Member Info for CrustyPete

But BG for the umpteenth time, the SCIR 25% IS IN THE BAG! The only question now is whether ARA have to pay for it, the deal will conclude (eventually) or not and if not SCIR will lose their 25% because their costs have been paid to date by ARA and if the deal fails to complete SCIR have zero chance of repaying that loan hence they will have defaulted on their payment obligations and, as such, will have to concede their 25%....

The timing of the SCIR deal, GSA (or anything else) will be what ever they will be but the two dates are totally unconnected - as Roger says and was stated clearly at the AGM nothing that ARA the TPDC or Tanzanain authorities are doing is in any way dependent upon closing the SCIR deal. (That could have been concluded months ago but would we now have a GSA? Would the pipeline now be underway? Would we have a drill contract? NO! ) Look back at my notes from the AGM and you will see antiicpated dates for various things and they are nlt going to change just because of the SCIR deal, they will be what they will be.

And yes Alcapone that LNG deal is probably awaiting the SCIR deal too .... God forbid. ;0)

But no that is totally immaterial as well.

So PJ if it was filled during the course of the day, 8.00p would have the average price and as such there is no telling whether it was a buy or a sell.... though as the offer price was above 8.00p for the vast majority of the day I know which I favour. So yes your assertion that it was a BUY is most certainly your own honest opinion because it certainly is NOT A FACT!

Bloody hell CP, that is news to me: you couldn't make it up?! - that SCIR BoD are a bloody shower aren't they?!

Sorry * "Ruvuma payout",,,

I wonder whether SCIR still (did) have a holding in He1.... maybe they are short of cash and cannot wait for their Ruvuma? Or maybe they now know that they are not going to get one.

Roger do also remember though that any fund raise will have to use the average price over the previous three months of trading - so to get, say, a price of 20p discounted by a couple of pence the price would have to to stay at 20p for a three month period. Prices are rarely stable after a drill....

That said I broadly agree with you and said so a day or two ago - why raise now when after a successful drill any dilution would be far reduced. And, if the drill is not a complete success, nothing has been lost by waiting, particularly with the drill available for "hire". That said I am not sure that the rig hire would cover the cost of a further drill, so I am expecting a raise at some point before any subsequent drill. Whether that is through a conventional funding round, jv or farm-in, they all involve some element of dilution. The only one that might avoid dilution is "borrowing" but as many of us have experienced if you do not have income to make interest and capital payments you can end up in issuing more shares to the lender which then trickle back to the market and end up undermining the sp.... sometimes referred to as "death spiral" lending.

All of the above aside I am very optimistic of a successful drill and then a fund raise with minimal dilution.

Here's hoping anyway! ;0)

They cannot announce a spud date without an RNS as it is self-evidently a price sensitive issue - if they had one, surely that would have come out on Monday!

Agreed Roger. Totally pointless and a distraction.

Yes Gogs it will be the same for He1 but He1 will be starting the process some weeks earlier (rig already in Tanzania, I believe from the interview) hence still able to hit the forecast date of late September drill rather than early to mid October in the case of Noble.

Assemply testing and "approval" of the rig by Tanzanain Authoirities will take at least 4 weeks and probably 6 based on past performance of the Tanzanain Authorities. If so that would push an NHE Spud back to early - mid October.

The SCIR deal is between SCIR and ARA - there is no justification for AEX making any "announcement". Not unless the deadline is breached in which case there will be no payout, SCIR will owe ARA a load of cash (that they do not have) to repay their loan and SCIR's 25% will transfer to ARA and AEX by default....

A "STRATEGIC PARTNER" can, of course, typically constitute yet another from of "dilution". So good news of sorts but not necessarily a slam dunk..... a capital investment for a %age of the company? At a "discounted" price? If I were that "investor" I would want my shareholding ahead of the drill - maybe why the sp has been held at 9p for such an extended period? BOD lose effective control of their project and shareholders get diluted by 20 - 30%.

Now where have I seen that before and wasn't that in Tanzania too?

They are unlikely to announce a spud date until the rig has been assembled and "signed-off" and approved as being safe for use by Tanz authorities methinks; from previous experience that can take a few weeks. So I think we will only know the spud date shortly before it happens.

Sorry missed out the word *successful.

"better surely to defer until after the drill on the basis that it is * successful ?

I am not sure what you are disagreeing with LW? So despite your saying that exploration is a high risk business you think that they do, or should, have high confidence levels?!

No, I don't think that is what you are saying - but my point is why raise now? No matter what COS the drill might have - better surely to defer until after the drill on the basis that it is? After all no BoD of an exploration company chooses to sink a load of money on a Rig and a Drill expecting it to fail....!

LW you say "the same applies if they don't raise before drill and don't go on to make a discovery at Tai"... so why not take the chance? Nothing to be lost by waiting and a whole heap of upside if successful. To raise now would suggest that they have little confidence of success.

Obstando - you say "There seems to be a lot of scaremongering and acceptance that a cash raise is imminent" - I do not think that is what is being said. However until and unless they create income from any of their forthcoming drills (and with no route to monetisation anywhere on the horizon) a cash raise whether in the form equity or debt (unlikely without the ability to service that debt) or a mixture if both is an inevitability.... The only thing being discussed is when is the optimum time to raise....

Whether possible or not the BoD will not be raising before drill results as any capital raise post a successful drill will be far less dilutive than it will before...

Because "drilling" are the outcome of that drilling are NOT the only price sensitive events on the immediate horizon.

NOTHING that could be considered price sensitive will be revealed at that presentation without it first being announced to the market in the form of an RNS - an "open offer" is manifestly, self evidently a price sensitive event.....