Member Info for CrustyPete

Then they won't get filled will they BG!? What are you suggesting, gthat the MM's sit on theior hands waiting for the sales to trickle in?! Pull the other one.

If the weight of movement in positive and the momentum sitting with the Buyside the price will rise.... those with their large Buy orders at .90p will have to pay up or go without.

The alternative as many have highlighted her in the past is that they may indeed look to drop the pirce to shake out some sellers - though that happens on far fewer occasions than many would have us believe.

If that was the case ICB why don't the MM's simply raise the price to encourage the sellers......? So no, not the case.... based on your theory the net sells vs buys position every day would broadly be zero and that is so very rarely the case.

The acid test will be whether it gets through the 1p level and stays there. I certainly hope so :-)

I understand your thinking Aimster; though no matter how good the results might be, if the "pumpers and dumpers", "rampers" and "rainbow chasers" have raised expectations wildly above any likely outcome that inevitably risks disappointment and everyone running for the hills.....

Sorry that last sentence should have read "is likely to require them to fund and manage..." not "will". That is all down to the negotiations; though it is the BoD's working assumption.

The BoD are optimistic that we have large quantities of condensate / liquids (and no, not Oil) from one or both layers and this they will be able to separate at wellhead (after building relevant infrastructure) and deliver to industry etc at a good premium; they also would like to sell gas directly to industry (Dangote and others) but this is dependant on the GSA negotiations and if they are to avoid selling at "wellhead", will require them to fund and manage the pipeline construction.

Moreover Aimster if we do, as we did at Kiliwani, end up selling the gas at "wellhead" (the most likely scenario) it will not be ARA or AEX that will be exporting the Oil.

We will not know this, or many other things (price, pipeline etc) until completion of the GSA negotiations, not anticipated until well into 2023.

I think the differentation between Cretaceous and Jurrasic is not that between Gas and Oil - they are both Gas plays with a possibility of Oil - but the fact that one is an Appraisal Drill (what once was NT3) and an Exploration Well (CH1). Is this likely to mean that they separate out the prelininary drill results? I think not; there will be a matter of only 3 weeks or so between completion of the first and second layers; so whilst they might have visibility of the preliminary results for NT3 sooner I suspect they will leave reporting for the full drill result.

Aimster I broadly agree with your analysis and have made a similar post not too long ago, though I do disagree with one of your conclusions and that is on the sp during the spud. The principle diference between NT2 and CH1 is the possibility of Oil. I do not want to overstate it because I remain very sceptical of the likely prospects for Oil shows BUT that is not to say that everyone agrees with me, most won't and I expect the "rainbow chasers" will be pumping this for all they are worth. Consequently I expect to see the sp over 5or 6p during the spud. Though how long it stays there and where it subsequently settles is another thing altogether.

yes tripemctripe, " then it'll be when the spudding happens", reality dawns inevitably, it is now only three months until November. Thankfully very few people seem to have been hoodwinked into your FOMO hyperbole over the last 18 months and it has allowed people to accumulate slowly in advance of the spud.

That said, once we have a rig delivery date and the spud date things should start to change for the better. September perhaps? Yes, of course, we might see a small rise on the full seismic results (whenever they are released) but highly unlikley that we will see anything significant or sustained with an August release (if we get one) if this is only going to be phase 1 results.

I am not sure I could go as far as to say "we couldn't have better people than ARA...." I am sure there are better - ARA's historic experience has largely been with Oil not Gas BUT I would happily concede that we are better off in their hands than those of Aaron Le Blanc and our erstwhile AEX technicians - YES Tanzania!

I may have been proven to be wrong many times tripemctripe but rarely by you and on far, far fewer ocassions than you have!!

Do remember tripemctripe that it is now August 2022 and we still haven't seen 1.2p reached and maintained let alone 1.5p and you have been predicting it now for about 18 months. When it does happen you will no doubt be telling us that you were "right on the money"!! Even an broken clock is right twice a day tripe.

It must be a wonderful place in the fantasy land of tripemctripe's imagination.... I suspect that in his own head he actually believes his own drivel ;0)

Morning edgar your question "Reserves or production" - maybe should read "Resources or Production" methinks? We already have "Reserves" and yet it evidently has no bearing on the MC. I think that once we get a GSA and a Pipeline the Resources figure might have a bearing on the MC and surely more still once we start to produce and earn an income from Ntorya?

One word of caution though - just take a look at WEN - they had an income to 31st Dec of just under $24m and a profit of just over $6 and yet have a MC of just £41m on a PE of just over 10...... I will leave you to make your own comparisons.

Morning Tanz, you say "...... 3D data to know a dry well is now very unlikely"? Yes I am sure that is true but was a "dry well" EVER likley?! I don't think so - more question of how much and under what pressure methinks?

9th June to PoC "As you say, they must have completed the first phase of the survey.....Meanwhile the data from the first phase is already being analysed."

Oh really? I think today's announcement only goes to show how ridiculous that assertion actually was.

"I do research and analysis, post any facts I find, maybe a few opinions or suggestions of what might occur next" Really? So what category would the above disinformation fall into?

Back on filter?!! Lol Maybe if you hadn't had me on filter for the last few months you would not have made the false accusation in the first place! Do you have a selective memory tripe or do you only choose to read the things that suit your preconceptions? You are wrong tripemctripe to suggest that I have denied a phased approach to seismics ever being the case - if you actually read my posts you would see that I have always accepted that they would have a phase 1 seismic session to identify the CH1 position - where we disagree is that I have said that I am not sure they will issue an RNS to announce it. Moreover tripemctripe you have been telling us that the sesimic results would be out months ago and here we have confirmation that we won't even have phase 1 results until the end of August. When I reported, after the AGM, that we would get seismics towards the end of August you accused me of making it up, that the seismic results would obviously be out much sooner than that!!

Laughable.

So pray tell us tripemctripe when do you now think we will get the full seismic results?

I have to admit though that I was expecting to get more than just the CH1 location from the August seismic release; looks like tripemctripe and his mate PoC will have to wait even longer for their seismic propelled sp spike - lol ;0)

Morning all, simply restates what was suggested at the AGM, essentially that the first Seismic results are due at the end of August and that the target November spud date is realistic and more than achievable. But of course some (yet again) were suggesting that I was making it up...... Nice to see that nothing has slipped ;0)

Anyway, have a great weekend folks - until next week GLA.