Member Info for CrustyPete

Beware it is just as likely that the 2.30pm crew will respond exactly in the same, kneejerk manner as the 8:00 am crew and take their money off the table...... we could see a 2:30 sell off; there have been a lot of buys over the pond in the last week or so and I doubt too many of those would have been long term investors. More likely the US equivalent of Neil and his crew...

"She" Lorna Blaise will not be going straight to production without a PSA, GSA or its equivalent - nor a JV methinks , since without a PSA who the hell knows what the earnings potential actually is....?

2.4 - 2.6 live price

But Roger how on earth can they negotiate an offtake agreement when He1 don't even have a PSA/GSA - no-one yet knows what the commercials look like. The price of Helium in the market bears absolutely no relationship to the price that He1 will get from the Tanzanian authorities...

If past performance is anything to go by we should see Lorna doing an interview later today - I hope and expect that to generate yet more interest UNLESS she announces to the market that He1 now need to go to market for another raise!!

Though I suspect they would prefer the price to be a bit higher than it is now for any possible raise....

I have top sliced some of my paltry 2.5m and am now in for the ride - free of charge

Oh and by the way I am not sure that they will be able to state that they have a "commercial find" - after all until they have some sort of GSA/PSA with Tanzanian authorities how on earth do they know what "commercial" looks like? So I am looking for something a bit different in terms of an evaluation; the BoD will allow the market to assess whether what they find is "commercial", methinks.

I tend to agree with most predictions here; I would expect circa 4p and with a fair wind possibly 6p but for how long? It might be a case of grab it whilst it's there....

Disappointing finish :0(

Let's see what those delayed and after hours trades have to tell us. It could be a tense weekend!!

GLA

The MM's might not want to take it to 1.40/45p as they know that there is a torrent of limit orders sitting at that price and they don't want to take it onto the books over a weekend - if there was to be a -ve RNS at 7:00 on Monday the mm's will take a bath...

Yes Gogs I think it will be an indicator of what we can expect...

I will be very interested to see the late reported and after hours trades....

Sorry I meant that AEX and ARA would like the same agreement....

They certainly would like the same agreement and stated that they would prefer to be in control of the pipeline build but that they did note expect that to be the outcome, in which case they would expect an arrangement similar to the one that AEX have for Kiliwani, that is, one that sells the gas at wellhead..... and that I suggest is exactly what they have agreed, as TPDC is building the pipeline.

And I hope to do too GG.... good luck ;0)

But as I do not need to mention BG, ORCS GSA predates that policy and pays ORCA a lot more than AEX receives at Kiliwani because ORCA built the infrastructure - they and TANESCO own the infrastructure that transports the gas to the end users. AEX and I ARA through their Kiliwani and (I would suggest) Ntorya GSA's will be selling at well head as TPDC have built the pipeline and as soon as the gas is in that pipeline they "own" it and hence BUY it a a much reduces price (3+$ versus 8/9+$ I seem to remember).

The offtake facility discussed below offers new options but also some additional questions such as where and how has that been accommodated into the GSA? And at what price and to whom? I mentioned after the AGM that the pipeline initiation and the GSA were not conditional but interlinked - perhaps, I would suggest interlinked because the agreed prcing is contingent and dependent on there being a pipeline to take it to market? If it became apparent that the pipeline was to be delayed what provision was included in the GSA to allow ARA to get it to market through alternative routes? maybe there was none and hence the delay in the subsequent signing the GSA pending an amendment?

All conjecture of course but no surprise that as we do not have a pipeline nor do we have a GSA....

2.5 million in round numbers @ circa 1.2p

Oh and one other comment on NHE - I think they are very good, indeed far too good at their own PR, if you get my drift....? Shareholders here often criticise the He1 BoD for a seeming reluctance for "blowing their own trumpet" - the management of NHE seem to spend an awful lot of time doing exactly that..... how many of those schemes have we seen in the past, particularly in Aus?

Many of those who have been investing in or following He1 over the last 2/3 years will have been following NHE too. I for one have assessed the various merits, risks and rewards of both and made a decision long ago that He1 were a far better bet that NHE. I would not be averse to having a small, parallel, holding in NHE but would never consider them of similar merit on a risk : reward basis. That said, I was disappointed at the management of Tai3 drill (cost overruns etc) and the scale of the dilution from the recent Capital raise NHE have (so far) managed to avoid similar catastrophe's so their management team seem to be competent -conversely I do not think their acreage is anything like as good.

The good news about an RNS on Monday is that those close to the events on the ground are unlikely to get the chance of stealing a march on existing shareholders by buying in ahead of the news release..... If we do see extraordinary volumes (one way or another) in late trading today I think we can assume that the news is "out". Hopefully that news won't circulate until the weekend in which case those that piled in and took the price to 2.4p will be caught on their own spike if that news proves to be negative; if it is positive, thankfully, we will all get the benefit on Monday morning.