Member Info for CrustyPete

As I say Seawolf "by hook or by crook"... just turn your mind back to 2016, 17, 18, 19 onwards, delay after delay after delay until AEX no longer had the wherewithal to pay it's own way. That day has long since passed for SCIR. If the deal does not complete ARA will get the 25% by default, in any event....

I agree totally I have never shared the opinion that the Scir completion would have any impact on ARA's plans or timings. They will end up with the 25% hook or by crook, so why sweat it?

So much for the new "investment friendly" environment in Tanzania eh? No has changed it appears AEX got raped an pillaged by Tanz tax authorities on their disposal and it would appear that SCIR are about to get the same.... What is tat saying about Leopards and spots?

If, as many here have suggested (I disagree) further progress on Ntorya is contingent on the SCIR sale completing, it would appear that we could be waiting until the end of Q3 before it even starts, let alone finishes....

Agreed CP.

Your thoughts very closely mirror my own as expressed in my mail from yesterday SW, so you won't get an argument from me. Though the speed of execution will, in my view, have an effect on the level and sustainability of the sp and mc during that period.... we have seen over time immemorial the effect of sustained periods of no news and missed target dates on the AEX sp. So the quicker we see the items on the list ticked off the better for everyone with the direct opposite also being true....

Roger, I have to say that whilst I would not choose to argue the "validity" of your list, I think it somewhat misses the point. Surely it is not the "what" but the "when"? Can anyone really trust the claimed timelines? Some of those items appeared on Drewky's old list from five years ago! And even then they were supposedly "imminent". - yes I hear you cry, "but we have had a change of President in the meantime and a more investor friendly environment" and yes, to a point, I would agree BUT we have had that for over two years now and have we seen any concrete benefit? Nothing but words so far, unfortunately.

The only item on your list that I would have any confidence of seeing over the course of the next few weeks is the date for the AGM and only that because it is prescribed to occur within a given timeline by the LSE and not some arbitrary target date stipulated by the Tanzanian authorities. Whenever have they delivered on time at any point over the last 10+ years?

For what it is worth I am totally comfortable with the above; I have experienced it umpteen times since first investing in AEX and am fully prepared to suffer it again whilst waiting for the bigger prize.

Do you honestly believe those timelines will be hit?

And even if the moon was made of cheese we would still wait interminably for the Lunar Authorities to sign a GSA and build a pipeline to get that Mozzarella to market... ;0)

Also did Knebworth in '78 & '79 - Genesis, Jefferson Airplane & Tom Petty and more in '78, then in 1979, Led Zeppelin but with not much else - Southside Johnny and the Asbury Jukes were the only decent support act.

And Aimster, yes 10cc were very good at Knebworth in '76 but LS also very good stage show.

Lynyrd Skynyrd and the Stones at Knebworth in 1976 perhaps Rojo? Though even if we did meet then, there is no chance that I would have remembered it... ;0)

Oh and Tanz, having never met Rojo, he is no more of a "pal" than you are.

Only joking Tanz...... ;0)

Tanzania, if you seriously believe that the current AEX sp is in anyway determined by Rojo's posts I am sorry to say that the time to go and see your GP is well overdue....

Okay AA, it is as I expected - not the same ORCA.....

AA can you give us the heads up on the Orca "news" - I have not seen anything.

Do you have a URL or similar.

Well whatever BG may have to say, I have met him, more than once: and in Lancashire... I think that trumps any evidence BG may or may not have.

"I'm not sure the Market is as excited as you are !"
Maybe not Rojo but they are trying extremely hard to whip up some enthusiam from those that are not already fundmentalist converts ;0)

Oh and, yet again, for your information Rojo, Tiptop was never "bunbooster" and nor did he ever "live" on a park bench in Essex - he lives in Lancashire....

Why haven;t thye done it long ago Roger, well maybe because the interminable wait for the Fram-Out has only (relatively) recently been completed and, to date at least and, until AEX finally farm-out Kili, they are still technically an operator. It is only when that final act is complete that the original strategy is officially dead in the water. Fwiw that does not necessarily mean that the stated, current (non operating) strategy is not reversible now, or in the future. If not then I honestly believe it is only a question of when and not if ARA revise their strategy with AEX in one way, shape or form.

Roger, to your point "do SARA want Nyuni/ Kiliwani? Well if they did they have had plenty of opportunty to make their interest known. I suspect that it is too small and, as yet, too risky; KN1 has largely failed and very questionable as to whether it is cost effective or commercially viable to re-work it? Other than that very little is known about the potential of the license area and even the Orca 3D will only cast some light on a small part of it. Hence I would suggest that it is insufficiently de-risked for their liking.

I fear that, longer term and without AEX having the ability of being an operator, the rationale for ARA original investment has disappeared; once upon a time AEX would have owned the majority interest and operator status of their licences
, which would have given ARA/APT the opportunity to buy them out of their majority share and become the Operator of the asset in their stead. If AEX can or wish no longer to be that majority stakeholder and operator in any of it's assets, it defeats ARA's original investment logic. Do they now have any reason to keep their 30%? Or maybe it would now make more sense for them to simply buy the other 70% and own the all AEX assets outright?

Sorry. To be clear I would not rule out the possibility of AEX Farming Out to APT but once you have the controlling stake in AEX's only remaining assets why not simply buy the rest? AEX can surely no longer be remotely condiered by ARA / APT as their East African O&G vehicle if all AEX can do is buy monority stakes in other licences - ARA could just as easily do that themselves?

The only possible reason is for damage limitation - it would be AEX and shareholders that would fund the "risk" capital, dilution, funding etc, incubate the asset during exploration and appraisal only then to sell it on to ARA when the risk has been reduced.

@edgar you ask "Remember their declaration that Aminex was to be the Zubair vehicle for entering East Africa." Yes, indeed I absolutely do BUT that was when AEX were and were always expected to be "an operator". If AEX loses that status in perpetuity I think all bets could be off for ARA's longer term involvement? Why would you want a stake in a "Portfolio Investment Company" when you are yourselves (ARA) an Investment Company....?