Member Info for CrustyPete

Oh so I assume that you don't believe that the sp will go any lower then BG? There are some here that thought we would never be able to buy it again below 1p and yet it happened yesterday and, if there is yet another delay to the spud it will go below that again - unless they can bury the bad news in positive seismic news, upgraded GIIP estimates and a drill contract.

Personally I do not worry much about 0.1p or 0.2p in either direction but I do not think that there is a guarantee of continued upward movement just yet BG - hence my "Hold".

I can understand why some are looking to leave on this news (re-entry closer to drill date) but personally I think this is a broadly positive update; at least we now have some definitive plans and target dates and, of course, a new CEO, who let's face it, comes without all DM's "baggage", disappointment and false dawns. I, for one, am happy to give her a chance to prove that she is not your typical small, AIM listed O&G CEO who overpromises and underdelivers - maybe, just maybe, we have a mould breaker. We can but hope so.

It also allows time to build a bigger stake :o)

Looking forward to reports from those attending the AGM today - apologies but work precludes my attendance.

Oh and Vike1, you say "FWIW, most large explorers don't announce details such as rig selection or movement, though common among juniors", that is largely because for large explorers drill and rig contracts are a regular occurrence and considered BAU, for a small oily like AEX they are like hen's teeth and of material importance to the sp - hence price sensitive. You are quite right that ARA are not a small Oily and no they are not even publically listed and so have no requirement to issue an RNS; indeed it would not be ARA that would be issuing anything! Did they release anything for the last AEX RNS?

No, it is my view that if the AEX BoD were aware of any material information regarding the rig and contract they would announce it. So why haven't they? Because there isn't anything to say.

Well then one and all, only time will tell, we will have to wait and see. I know which side my money is on...... no rig available, no contract and a consequent spud / drill delay.... hide the drill delay in an RNS on seismic results and a rig contract finally being signed.

Any share options will lapse

Ha! Predictable to the last.... :0)

"jittery nerves"? That is a generous interpretation GL; you are far too gracious. I would be inclined to put it down to more malign motivations. Perhaps I am far too cynical....

Surely GL you wouldn't rely upon a respected industry publication above mctripe's fantasies, cough , er I mean mctripe's irrefutable logic? Moreover even if there were no rigs in Tanzania as of the end of January, ARA will be able to get one there, have it set up, tested and approved before the end of March because they are ARA and they are all powerful. Or maybe they already have but just haven't told the AEX BoD yet? Or Baker Hughes for that matter? ;0)

If DM and Lorna are similarly qualified than thank goodness we are no longer paying for both of them - we certainly weren't paying DM for his leadership skills!!

As I have suggested in the past bullfrog my take on the "preliminary" or "phase 1" seismic results is that they are fundamentally anticipated to confirm the location of the CH1 drill and very little else. It is my belief that this is not, in itself, price sensitive information and therefore unlikely to justify an RNS of its own. I have long held that the BoD would not issue this piece of news in isolation but would release it alongside more material, price sensitive, information when they have something worthy of release. Hence we are unlikely to see this until they have completed the full seismic analysis (improved GIIP figures maybe!) and, or, have news regarding the signing of a drilling and rig contract!

I tend to agree with ART123, the sp has been range bound between 5.50 - 6.00 since the announcement of the drill delay; I cannot see this announcement shaking it out of that range for any sustained period.

Even if you accept mctripe's one-eyed semantic argument and believe that ARA have identified a suitable rig, have signed a rig contract and have simply CHOSEN not to tell the market and AEX shareholders recent experience at He1 only goes to prove that "rig availability" is never certain. He1 had indeed identified a suitable rig, had signed a rig and drilling contract and still they missed the March target date for drilling for no reason of their own. As for mctripe's idea that ARA are playing things very close to their chest and that AEX BoD are not even aware that a rig has been identified and a contract signed does not hold water because, if mctripe's theory holds true, these things were already known when the delay was originally announced back in November! Four months has elapsed since then; maybe the identification of a rig and signing of a contract is not deemed to be price sensitive? Yes mctripe pull the other one.

"A good capable communicative female in charge could be like a breath of fresh air " - I would agree if He1 were operating in a modern, liberal economy but in Tanzania...? Let's hope so - at least Tanzania is no longer "governed" by Magafuli and has a female President.

One other piece of information to consider is that after the NT2 drill and due to the unusually high gas pressures encountered (hence the over mudding) it was determined that for any future drills would require a rig and casings that allowed the gas to be "siphoned off" (my words not theirs) - in effect that allowed the enormous gas pressures to be managed through venting the gas from the well.

All of those questions are very pertinent but, unfortunately, I doubt any one here will be able to provide the necessary answers RogerJ. Pity, as there appears to be radio silence from our BoD at present. We can only hope that the position changes and very `soon....

Goodness me, after two years realisation has finally dawned on tripemctripe that ARA are pulling the strings now, that timescales in Tanzania are an ever moving feast and do not move at the pace that they do in "mctripeworld"...

In reality ARA do have to keep partners informed of "price sensitive" news and AEX have an obligation to publish it; now, of course, what the partners consider to be price sensitive is a moot point and unlike mctripe I have always believed it unlikely that AEX would issue the "phase 1" seismic news in isolation that, surely, has long since been completed but never been price sensitive. A drill contract on the other hand? Well I have my view and no doubt mctripe will have one too; no doubt one that suits his agenda...

"so were basically 3 weeks out from getting SOME news" Oh fantastic mctripe, is that the beginning of the "wall of news" that we have been waiting for for about two years now?

So much for the beginning of the month then eh?! Just another example of creative fiction...

The most noticeable sleight of hand in their presentation is that whilst it may be true that they are due $16m over the next few years from the Ruvuma sale, much of the proceeds are already accounted for and, if the last few years is anything to go by, the rest will be siphoned off to line connected party's pockets through Gneiss.

Well mctripe I would beg to differ, Confirmation bias striking again eh mctripe? The eternal optimist (or should that be fantasist) desperately grasping at straws for the umpteenth time in the face of all rational conflicting indications?

Maybe this time the optimism wll be well placed? Well, even a stopped clock is right twice a day....

Rig availability in the US and rig availability in Africa do not bear comparison....