Member Info for CrustyPete

But yet again Roger you seem to have totally missed my point, which is a very simple one - I am not commenting whatsoever on the risk, yours or others naivety, nor in my view has anything I said been condescending. I am simply taking issue with your assertion that "Those who are here for the long term investment have been correct all along". The fact being until the assets are monetised those same long term holders that you generalise about cannot be said to be "correct" about anything.

I hope and believe that the day when that happens is now not too far away but until it is delivered no-one can be said to be "correct all along". Perhaps other than those taking Rojo's "rear-view" position which is that, to date, AEX have failed to monetise anything since perhaps Kiliwani; unless you count selling off 50% of Ruvuma for a pittance.

But enough's, enough - sorry if I upset you, it was certainly not intended and certainly not "bullying".....

No Roger. I suggest you read what is actually written and not what you choose to read..... You may not need to be told that there is a risk and that is absolutely NOT the point I am trying to make. However you do seem to need to be told that long term investors have NOT yet been proven correct; no matter what you might choose to believe.

Good night

"You appear to think anybody talking positive is naïve." No Roger I am saying nothing of the kind - simply that your assertion that long term investors have been proven right all along is fundamentally not true - nothing of the sort has yet been proven and only once we have a successful drill and income (assuming we ever do) and the market cap rises above the peak of 2016 (circa £400m) will that be so..... if not then the last 7 years will have been simply a question making up for lost opportunity.

Actually Roger your claim "Those who are here for the long term investment have been correct all along ..." is not yet proven, the jury is still out. Lot's of positive words and expectations but still a lot of work and upside yet to materialise.

"Those who are here for the long term investment have been correct all along as I believe you know that from being present at the agm. What they have believed in all along is about to come to fruition, so they weren't wrong and their faith is soon to be paid off."

Except of course for that multitude of rampers and rainbow chasers that have been exhorting all and sundry for years that they need to buy now FOMO.....! The only reason that the majority of those have been long term holders is because they all got stuck on a spike or their own creation and have never been able to get out....

And NO Roger I do not mean the "real" long term investors.

Hypocrisy Rojo? Accusing others of being totally binary whilst doing exactly the same in reverse - at least that is what I am assuming Roger means ;0)

Except Roger, the difference being that despite the protestations of the "happy clappy" brigade, for the last 6/7 years Rojo's pessimism has been largely validated whereas the hyperbolic, AEX BoD sycophants and cheerleaders have been largely discredited. Now, it goes without saying, that the historic performance may reverse totally over coming months and years but until then Rojo's hypocrisy at least has validity in historic reality......

Let's just hope that the optimists are finally justified in maintaining their long suffering position.

Or maybe both are undervalued / overvalued....? Bearing in mind that neither have any income nor any "proven" assets I think I know which it is; ahead of a successful drill anyway. But the big question is which will be undervalued or overvalued AFTER the forthcoming drills....

I have my money here - 'nuff said methinks ;0)

NT2? A "chicken and egg" scenario BG.... ;0)

"but they would say that in any case ?". Really?! Total specualtion BG - I for one would rather take the word of both boards than the speculation and guesswork of a few "blind" posters.

You might also remember my saying that SCIR are in default of their funding obligations in any event? Hence there is no doubt that ARA / AEX will end up with the 25% - they only question is whether or not they end up having to pay for it.... so, sorry, but no; there is little coherent rationale to suggest that it ought to have an impact on anything!

It was stated at the AGM that, as far as the AEX and ARA BoD are concerned, the SCIR situation has no impact or relevance to anything from an operational perspcetive....

The commercial viability of the project is key, particularly if - as will certainly be required - He1 needs to raise more capital and even more so if it is looking to raise ore capital without "dilution". Otherwise it will simply be yet another "spin the wheel" punt for investors.

Solo (later Scirocco) once held shares in He1 - indeed may still do for all I know I am not a shareholder in Scir. Though once upon a time used to be a shareholder in Solo - thankfully I jumped ship before "crash"....

"Yes its mental that we are so close yet stuck at and Mcap of £73m!!!" Yes it surely is - it should be a lot less!!

We have ZERO income and until and unless we have a SUCCESSFUL drill no "proven" assets or any immediate (short or medium term) chance of income. So currently that £73m MC is based purely on the outcome of a drill with a stated 15% COS...... If it fails we will then be looking for a further fund raise for the next drill. The sp will tank!!

Be clear, that £73 million valuation is only supported by a successful outcome; so how much is a 15% COS worth? Only as much as the hot money and rainbow chasers are willing to pump it up to.

My personal view is that the rewards for a successful drill far outweigh the downside potential but at what price does it no longer represent good value? At what point is the "risk / reward ratio" no longer justify the price - well the "market" seems to think the answer is somewhere around £73m.... and I think that is about right too - I would not be paying more for them than the current price.

If they can afford to put their hands in their pockets for large chunks of equity we are paying them too much as Directors of a company that has no income and continues to run to shareholders every year for further funding.

Better that we keep control of their salaries and reward them with options in my view.

"Strong Buy" - maybe Tanz but only once we have a GSA signed , Rig contract and Spud date.....

Yes Northen plus, of cour5se, they now no longer need to factor the Jurassic into the drill equation and so can make a decision based purely on optimising the production and COS for the Cretaceous targets.

Tanz - I have NOT changed anything, simply omitted to "tick the box". And Tom, I have been on the "Buy" since Q1 this year.

Thankfully the egregious excesses and injustices indulged in by the previous Magafuli administration seem to be a thing of the past.... let's hope the current administration as as good as its word.

I seriously doubt that they will have been working on it yet as, at the time of the AGM, they did not have planning permission for it....

One strange but interesting story related at the AGM was that, in Tanzania, you never give away the location of any future work scheme (roads, buildings, factory or well site) because if you do, by the time you get planning permission, someone will have built a village, a farm, a school or all of the above on the site - that way they are due compensation when the planning permission is granted!!

"$1m monthly income", is that income to ARA+AEX or just to AEX?

AEX is the answer

Error: "the pipeline is capable of carrying considerably more than the stated 140mmcfd. " = "will be capable" of course ;0)

Have a lovely weekend all - good luck.