Member Info for CrustyPete

Firstly it seems that my earlier report has proven somewhat ambiguous and has been misinterpreted my apologies:

I wrote:

- NT1 and NT2 workovers are expected to provide between 35 - 40 scuffs per day with CH1 contributing another 35

- Anticipated revenues would be circa $1m a month from NT1 & 2 with CH1 delivering a similar amount once on stream

For clarity the 35 -40 scuffs and $1m monthly income for NT1 & NT2 is a combined figure not a figure for them individually

It was not asked nor individually stated in which order they would drill NT1 and CH1 but the recent Operational update clearly states that the NT1 workover will follow the CH1 drill.

Aimster & BG I also mentioned that at the AGM it was stated that it is perfectly possible for them to increase the Madimba capacity by up to 200% in fairly short order and that the pipeline is capable of carrying considerably more than the stated 140mmcfd.

A few other points:

- AEX has a considerable value of accumulated "Tax losses" that would mean that once earning income the company would be able to claim tax exemptions for an extended period and therefore earn "exceptional" profit

- I mentioned that in SAG's view "The Administration is not very experienced in O&G though they are rapidly improving " - this is evidenced by the administrations ability to conclude the talks and agreement with the three "majors" in the LNG project; something that would not, could not have happened 2 or 3 years ago

Are in line with the terms of the Songo Songo GSA - (which from memory I believe at the last count was paying $3.91)

- It IS fully anticipated that the TPDC WILL take up their 15% "back-in" rights - there is an election coming up!!

Sorry one and all but I now have to run off. There are one or two additional minor points that I may add to the "list" if I get the chance later in the day.

Oh and CP yes if there were to be a surplus from Ruvuma that could not be processed through Madimba it could in theory go through the "international" pipelines though that is unlikely in the short term as Madimba has the ability to increase capacity. Moreover in any event any and all Gas from Ruvuma would be sold to the TPDC so there would be little benefit to us. There is the possibility that anything that could not go through the pipeline (capacity restrictions) could be sold direct to industry (Dangote?) but only by negotiation and agreement with the TPDC. Which, by the way would be the same for any liquids (condensate) that might be taken off at well-head.

Sorry must dash - GLA all.

Decided to prioritise gas production from the NT / Cretaceous targets

- The seismic data does seem to justify looking again at the Jurassic at some future stage

Pipeline:

- The BoD and SAG were guarded when questioned about the pipeline though fully recognise that all timelines for production are totally dependant on it

- They have no knowledge of when they will be starting the groundwork for the pipeline nor if or who is contracted to build it

- Administration have been very efficient and effective in getting all necessary planning permissions for the "build"

- Because of the lack of infrastructure in Tanzania accessing the necessary resources to build it is not straightforward and may impact delivery

- It is currently the "rainy" season in Tanzania and digging footings for the pipeline would be very difficult

- SAG would hope that the pipeline build will not start later than end of October (consistent with the expected deadline for getting all paperwork approved and signed)

Kiliwani:

- The 3D seismic was started a lot later than planned simply due to the fact that the same contractor was used for Ntorya and Kiliwani and as Ntorya was delayed the knock on effect was to delay the programme for Kiliwani

- Analysis of seismic data not expected until turn of the year and a strategy for both KN1 and KNS will not be formulated until the analysis has been conducted

- As was suggested at last year's AGM and confirmed again yesterday it is NOT guaranteed that AEX will give up their Operator status on Kiliwani BUT the results of the seismic analysis, the resultant strategy, anticipated costs and AEX quantum of income from Ruvuma will inform that

Nyuni:

- AEX wanted to let the Nyuni license lapse but largely due to the 2024 license round coming up next year the TPDC want AEX to farm out the Nyuni license and have therefore extended it

- Due to the nature of the license, the obligations associated with it and the geography it is not going to be easy to farm it out

AOB:

- Neither AEX nor ARA have any expectation of tendering for any of the new Licences available next year - they will be concentrating on development of Ruvuma and, in AEX case, their options for Kiliwani

- It is NOT perceived that the position of the SCIR transaction has any impact on proceedings whatsoever and if that deal were not to complete for any reason SCIR would already be in "default" and obliged to give up their 25% in any event

- The Wentworth deal going south was for purely specific reasons and should not have any impact whatsoever on any future AEX transactions (e.g. Kiliwani farm out)

- Forecast for expenditure over the next 18 months show that AEX has sufficient cash to last until the end of 2024 - there is no likelihood of any further capital raises

- Delays in the target date for production are highly unlikely to affect the above equation; there is no expectation of delays of that length

- The Terms of the GSA (though not yet approved) are in l

Morning all, I don't intend rehashing the presentation as it speaks for itself and moreover we didn't actually go through it in great detail with the exception of the seismic data; the 90 minute presentation period was largely taken up by questions from the floor so I will address these as best I can and in some logical order not necessarily the order that the questions were asked. After the formal presentation we all then had circa 45 minutes for face to face Q&A

General:

Most questions regarding Tanzanian administration, timelines and connected conversations answered by Sultan Al-Ghaiti as APT are the operator and are solely responsible for conversations with authorities around Ruvuma. Tom Mackay led the Seismics for Ruvuma with comments from Sultan (who has a drilling background) and also questions (very few) around Kiliwani.

