Member Info for CrustyPete

And when that "exploration" was announced my question at the time was "do they know what they are doing?", do they actually understand what the Tanzanian authorities will require to enable or allow this? There has been little to no mention of any meaningful conversation with those authorities. There are a lot of hurdles yet to overcome before they have sight of a route to market.

Skippsy, I think you are right to a point about the sp not having anything to do with value but even with a "discovery" I am not sure much changes - ultimately the gas under the ground is impossible to value without a GSA in place with the Tanzanian authorities and an infrastructure to enable it's extraction. LNG has an export value of about $6.6 per mmcf and about 12 months ago was $15.5 per mmcf, but the price of that Gas at wellhead, (only to be sold to the TPDC) to such participants as Aminex, is $3.07 under the terms of their GSA plus a small adjustment for market rate.

The value of that gas asset under the ground is unlikely to translate to a value based Market Cap (MC) without a route to market. Until that time the MC is only founded on the expectation of future value and with so many potential variables it is not even an approximation of that value; it is pure hype.

I wouldn't argue with that in the slightest, it was simply that your earlier post inferred (or I interpreted) that there is likely to be a short term raise; though from your clarification below that is not what you meant - more that the next drill might be deferred considerably due to a change of strategy. And that I completely agree may well be the case.

Indeed Blubay that all makes total sense; remains to be seen if your earlier point re "cash raise" proves to be the case... I doubt it personally.

Cromwell, that is my assumption too but it would be good if the BoD or Lorna were to clarify the thought process around this. Perhaps that will come out in a "tweet" later today or tomorrow. I imagine they have a lot on their plates at present.

Keep on ranting joe.... Didn't your mother ever tell you "It is the empty vessels that make the most noise"? But then even if she did I doubt you would have understood what she meant, eh?

Agreed Blubay, that's my take on it too..... interesting to see where we land after the dust settles.

It is a pity that you adopt your own advice over recent days joe. Evidently you are not very high up the self awareness scale eh Joe?

Well it has arrived a day later than I had predicted last week (tongue in cheek) but my goodness it was well worth waiting for. Maybe now joe and the rest will stop whingeing and whining about needing to be told everything that is happening on a daily basis..... so doubly good news!!

There should be a good spike today but it will inevitably mean that some take some risk off the table but surely we can look forward to even better news once the wireline logging has been completed.... Oh and then another drill!!

Looks like Christmas might come early this year?

Twohearts; And your point is what exactly? Does your claim undermine or support my earlier post? Neither, it is a non sequitur methinks.

ART, I know that you might have areason to want to make a mountain out of a molehill BUT the reality is that He1 and NHE are NOT and never were "joined at the hip" and there will be little if any correlation between the fortunes of either company, whether that be on the market or in the ground.

Thankfully overnight events might, at long last, go to prove the point.

Steve58, you say "the board haven't a clue how to run a company". On the contrary, I think the BoD are very, very good at running a company. But for the benefit of the Directors and not for the shareholders....

No. But TD announcement on Monday ;0)

I was not making a relative statement RJ, simply that the wheels turn very very slowly in Tanzania - that may be true elsewhere but that is not relevant here. You above many here will attest to the fact that the value of assets in the ground is rarely reflected in the Market Cap until it is very close to monetisation. For He1 shareholders, many may never see it if, as you say, they get bought out before "production" but if that does not happen that "monetisation" could be years away.... so patience will be required or more likely a "tactical" approach to shareholding? Something that you and I never really finessed at "you know where".

Moreover there is an Election coming up in Tanzania so many decisions are now politically based not economic or commercial. Powers that be are conscious of the fact that historically those that have defended Tanzania against overseas "exploitation" have struck a chord with voters.

So yea things are changing for the better but not as quickly as many would like.

Sinequanon, I have been a shareholder of Tanzanian based O&G companies for over 15 years and more than familiar with the politics and how they affect overseas companies operating there. All and sundry have been telling the world how much Tanzania has changed since Magafuli died and was replaced with the current President. The reality would suggest that whilst they might have changed the difference on the ground has been minimal !! The new President has been in situ for 2 and a half years and despite their statements and proclamations to be totally behind Gas producers in Tanzania and the importance of it to the Tanzanian economy nothing much has changed. AEX a long term holding of mine is still without a GSA, a 25 year development license or the pipeline build that they need to get their HUGE gas reserves to market......

So Sinequanon it MAY be better than it was but it certainly is still not good. To suggest otherwise is naive or disingenuous in my view.

The government has been backing AEX for donkey's years - believe me nothing happens quickly in Tanzania when it involves the Tanzanian Administration; Govt, Ministries, TPDC, Pura or anything else.

The biggest issues involve negotiating the necessary "licences" and "approvals" and logistics that He1, or any one else will need before they can monetise any of it; GSA, Dev License, infrastructure etc These can take an eternity in Tanzania.

Agreed ICB which is why I think the Kiliwani news should be of minimal consequence to the sp. Hence simply a knee jerk reaction by the MM's to last night's RNS methinks.

More likely I think that the MM's totally overreacted to the "after hours" but somewhat inconsequential nature of the Kiliwani RNS late yesterday.....

Actually it may be far from being inconsequential in it's impact on the Kiliwani license but that should not be a material factor in our short to medium term sp, in my view.