Member Info for CrustyPete

Only time will tell, RJ but despite years of the RTSB, traders and rampers peddling FOMO and overly optimistic claptrap about AEX I will not be holding my breath. As you know only too well RJ, patience is not just a virtue but a necessity when it comes to Tanzania, in general, and AEX in particular....

Time has proven that it whatever your best hopes and expectations might be for AEX, halve them and halve them again and you might get it about right... or, in the case of timescales double them and double them again.

Anyway one and all, enough of that, the weekend is upon us. Good luck all

Yes indeed Al, so much for "accelerated" production.... we will be lucky if we hit the original target date.

I would not argue about the events to come - I have been the first to say that these are the material events (as opposed to 3D and CPR) and it is still a very long list, I just don't trust stated timelines any longer and recognise from bitter experience the cost of delays.

Even Sultan Al Ghaithi has had to eat his words about getting the CH1 drill bit in the ground in 2023 (not his fault I would suggest) and if he cannot be relied upon, no-one can...

"there is now several routes to market" no there isn't.. yet And until there are we will not own 1P resources.... the pipeline is a year away and how long a "mini LNG plant".

Don't misunderstand be wonderer I am not saying that it won't happen eventually but to count your chickens where Tanzania is concerned is reckless and we all know that delays are totally counter productive to shareholder value; believe we we have been experiencing the result of those delays for 15 years. No-one that has been a LTH of AEX would rely on the suggested timescales in the recent RNS - not one timescale has been met in the last 10 years!! Even the rose tinted spectacle brigade have been proven wrong with their assertions about the new administration being more reliable - the pipeline is already 12 months late having only been scheduled 12 months ago; so 100% slippage...

But AEX has a history of over promising and underdelivering and I suggest that most, if not all lth would prefer the BoD to be honest and realistic after years of hyperbole, false dawns and serial disappointment. You only have to look back over the last two years to see numerous examples.

Your preference is a recipe for volatility and shareholder exasperation.

AEX is not in control of the news - and nothing else for that matter; it is not the operator, is totally reliant on ARA for news flow and has all of that news flow vetted by the Tanzanian authorities.

But wonderer as you very well know you do not go from 2C to 1p simply on the basis of a CPR..... you need a route to market and, as yet, there isn't one, though the GSA is a great advance (at long last)

Well that is reason for optimism wonderer but in AEX's case I am not sure what the CH1 drill will provide that we don't already know? We have already seen the "numbers" from NT1 & NT2 and yes, they were way below expectations (NT2 especially) so it may come in with greater than anticipated numbers but, actually, what does really good look like now that they are not targeting the deeper targets? Certainly no "Oil" prospects (not that there ever were in my view) so what will all the "hot money" punters be gambling on? The only surprise might be on the downside; poor numbers or the risk that they f**k the drill up again as they did with NT2. There is no expectation of a marked increase in estimates from NT1 or NT2 as a result of the re-working, so nothing in my view that will move the dial. Unless the CPR come sup trumps and I am not expecting anything game-changing there.

Win , you say "Any oil and gas share I've followed has always had a mega run up to spud ". I think that paradigm has shifted in the last 12 months or so; certainly in my direct experience. There has been a small rise on a couple but nothing like there used to be.

Yes win, certainly did!! Thanks for pointing it out. Though it would have been good for shareholders to get the news before the whole of the market! ;0)

At the AGM in May it was stated that for production to be possible in Q1 2024, pipeline construction would have to commence by the end of October, implying a build time of 2 - 3 months. One reason for that assertion was that pipeline construction would be severely compromised during the "rainy season" and so would need to be completed before the rainy season started. Consequently since it became evident that it had not commenced in October, I have always been of the belief that it would not start before March / April in any event. If not April, when is the next window? October 2024 perhaps? That would be compatible and consistent with a 12 month deferral from the original date. If not that, then what? March / April 2025?

It was also anticipated that the GSA and Pipeline initiation would fall at the same or similar time, implying that the workover of NT2 would take a similar length of time, if accepting that they would not start that work until that GSA was in place. So there is no great urgency to start the NT2 work and they quite possibly would not want to complete that work only then to have to recase the hole? Both CH1 and NT1 require the identification of a drill and signing of contract and the deferment of the pipeline construction.

So in short I do not expect much "operational" activity for a few months yet. Not a problem from a practical point of view and there are lots of others positive events in the offing BUT we have all seen what happens to AEX sp when there are gaps in news flow - a series of short term spikes that are sold into. Ideally what we need is a series of material events in quick succession that build momentum and keep people in the stock for the next event.

Incidentally IF we have had the GSA signed how on earth are we still waiting for an RNS to confirm that? It is self-evidently a material, price sensitive event...?! And whilst we know that the Tanzanian authorities always "vet" RNS's surely as a quoted company AEX LSE reporting responsibilities would override that?

Strange.

That said with the GSA now signed I am back as a "BUY". You never know, once we have a drill contract and a Pipeline date it might even go to "Strong Buy" ;0)

Anyway good luck one and all.

You would also need to clarify how any future income from the Ruvuma sale was to be distributed.... and with what element of a "haircut".

I would certainly be adamant that the "review" was a finite process with a fixed period and cost, after which, if they coulld not come up with a coherent strategy that the Shareholders agreed with, then the company would be wound up and all assets distributed to shareholders

The obvious question not asked was "how on earth do you expect to raise further funds if the Itumbula drill does not deliver a discovery?"

So nothing to dispel the evident conclusion that the Itumbula drill is the last roll of the dice.....

But winalot that presupposes that the CPR will come up with materially improved figures from that already estimated and there is absolutely no reason to anticipate that.

I was never expecting it until about now based on previous statements and timelines; it was anticipated to come out at about the same time as the CH1 drill which, originally, was expected about now. That CH1 drill now looks some considerable distance away but no reason I think to delay the CPR, so I would not be surprised to see it soon (ish). That said, on it's own I do not expect it to achieve very much - it is not going to "move the dial" significantly. As the current sp proves no amount of gas under the ground has a direct impact on the sp - reserves versus resources - without a GSA, a Pipeline, news on the workovers, drill contract etc it isn't worth much at all.... not in sp terms anyway.

"Could be the last chance buying the cheap shares at this price now", then again this could be the last time you ever get the chance to get out with some money....

Well I have been "in it" over the weekend for the last 750-800 weekends and am buggered if it has ever done me much good... ;0)

4 bag? Only on success at Itumbula, otherwise it is a dead duck....

Shirt NOT short!!

GLA