- The Tanzanian Authorities recognise the need and benefit of Gas to their economic development and are keen to speed Ntorya to production.

- Global influences provide the possibility for Tanzania to become an exporter to countries other than those on their border

- ARA works extensively with Tanzanian authorities and finds them both competent and organised leading to progress on a number of areas more quickly than has previously occurred though Sultan Al-Ghaiti (SAG) highlights that they also made progress under the Magafuli Administation

- The Administration is not very experienced in O&G though they are rapidly improving

- Faster progress in Tanzanian is held back by excessive Beaurocracy

- Tanzania is not a recognised OIl and Gas producing country and has minimal existing infrastructure meaning access to such things as resources, expertise and consultancy is hard to find and all requires "importing" - this contributes to delays and uncertainty surrounding timelines and targets (see "pipeline" later)

Ruvuma:

- Good progress has been made on "paperwork" but formal approvals are still awaited

- Whilst not contingent or dependent on each other the future pipeline work and approval / completion of the paperwork are interlinked

- SAG thought that all approvals and paperwork should be completed by end of October if not sooner

- Long lead items are now on site though work not yet materially progressed

- They have identified a suitable drill rig though no rig contract has yet been signed

- SAG stated that he has a personal objective in his capacity as project lead for Eclipse to get the drill in the ground before the year's end

- NT1 and NT2 workovers are expected to provide between 35 - 40 scuffs per day with CH1 contributing another 35

- Anticipated revenues would be circa $1m a month from NT1 & 2 with CH1 delivering a similar amount once on stream

- The new wellhead for CH1 is approximately 2.5 - 3 km's from the original site

- The drilling of the lower Jurassic targets no longer became a priority for the Tanzanian authorities and as it increased operational risk, cost, time and complexity it was dec

I will get around to providing a summary later tomorrow morning.

I don't need to Stret67 - I was there too.....

@PF Builder - yes indeed very positive - for those that were asking after him even Drewky was there!

I will leave it to others to bring you up to date - though it appears that you don't even need it; Stockmctripe knows it all already!

Many a "licence expiry date" has come and gone and have never seemingly had any bearing on anything - the Dev License and GSA will be signed off when the Tanzanian authorities are good and ready - the license extension can be done later; they are rarely if ever extended "on time". Do you really think the Tanzanian authorities give two hoots about having egg on their face?

Good try Stockmctripe but no banana.....

I have answered this same accusation umpteen times Roger, most recently in an answer to your own very specific questions some months ago; you may recall that it centred around not wanting to dupe unsuspecting, inexperienced newbies into buying overhyped, ramped up stock and get end up being stuck in a stock for years and maybe end up losing a lot of money..... Unfortunately both for you and several others it appears that my answers do not satisfy your curiosity because, despite many attempts to counter your fanciful accusations, they still continue unabated.

Perhaps when they stop, so too will the "attacks" that you accuse others of and those people you so seem to need will return to support your bandwagon?

Anyway one and all I wish you a lovely Tuesday; I will be out and about for the day....

So Roger you reap what you sow, I think you will find that before any of my "attacks" you had already accused the "bashers" (which is something you have said before you accuse me of being) of a hidden agenda aimed at frightening off newbies, misleading and manipulation.... How is it that these traits are only true of the so-called bashers and indeed that any and every basher is evidently guilty of such activity?

You will have noticed that I have not been posting here much in recent months and yes to a large extent that is because it has become a waste of time (plus I do not have mctripe to spar with :0)) BUT to suggest that this is the sole responsibility of those that do not have universally positive views is typically one-eyed.... You have universally positive views of AEX and yet I do not see people accusing you of deceit, manipulation or similar. Why can you not give others with different views similar respect?

And by the way explain to me how it any worse to use words and phrases such as"sanctimonious" "clutching at straws" and similar quotes below than it is to accuse anyone of "arrogance", "nascissism" and "manipulation" "mislead" and "They do it to spook the nervous holders into selling, its as simple as that." etc.....

So perhaps I shoud have thrown in "hypocrisy" too?

Maybe if you want the dishing out of attacks on people you should think about the validity of the accusations you yourself continue to peddle.

As I said earlier - I refer you to my previous answer.

Perhaps to wind up the santimonious prigs that think they are the only people with a valid opinion - one that doesn;t come with and agenda.

