Member Info for CrustyPete

Fwiw, personally I would wait for details of the fund raise. Completion and certainty may cause the price to rise but not a lot I would suggest.

I note earlier posters suggesting that this looks really undervalued at this price - well that may be their opinion but mine is the same as it always was; if He1 and their Board cannot find a commercially viable "reservoir" of Helium under the ground this share has very little value at all. That is the same today as it was before Tai 3 only now they have fewer remaining opportunities to find that Helium and they are skint!!

Actually I am tremendoiusly disappointed that they did not buy themselves more wiggle room with the last fund raise - surely the recent increase in costs should not have been unforeseen or at least a strong possibility? Why oh why not build in a contingency fund with that last raise? They will now find it far more difficult and with the sp below 2p is likely to come with a huge dilution for PIs and other shareholders. I wonder if any of the investors from the last funding round are still holding?? NOT!

Why Tanz, for goodness sake how many more times?! The same reason as you, the assets Tanz; and the same reason as for the last 14 years (soon to be 15). Inevitably 15 years of attrition has eaten away at the upside but there is still some upside and my average is now the lowest it has ever been. So whilst I don't think we will see 7.8p again (not whilst I remain a shareholder anyway) I do think I will get out with a profit relatively soon... then again we are talking "Tanzania" of course so nothing is guaranteed ;0)

I hope to turn that Hold into a Buy at some point soon but yet again we are in "Radio Silence" mode... for the umpteenth time.

And there were those that were telling us that we only had to wait for the SCIR deal to be done for the dominoes to fall.... Ha!

Semantics perhaps POC but, as you say "2P reserve is proven and possible, ie drilled and discovered." and yes so 2P has been "proven" ie drilled and discovered but without a GSA and pipeline it is not "possible". Until then the resource remains "contingent"....

"What is a contingent resource?

A contingent resource sits right in the middle between a prospective resource and a reserve.

A contingent resource is announced when a company has discovered recoverable oil or gas but needs to classify these as contingent because they are not able to be pulled out of the ground economically.

In essence the “contingent” name comes from the company being reliant on other developments before that oil and/or gas can be extracted economically.

Some examples include the following:

There is no pipeline infrastructure in this region and as a result the company thinks the resource cannot be extracted economically

There are environmental regulations in place that ban the extraction of oil and/or gas in that region"

So without a GSA in place it is not possible to calculate whether the gas can be extracted economically (though I don't doubt that it can) - indeed it is not possible to extract, full stop. Therefore the resource remains contingent methinks. Similar with the pipeline?

Agreed POC but we do not have 2P reserves. We have 2C resources and they cannot be monetised without the GSA and pipeline.

Anyway one and all have to head off now - I have a train to catch.

GLA

Yes POC, that is my point. Currently we have 2C resources only. WE may one day convert those into 2P reserves but until we have a GSA they will not be 2P reserves, that is my point - and they will only become reserves once we have a GSA and pipeline.

So without those things, whatever increase in the assessment of the assets in the ground may be, it will not impact the sp signiifcantly - it is the movement to 2P that will bring that change.

It is not "bankable" without a route to market and at present we have none - and won't do until we gat a GSA and a pipeline. Nothing is "possible" until they are in place.

The transfer of a 2C resource to a 2C reserves is dependant upon the probability and timeline of a route market and hence will only come if and when the items listed by Rojo are delivered.

Indeed Rojo - 2C versus 2P....

Quite right RJ, mixing up my AGM's!! Will you be attending next week?

Moreover Al, even if there is a meaningful upgrade will it make a difference? After all, we already have 8+TCF and look at the sp! Another 50% increase in the resource and so what? 0.45p on the sp? Wow feckin' wee....

PMSL, even if I gave you an address you would never find it... Keep it up rsd your really are impressing us all with your wit and intelligence.

I will be at the AGM tomorrow why don't we meet there? You can tell the BoD what you think of them too. But no, I doubt you would do that eh? You're the archetypal keyboard warrior.... keep on ranting.

Lol, there you go again, you really are the village idiot! Look in the mirror you moron. Oh sorry rsd you probably wouldn't understand the meaning of that either - I suggest you look it up. :0)

How can I take anything that you say seriously when it is self evident that you do not even know the meaning of the word "fact".....

I do not expect to see any significant increase over the previous numbers.

Oh and do remember CP that ARA paid considerably more, pro rata for AEX's 50% and that was way before any of the recent developments; the reality is it was a "steal" at that price and a win-win purchase for them even based on what they already knew from the 2D....

I am not sure that they could CP; besides which you don't need 25% of much to cover to the derisory sum that they paid SCIR in the deal...

"ARA would not have concluded the buyout of Scirocco if they are not fully aware of the Gas potential of the fields from the result of 3D work" - nonsense. The SCIR deal was agreed between ARA and SCIR in June 2022 ages before 3D was even started! The only things holding it up in the interim have been the negotiations between SCIR and the Tanzanian Authorities on the tax consequences of the transaction and getting ministerial approval for it to proceed. Had it not been for these issues the transaction would have been completed long before the 3D was even undertaken let alone completed and analysed.

I think people need to remember that in order to drill again at Itumbula they first have to shop over the necessary replacement parts and then "repair" and test the rig. Only the overly optimistic will have expected that to happen "overnight".

PoC you say " Obviously gas will not be flowing by the end of the year but in Q1 2024, it's do able.". One note of caution - it was made clear at the AGM that whilst the "rainy season" may not adversely affect drilling of CH1 and as the "civils" for the drill site are complete rain is unlikely to delay drilling it certainly would have an impact on the build of the pipeline; that was one reason that initiation of the build in October was an important target. Start of the rainy season may or may not impact the start date of that pipeline initiation but it is certainly likely to impact the completion date. Yes late Q1 might be doable but unless that initiation starts soon, and definitely this side of Christmas, it will be touch and go.... if not I suggest early - mid Q2 would be a more realistic target.

So if it was, as many here would have us believe, the completion of SCIR deal that was holding this up (despite clear assurances from AEX BoD and specifically from Sheik Al Ghaithi, to the contrary) why haven't we seen progress since? The reality was that the two were never connected.

However I am with you ICB when you say that the hold ups have nothing to do with AEX or ARA; as RJ mentioned a while ago and I can confirm, Sheik Al Ghaithi has a personal target to get the CH1/NT3 drill in the ground in 2023. It now appears that he will fail in that target but it will not be for want of trying and certainly not as part of any ARA "conspiracy"..... dear oh dear.