Member Info for CrustyPete

Time will tell Tanz, time will tell....

I would anticipate it being a case of attempting to "bury bad news"..... hide a CH1 drill delay with some decent Seismic news perhaps? But; just speculating - it will be interesting to see how it goes.

Yes BG and they could, conceivably, initiate the pipeline build process from the Madimba end but without successful completion of the 3D seismic analysis and CH1 drill they cannot be certain where the other end of that pipeline will be.

I do believe the delivery of the GSA will depend upon the outcome of the CH1 drill - so if the drill gets delayed significantly so too will the GSA. Though I sincerely hope that both are done by August as otherwise all sorts of possibilities loom.

And if I were the TPDC or Pura I wouldn't sign a GSA or initiate a pipeline build until I knew what was down there - hence post a CH1 drill.....

We drilled NT1 & 2 without a GSA and we will drill CH1 without one too.... one is in no way contingent on the other - for crying out loud gents according to the original plane it should have been drilled in December long before any expectation of a GSA.

The delay in a suitable Rig and contract and we are running out of time to get that done for a March drill - indeed in my view it is too late already. Hence back to a "Hold".

Ro ger Jo lly and RoJo.

Are you the Jekyll and Hyde of the AEX Bulletin Board?! ;0)

No Tanz that isn't even remotely close to what I was saying. I made no comment about ARA, there capabilities or judgement or 3D seismics; and no allusion to "riuinous mud", indeed quite the contrary Tanz; that to AVOID the need for "mud" and to control the likely gas pressures, they will need to find a rig and casings that have the necessary capability to deal with the problems encountered at NT1, the increased depth and difficult rock formations and that rigs of this specification are few and far between. Nothing more nothing less.

Or maybe the beginning of August, September and November CP ;0)

The drilling of NT2 revealed a lot about what CH1 is likely to find. The gas pressure was enormous at NT2 and to avoid a total catastrophe they had to pump so much mud down the well they nearly destroyed it altogether. I recall after that drill being told, at the subsequent AGM, that they needed a rig and casings with the capacity to siphon off the gas in any future drills to adequately control that gas pressure. This is likely also to be true of CH1, moreover Ch1 is drilling considerably deeper that NT2 and through much harder rocks.

All of the above dictates that the choice of rig for the CH1 drill is of paramount importance and the number that are both sufficiently capable and available will be extremely limited.

Ufufuo, the most important ingredient to get from resources to reserves is a GSA - without that nothing comes out of the ground. Though I must admit, can't do that without a pipeline either ;0)

Minchin is confident that He1 will drill "sometime this year" - wow feckin' weee......

I wouldn't disagree with you Tanzania - as I have stated umpteen times, that is why I still hold here. What I have continually taken issue with the the unbridled and (often) unrealistic optimism about likely timescales. And here we are some two years after some were exhorting us to "buy now" and yet we still don't have seismic results or drill contract, let alone a spud date!!

I continue to buy on the dips.

Just to be clear, I DO believe we will get there but I do NOT share people's optimism about the short term price movement (as per ICB's post below).

Hi Al you ask "10p before Xmas anyone?" - just for clarification Al, which Xmas are you talking about? I only ask because there have been some on here that were trying to get us to believe that we would see that before Xmas 2021 and then again 2022...

Only joking ;0)

Who knows ICB whoever it was that said that may be right or they may be the same person(s) that has been spouting that same pump and dump misinformation for the last 2 years - indeed I would not disagree with some of their thought process however, in my view (and it has been the same for a very long while now), the ONLY material pieces of news that will have a significant and sustained impact on the sp will be confirmation of a "rig selection contract and a definitive spud date". If that spud date is to be in March they need to get a bloody move on, the clock is ticking; the end of March is only 10 weeks away and, to date we don't even have a drill contract let alone a drill on site - at least as far as we know.

You think your view is even worth responding to Tanz? Hypocrisy rules eh? Even from one old enough to know better.

I would underline Ferdinand's comments; as I read it, the initial debt to Oxford Finance has not been paid off, it has been bought out and extended by Armistice, it is still repayable, the net position has not changed, 4D shareholders simply owe it to someone else, now Armistice, an entity who will now hold millions of shares and/or options for the privilege; indeed Armistice has the right to ensure that up to 50% of the $15m capital raised is used to fund the repayment of the loan....and even if they do the outstanding 50% will still need repaying at some point. If Armistice insist on converting the warrants to do so, they will then become the de facto owner of 4D Pharma. To avoid this happening where does 4D pharma (with no income) get the capital to repay the outstanding loan or the interest on it (deferred until 31 March 2024)? It appears that we have simply pushed the Oxford Finance scenario further into the future and we will rely upon further capital raises before that date to satisfy our obligations or passing control to Armistice.

So let's make sure there is no "double counting" here. Armistice have not "invested " $30m for their warrants.

"even the Omani Zubairs don't win every time..." as is evidenced by the countless delays on the Ntorya farm-out.

Fairdealer - yes indeed, exactly that, I had come to a similar conclusion.... only a matter of when and not if. That was why our two directors took another piece of the pie at a very advantageous entry point. None of the LTH in 4D will get out with their original investment intact with the exception of our directors

Yes indeed Diversified, can you imagine what would have happened to the sp if they had announced this delay before the capital raise - it would now be dead in the water as they would have had difficulty raising the capital at any price. Does make you ask questions about the timing of the drill RNS eh....

640m shares (warrants) at circa 6p? So Armistice will effectively own 78-80% of the company but indirectly through the issue of 640m warrants.... if they convert more than 30% they would have to make a "bid" methinks. So how do they exit without a sale or a delist? Can't claim to know, so just opening it up for discussion.

So what will the new company be worth and what price on relisting? 820 million "shares" for $15m.....? And for a company that is, to all intents and purposes, wholly owned by Armistice.....? Not much methinks BUT hey, anything is better than nothing and as I had pretty much given it up for dead, a pleasant surprise for the start of 2023.

Spudded, yes. 3D seismic to quantify gas? Yes, in part or at least to better define it - they already have 2D seismic remember, which has already provided enough information to create the 8 drill strategy for the Ntorya basin. 3D simply corroborates and redefines the estimates and potentially re-positions the drill site. Plus of course allows them to look in detail at the lower Jurassic targets, which, to date have not been included in previous estimates, and could (I stress could) improve those estimates.

Anyway enough from me. Goodnight and good luck all.