Actually Roger, we had a very simiar conversation some months ago, so I will refer you to my prevuious answer despite it obviously sfailing to satisfy your superior analysis.

Oh Roger don't worry. everyone recognises that you are always right - at least, in your own head ;0)

Dear oh dear, what sanctimonious claptrap RJ....

"They do it to spook the nervous holders into selling, its as simple as that." - and so spake the Lord - that might be what YOU believe but that does not make it so.... Can you not accept that, just occasionaly perhaps, you just might be wrong?

"That is a sign of narcissism " really? "They do it to spook the nervous holders into selling, its as simple as that." - and so spake the Lord - that might be what YOU believe RJ but that does not make it so.... Can you not accept that you just might be wrong? I can guarantee that is not and never has been my intention behind anything that I have ever posted and YOU know better of course. Narcissism?! Look in the mirror RJ. You will see a total refusal to accept that anything written here tat is less than totally supportive could be driven by something other than an agenda, malign intent or manipulation....? The rose tinted spectacle brigade do NOT have exclusive rights to the "high ground" RJ, despite your condescending, sanctimonious belief to the contrary.

Yes RJ, a mutual support group of people clutching unrealistcally at largely imagined straws and convincing themselves that they must be right and the "doubters" completey deluded..... but actually the doubters have been proven right far more often than the rose tinted spectacle brigade since the NT2 drill, since when the sp has been on a protracted slide, with occasional spikes for those periodic "false dawns".

In his lucid moments even Tanzania will recall that, as I have said on inumerable occasions, I bought into AEX for the potential in the assets and remain for the same reason, despite their value having been conprehensively devalued over the years through poor management, Tanzanian Politics and corruption. We will get a payday eventually but it will never be as remunerative nor as short a term as it should have been. Understandably many (many I know) have given up long ago and backed another horse (or succession of) - so NO, RJ not all of those people are still invested; those that are could never broach the possibility that their (in some cases) 10 year plus "sentence" could possibly have been in vain and cannot exist without their support group providing them their necessary succour. They still believe that their patience will be rewarded in spades. I tend to disagree - we will eventually get our payday but be prepared for disappointment on the eventual scale of that payday. We won't be seeing another post NT2 payday for a very long while yet...

As have most people looking for a company with reliable timelines and newsflow....

And apb, regarding your most recent post; I couldn't have put it much better myself.

And if you had one pound for every ramptastic post from the rampers, traders and front runners you would be 100 times more wealthy than that, I would warrant..... speaking of which, where oh where is mctripe these days?!

But, for what it is worth, I agree wholeheartedly with AP...... After all who on earth needs bashers when you have the stream of newsflow and PR that only the AEX BoD can create? The BoD are far more influential than any single or group of bashers - or rampers for that matter..... the reputation of AEX and O&G industry in Tanzania goes before them; just about every ramper, trader or shorter has been in and out of AEX umpteen times before working out that, just when ever you think that news cannot possibly be long coming, the company and the Tanzanian authorities never fail to surprise you!! And never in a good way.

Well the one thing you can rely upon MRC is that if the Ntorya money does arrive the cash burn won't slow down, it will speed up - to line the pockets of the BoD and Gneiss as quickly as possible before the shareholders or the administrators stop it ;0)

No Roger I do not agree, not least because an estmate of the gas in the ground is no basis for a valuation of AEX whatsoever - an estimate based upon the recoverable gas in the ground might be but, ignoring all of the variables mentioned in my post below, would result in a valuation not even close to a "rough guide" but one that is likely be a million miles away. Let's assume the introduction of just one variable, the COS; if the COS of succesfully extracting the recoverable gas numberwas say 20%, this would then would reduce the valuation by an extraordinary 80%!! And then there are any number of additional considerations (below) which would discount the valuation even further..... notably, in an era of high inflation and interest rates, the time value of money.

So actually Roger, yes, if the only thing we know for sure is the GIPP estimate, there is very little value in the exercise other than that of raising spectacularly unrealistic expectations.

The company's value is not based on the estimates of the assets in the ground but the likelihood, cost and timelines for getting that asset to market; hence the HUGE difference between "reserves" and "resources". This involves such things as the estimate for RECOVERABLE reserves, COS, the cost of recovery (FFD), the speed and timelines for extraction etc and only then, after the GSA and Dev plan have been approved, the pipeline built and (MAYBE) the Govt have reversed in to their entitlement to 20% of the project - which is more likely in the event, as is the case, of their building the pipeline.

So something of a pointless exercise in reality - totally meaningless without including all the other factors, many of which are totally subjective or not yet known. And even then would not include variables such as the perceived political and geographic risks, currency fluctuation, AEX not being the "operator", "solvency" and "going concern" risks and a multitude of others that will discount the supposed "NAV".....