatever the reason, it is not happening now and may never do so. The immediate result is NO incraese in GIIP attributable to Lower Jurassic, so those expecting it will be disappointed.

Let's hope that the reworking of NT2 can raise the production levels from 17MMscf/d, otherwise there will be meagre picking from that until NT1 and CH1 come on line. Better than nothing, admitedly but not enough I fear to fund Kiliwani development.

Anyway one and all it's a goodbye from me for now; away for the weekend.

I doubt anyone would argue the point about an "elephant" BG but your comment misses the point - all and sundry have been exhorting us to pile into AEX for months, if not years, ahead of a major GIIP upgrade with full field seismic results. In truth, without a contribution from the Lower Jurassic target it is just as likely to show a decline as an increase....

sorry.

... required them to drill deeper and through far more difficult rock formations.

That is not to say that drilling the Cretaceous layers is "low risk" because as we all now the gas pressures will be extremely high and challenging and hence the significance of finding a suitably robust and functional rig & casings - the ability to vent off gas to relieve the pressures rather than risk destroying it through "over-mudding"

GL I cannot avoid the fact that I am extremely disappointed (though not in the least surprised) about the CH1 drill delay, moreover the reversal of targeting the Lower Jurassic is that the anticipated increases in GIIP that we were all looking forward to with the full field seismics results will now be considerably compromised.

This big plus for me regarding CH1 is not only as you say it will foreshorten the drill time BUT the drill will also be considerably lower risk - the COS will be improved considerably. the Lower Jurassic would have req

Well BG that is your interpretation, it could be just as likely if not more so that having seen the 3D seismics in the area, they decided that it is not commercially viable not worth the extra operational risk. I cannot see how or why the availability of an appropriate rig is even relevant, they still haven't identified one for the Cretaceous target, so if they are having to wait for that they may as well wait and find one suitable for both targets. Furthermore we are now told that we have to find a rig for CH1 and NT1 (and then subsequent Ntorya drills methinks); if these are not suitable for the Lower Jurassic targets are you suggesting we will have two drills operating concurrently?! And the second of those for just one drill? Not at all likley.

Just a whimsical thought;

As CH1 is no longer targeting the Jurassic does that now mean that it is no longer an exploration drill but an appraisal drill and that the name reverts back to NT3?!

;0)

Tanzania you say "Next hope/expectation, 3D seismic confirms massive reserves." - well we can but hope - though now unlikely to include any increase for the Lower Jurassic of course, so that increase will now be considerably less than might have been anticipated.

And what "expected dates" are you referring to Tanzania? My concern was about the March CH1 spud date - and that "expected date" has been blown totally out of the water!! We now don't even have a date. But then Tanzania for most rational posters a further delay comes as absolutely no surprise, though no doubt it will be for those blinded by their rose tinted spectacles or deluded by their own confirmation bias.... we surely will soon see mctripe claiming that he predicted it all along ;0)

BG you say "Yes, I think they'll come back to target the Jurassic prospects at another time with another drill." really what evidence is there for that conclusion? None actually. "Another drill"? Why? We haven't even identified one yet for the Cretaceous!

So yes it really is something of a curate's egg this RNS - the good news early production, assuming NT1 and 2 workovers are successful; which will be even better news if the two wells generate enough income for AEX to start work on Kilwani sometime soon. On the other side of the coin it cannot be overlooked that we still don't have a drill for CH1 and consequently no spud date either. No wonder they needed to decouple CH1 from production, otherwise the TPDC would have been more than a little ****ed off methinks? Add to that, mid year for full seismic results - and there were some on here telling us that we would have those a year ago! Laughable. Oh and so much for OIL!! Well maybe one day if BG's supposition proves correct.

No reason to change my "Hold" quite yet....

But Rojo, the day is yet young..... ;0)

I think you will find that it peaked at over £200m Herbie and I would agree that there will be a lot of short term, hot money pumped into AEX between in advance of the drill and then, maybe, post drill, dependant on the outcome. The question is will any spud induced sp spike be sustainable and, or, at what level, once the hot money has departed for another short term pump and dump....?

And I am sure that many investors in WEN would once have said the same thing.... I will be reassessing my involvement after the CH1 drill; whenever that may be.

Well maybe RJ but take a look at WEN and extrapolate from their numbers - in 2021 WEN income was circa $20m (and a dividend of circa 7%) with, at that time, a market cap of circa £40m. So on that basis we could look forward to double that; so a market cap of £80m or a share price of about 1.9p.... Wow feckin' whee.

Really Tanz? If so that must be the song sheet entitled "The Real World". ;0)

1st of the month tomorrow - so if the soothsayers are finally correct (third month lucky) we will find out very soon. ;0)

But Aimster you cynic you, have you totally forgotten that Tanzania has a new President now and everything will now happen quicker that you can say Dar es Salaam...? ;0)

But will "positive" 3D seismic results be good enough to offset a significant delay in the CH1 spud date? They will use the seismics of "bury the bad news" but will they be good enough to have the desired affect? Only time will tell.

Here's hoping ;0)

A good spot and really positive news - it is always good to see things moving forward.

Just out of interest, does anyone know whether there are any material tax losses sitting in SCIR?

If AEX can be used as a precedent there will be further CGT to pay on the sale of their Ruvuma assets, if it ever get's completed ;0)

Yes BG, anything is possible, if not probable. I am currently applying to be the next Pope but I won't be holding my breath from a positive outcome on that one either... ;0)