Member Info for CrustyPete

Well I think the sp movement over the last few days says it all. We know this is a "leaky" share. I am preparing myself for the bad news - looks like a longer term hold than I was originally hoping for...little point selling at this price. Hold for the next drill.

If we were likely to hear anything on Monday I suspect there would have been a lot more activity today. For better or for worse He1 has always been a very "leaky" share.... That said simply reaching TD is hardly ground breaking news - I suspect that the significant news will not be revealed for another 2 weeks and then more detailed info in 6 - 8 weeks.

before saying anything else i have to state that i have never been a very close follower of wen or m&p so cannot comment at all on their position with any conviction. however here goes! i am given to believe that the reason for the failure of the m&p offer for wen was that m&p really ****ed the tpdc off with the terms of the offer. under the wen gsa the tpdc has always had "back-in" rights over the mtwara license but the m&p offer would have superseded these rights, effectively denying the tpdc from any future interest in the proceeds. so the tanzanian authorities effectively said "up yours" !!

For the umpteeth time, cash on the balance sheet rarely translates into SP and MC value because over tiome it naturally get's eroded, it is only when it is invested to provide a return on that cash that it provides shareholder value. In the meantime the question is always how do shareholders get value for that cash? How will it be invested? What is the potential return? And the track record of the incumbent board plays a big part of that equation; what is their record? What have they achieved for investors with their cash historically?

Which, when you ask those questions of the current board doesn't play back very well does it? If their track record is anything to go by any investments have provided very little for shareholders and anything and everything else has been siphoned off into sleazy arrangements for the benefit of the directors and NOT shareholders.

The only way that cash will ever be reflected in the sp / MC is of the BoD offered to pay it all out to shareholders as it comes in through a series of extraordinary dividends. Anything else will be frittered away over time.

In the real world nicley that might be true - I suggest that Tanzania is not the "real world" - AEX made no profit on its investment in Ruvuma over 8+ years but got taxed $2m in CGT on the divestment of its 50% in Ruvuma license ; daylight robbery! But these injustices are the "reality" in Tanzania.

Did the sp "spike" ever get out of the spread...?

Jetty - the SCIR deal closure was NOT a big deal to them - they (or the JV) would have ended up with SCIR's 25% whether the deal concluded or not!!

Anyway we have talked this to death - I am with Roger; the BoD and Sultan stated that in no way would the SCIR "deal" impact or hold up any Ntorya development, that it would run parallel but in no way would it impact Ntorya. Now I know that will not satisfy you conspiracy theorists but actually I really could not care less.

As reported after the AGM October was always the anticipated "deadline" for completion of critical milestones (with or without the SCIR deal) let's hope that proves to be the case.

Bye for now and GLA.

No BG I was more than aware of that but hey, you surely can't believe anything they say after all "they would say that wouldn't they"?

It may be complete in Q4 but I believe will be published at the turn of the year in advance iof the CH1 drill.

I believe that the CPR is not expected until the New Year ICB.

ICB, I totally agree that October could be a transformational month for AEX and ARA but still believe that it would have been the same transformational month whether SCIR deal had completed in July or December..... the target production date is the single biggest priority for both ARA and TPDC and to achieve that they need the GSA and pipeline initiation to happen by end of October. So if anything the GSA and pipeline priorities dictate the SCIR completion and NOT the other way round.

As you say winalot the SCIR completion has nothing to do with AEX and nor has it any impact whatsoever on the up and coming milestones so there is absolutely no reason to expect AEX to release anything on the matter. As was stated at the AGM, GSA and pipeline initiation are expected before the end of October as any delay would adversely affect the production timing and hence I am fully expecting those to occur very soon, with resultant RNS's - the SCIR completion is totally incidental.

Of course they do BG.

Yes Chesh 4:1 I would suggest not a bad proxy but with the volatility of this share price in recent weeks I think you would need to allow for a higher ratio to cover the trading activity which would have been considerable methinks....

That said don't get me wrong I am happy for you and others to be right ;0) I want it as high as possible, as soon as possible; I am just expressing a little caution on what might be some rather unrealistic short term expectations.

Really BG and what is so important about getting the SCIR deal completed that it would stop the Minister approving the GSA or the TPDC initiating the pipeline. I just do not see what many believe is so critical about the deal completion that everything else hinges on it....? If it completed great if hadn't completed even better - ARA and AEX would have got the 25% for bugger all! Do you really think that ARA or the Govt agencies would have compromised "production" over tyhe SCIR deal....

So "he would say that wouldn't he"? Really?!? Why oh why would he BG - it is trivial in the bigger picture and a mere detail - as was stated at the AGM.

But hey, enough you carry on with your conspiracy theories if you like BG - I would rather move on.

I am sure it will push on eventually Rick - simply suggesting that there may be a bit of yo-yoing at these levels before it breaks out.

But ICB it would have been in ARA (and AEX's) interest for it NOT to happen...... the deal closure is of no consequence; moreover it is the Govt that will initiate the pipeline and sign off on the GSA not ARA.

Anyway no matter what you choose to believe the most important thing is that the sp is rising :0)

"The placing shares are flushed through when it went to over 7p. "

I think you will find that there was insufficient volumes sold at that time to cover all the placing shares between 6 - 7p - they maybe waiting for their second and then 3rd chances.

"I have expressed the opinion on many occasions that ARA would not move forward until the ARA/SCIR transaction had completed. This has proved to be correct."

We do not know what has been going on at ARA so this may or may not be correct - even if it is, ICB just because we have not yet seen anything until after the SCIR deal has been completed does not necessarily mean that the two things are in any way connected. Correlation manisfestly does not imply causation. Indeed as I and RogerJolly have both reported several times - the AEX BoD and Sultan al Gaithi stated otherwise.....

"Remember 6p was placing level " - which is exactly why it might take a while to push on from here.....

I would agree POC and hence in no way believe that any meaningful Ntorya developments were in any way contingent on it.... they are far too important to have been held up just for that.