Member Info for CrustyPete

CP, with the price and conditions that ARA or, previously Wentworth, were paying for the 25% I think the "risk" is pretty minimal in any meaningful commercial sense. Indeed I would suspect it is as much about "control" and the simplification the JV arrangement as it is about potential upside - that is not in question, the price they are paying is even more of a fire sale valuation than they succesfully offered AEX.... the mistake from a SCIR shareholders perpsective was to accede the BoD's proposed change of strategy. Though that , I will freely admit, is easy to say with hindsight - most SCIR Shareholders agreed to it at the time and are now paying the price - a symptom, perhaps, of the fact that shareholers had totally unrealistic expectations of the sale price? There was only ever one buyer in town; the pitch was always rigged in favour of the "operators" - not to recognise that was short sighted in my view.

Water under the bridge maybe - though I see there are some advocating SCIR as being cheap as chips and totally undervalued; which must surely deny all recent history and experience but hey, that is none of my business, I sold out of SCIR long ago and hitched my Ntorya horses to AEX - as much by luck as judgement I hasten to add. Though I will repeat that I have minimal confidence of any "Portfolio Investment Companies" - If I want to invest in "collectives" I would rather trust my judgement to Investment Professionals not O&G technicians....

Now a 52 week high would definitely be a milestone and with two days left before September too ;0)

I doubt they be in the slightest bit concerned BG, ARA is not even a public company, unlikely that they give two hoots about "share enhancing news". Moreover they are in total control of the destiny of the 25% and indeed the newsflow - so they can largely manage the message should they wish to.

It wouldn't surprise me BG to see them use the same drill for all planned drills up to production and maybe beyond. It would save on cost and time of getting drills transported to Tanz.

Oh and by the way vike PT got an average of less than 3.5p and sold most of his holding post spud... so I am not sure that it made much difference to the run up to the drill results.

139m to be precise ;0)

We can but hope so vike - it would be a shame having missed out on 7+p last time not to get the change again in the short term ;0)

Double yesterday's volume perhaps but still not even meeting the average daily volume for the month of August. So whilst not to be sneezed at nothing to write home about either. It would need to double to reach last Thursday's volumes, for example - I can only hope that it does.

I would broadly agree Ufufuo but to add to the Kiliwani comment, which I would completely agree with and reiterate, I would also add the difference in the current balance sheet compared to that of the time which contributed to what I am about to highlight which is that from the NT2 spud (22nd December) to results in early February the sp went from 2.1p or thereabouts to 7.8p at its peak - a rise of some 360%. However we are not starting from the same place. Firstly there are now far more shares in issue and more importantly, three months prior to the NT2 spud the sp was already 1.9p and four months prior was 1.8p (just below the spud price); today, three months before spud date we have a price of 1.0p so even if we get a similar 360% rise in sp between spud date and drill results that would only take us to 3.6p.... Now I personally am expecting better than that but anything meaningful above 3.5 - 4.0p would constitute "outperformance" in my view. How much of that we might get, is anyones guess.

I just don't see why the simple confirmation of a drill location could be considered justification or impetus enough for a significant sp rise...? Now, a confirmed drill contract and spud date on the other hand...

No BG the pre-emption rights allow ARA to "stand in the shoes" of any bidder; so if WEN are bidding for the whole of SCIR's 25% so too will ARA be. Though there is no guarantee that they will choose to go through with it - in which case the option would revert to WEN. Though after such a delay would WEN wish, now, to pursue it? I suspect so.

So mctripe, you are evidently happy to pose hypothetical possibilities in support of your ramping agenda but not willing to put your money where your mouth is? So what about your "small wager"? And what is the bet? Not confident enough to be definitve then, eh? Pure speculative hype to support you self serving agenda? If not, then take me on with that small wager - otherwise all posters will recognise that "huff" is nothing but "puff". Where are your fellow rainbow chasers mctripe - they are losing faith in your ability to ramp this sp - you need to work a lot harder....

He's tried just about everything but, no matter, still lots more heat than light. One day his speculative hype might prove correct but, I think thankfully, most pragmatic observers see it for the vacuous noise that it is - and has been for the last 18 months or more. Totally discredited hype based on past performance.

I agree to a point Argus, the 3D will give greater confidence in the output and amy increase or decrease the possible estimate of reserves, however where the supposed increase is most likely to be generated is from the fact that they are exploring a lower target zone never previously surveyed nor included in earlier estimates.

Oh and, just to be clear, a mention that they are NOT "targeting Oil" doesn't count!

Okay mctripe, what do you consider a "small wager"? And, just to be clear, when do you anticipate APT making this "mention" of Oil? Phase 1 results? Full seismic programme results? Before the end of August? Before drilling? When? I am happy to take a "small wager" that they won't. But just so it is clear to everyone on the AEX BB I want to know exactly what the "deadline" is rather than some airy fairy, intangible future event or date.

Oh and whilst you are at it do you anticipate the Phase 1 results to mention increases to reserves or are we to have to wait for the full, pahse 1 & 2 results before we get this?

Happy days, some good volumes at last. Fingers crossed for an RNS sometime very soon.

Morning Al, "What are your thoughts on why orca are doing it free gratis Crusty?"
I wouldn't read too much into it personally, the reality is that to cover the area they need to cover for their own "exploration" they need to overlap the area that includes AEX license so, to some extent, it was a inevitablity but a fortuitous one for AEX. Might there be some sharing in future projects between Orca and AEX? Yes, I am sure it is a possibility but that may have been true with or without the sharing of 3D seismic, as they own the adjoining license and feed the same GPP. Their GSA terms though are significantly different as they built their own infrastructure and we did not.

I would anticipate the latter suggestion Jetty; waiting until AEX can realistically fund their own development. The obstacle is that they have to report back to the TPDC annually on "progress". This year's progress is "ticked" in the seismics that ORCA are producing for us. The question is what next? At the AGM the BoD indicated that they expect to be able to tick this box as both the BpD and ARA, in particular, would perfer AEX toi retain their "operator" status of the Kiliwani license. If they were to manage this they would still expect to "outsource" much of the heavy lifting to seismic and drill partners through a commercial arrangement (possibly for a proportion of the income stream? - purely speculating on that).

Just one thought though - there may be unpaid bills that predate 1st January and these may well be "fair game"....

I understand your logic BG but, particularly in the light of the asertions at the AGM regarding their reputation, think it unlikley that ARA would be trying to force SCIR into default at the same time as they are trying to buy their assets; and through an existing arrangemnet that means that ARA would be responsible for all of SCIR's costs from 1st January if they succeed.

But hey, stranger things have happened.

Must dash - good luck all.