Member Info for CrustyPete

"It was 3p when we had nothing"

The imbecile "greenboxNeil" doesn't understand the difference between sp and MC - when the sp was 3p in December the MC was only £20m - it is now nearly £80m - that is a 4 fold increase.

We may well yet go higher but his oversimplistic BS is just ar53 gravy....

Skippys you say " But yes the JV should add value from here and they replaced the dire CEO recently..." Wouldn't argue on the CEO statement but realistically is it likely that He1 will get a JV partner before they have a commercial find (not long hopefully) and a GSA (or its equivalent) in place? Possible yes but the terms of that GSA will be instrumental in gauging the commercials around any JV methinks.

"greenboxNeil777" - what an ignorant tw4t

"People were paying around 2.90p for this in December... when we had no drill happening, no hope and definitely no Helium and Hydrogen." yes Neil and circa 25% of the currents shares in issue so I think if you are to make comparisons they should be between the MC then (circa £20m) and the MC now (circa £33m)- the sp. on its own, is irrelevant....

Indeed so, here's hoping.

Similar for me too GG...

Really great news all round - just a pity that this didn't occur before LTH's were diluted out of existence.....

I would agree there BG but pity that our old friend Rojo (and the rest of us) won't see his 4p anytime soon - let alone 8p :0)

2-4p eh? Wow feckin' wee Lol..... and even that 4p subject to a 250+% upgrade in estimated resources. And with 2 -2.5p fair value. We might be waiting a little while for that predicted 8p then?

"Scaremongering"? Total nonsense BG. As I reported after the AGM (and as, I hope, RogerJolly will attest) they have to show operational progress every year and have an obligation under their license to do so; certainly if they wish to remain operator. They were expecting the 3D seismic to tick that box for 2023 and even that failed. Production from Ruvuma may have given them the possibility of having sufficient cash to progress the development in 2024 but even that inow seems unlikely. Will they get seismics this year? I cannot claim to know but without that or some other material progress they are at risk.

Got to catch a train, so bye for now!

GLA

Wow wee, what a revelation, now we know that Eclipse Investments is definitely an Investment Company! But it wasn't Eclipse Investments that AEX farmed out Ruvuma to - it was ARA Petroleum, an Oil and Gas company! So to expect Eclipse to be at any signing ceremony is rather absurd!! AEX were there as part of the JV, no more.

But okay win, AEX currently is an operator of Kiliwani but has also stated that the longer term ambition is to be a "non -operator" - just as Scirocco are and always have been. Have you looked at how Scirocco are categorised? An AIM Investment company! And if AEX cannot point to progress at Kiliwani they are likely to have to give up that license. With Ruvuma production now no longer happening this year and without sufficient capital to do so, that is highly unlikely - plus of course the 3D seismic there has been suspended; so no progress now in either 20233 or more likely than not 2024.

So yes win, once upon a time AEX was an Gas Explorer and Producer, it is no longer either of those things in anything but name - I simply suggest that "the market" no longer considers them to be such. No more so than they have ever considered Scirocco to be. AEX are incapable of performing in that capacity and until they spend some money to get Kiliwani moving again (which they have stated they have no desire or capacity to do) will remain so.

Okay wonderer if you are keen on being pedantic I will say we have LESS cash, oh and zero income.... Non operator means we are no longer even an Oil and Gas company but more of a portfolio investment company and do not follow the investment characteristics of an "Oily". Moreover you say "And yes I agree the delays in the past have shot AEX down but past performance doesn't necessarily tell you about future performance." Well actually we are not even talking about past performance wonderer we are talking about current performance and who is even to know let alone guess what future performance might be like are you suggesting that investors or even "the market" is going to assume that everything is just about to get hugely better?!

For what it is worth I am optimistic that things will improve and I am just as aware of you are what is in the pipeline BUT I have been slated for years by the rose tinted spectacle brigade and the rampers for suggesting that one swallow does not make a summer - some of those who were advocating FOMO over two years ago. "Since ARA has taken over 3D seismic has been completed and with a CPR to follow" - yes and both of them late. So nothing changes in that regard eh?

So wonderer, my point is that yes, whilst things may be better than a 2/3 of years ago we are far from "out of the woods" and I am sorry to say that investors and the market alike have been proven justified in being "cautious", that the rampant, naive optimism that surrounded the NT2 drill proved totally misplaced, to ignore that and all that has happened since would be careless methinks.

8p? By when, do you think? I suspect I will no longer be here if and when that ever happens.

And I think you need to get ready for disappointment BG - whilst Ufufuo's post is partially true is dismisses an awful lot of the "downside" since then; we now have no cash, we now are no longer operator, we have no Kiliwani income, the new Tanzanian "macro" picture is not "vastly" improved, it is marginally improved (deeds not words, please), delays are continuing unabated, CH1 drill is now not the factor/ catalyst that the NT2 drill was in 2017 etc, etc....

We need the newsflow to arrive and for each piece of news to follow in quick succession to avoid the "spikes" that we have seen due to incessant delays otherwise every spike will be sold into.

Indeed so BG; as you say, "hopefully".

Don't forget that RPS will be conducting the work on behalf of ARA and not AEX. The work may well be complete but with countless delays on such things as the GSA, pipeline build etc ARA may well have good reasons NOT to make the results of that work public and they have total control of that newsflow.

Furthermore ARA (AEX) originally intended releasing the CPR results at the same time as drilling CH1, maybe that is still their preferred scenario - if so we will have to wait a little longer methinks.

"My reading of that she is off…..unless they hit a return"

Let's be realistic unless they hit a return everyone including shareholders will be "off".... there will be nothing left.

Yes PoC I recognise that, I am simply responding to the speculation....

Of course things may have changed considerably BUT it was always stated and accepted that the cheap, onshore gas would fuel the growth of domestic economy and raise living standards Tanzanian populace with cheap energy - exports was always expected to come from offshore LNG gas. Now, of course, Tanzania's priorities (foreign exchange?) may mean that strategy has changed - but I suspect not; not for a while yet anyway. For example Dangote cement works (just up the road) is desperate for cheap gas fuelled energy and could take most of the immediate supply from NT1, NT2 and CH1.

Incidentally are they likely to build an LNG plant onsite until they know the outcome of CH1 drill? Where would they site it? I doubt that decision would be made until they know the outcome of that drill.

"As for schedules, First Gas was originally scheduled for Q4 2024...." yes wonderer I am more than aware of that, hence my post at 14.47: "..... so much for "accelerated" production.... we will be lucky if we hit the original target date."

To reiterate, I don't have any doubt that these things will happen but they need to happen in quick succession, to build momentum and a rising sp / MC otherwise the same will happen as has happened since 2016 and NT2 drill - nothing more than a series of spikes that get sold into and which evaporate in a week or so - a traders dream but no good whatsoever for a lth and investor.

Anyway I am back on the "BUY" with the GSA but it will require a lot more for that to become STRONG BUY.....

GLA