Member Info for Chuffchuff

An example of a company that recently did a fundraise:

At the beginning of June Helium 1 was sat at about 1.40 when what I would presume was inside knowledge of a placing to raise finance saw a drop to about 1.15 in fairly short order. This was the SP on the date the placing announcement was formally made. The Issue Price of 50p represented a discount of approximately 56.5 per cent. However, less than a month later the SP is back up to 1.17 (marginally above the pre-dilution price on the day of the raise which was 10th June). Pity those who sold out. With a well funded operation going into the future, regardless of risk and volatility with this type of stock, the trading volumes have been crazy the past few days. It is not quite back to the price it was before the insiders got to know about the raise, but it goes to show that a dilutive raise can be recovered remarkably quickly in SP terms alone, quite aside from the fact that the company moves forward with the funding they required. Can be a springboard to greater things.

Very informative Bamps. Thanks very much 👍

Could you explain a bit more about salinity Bamps. Assuming both pressure and volume are no longer an issues is it because salinity degrades equipment or is there another impact with salinity that needs mitigation?

Funny how the "cabal" nine mentions have often expressed different views at to their preferred route to a healthy return. Not very cabal-like. As for the markets it's pretty damn obvious that the institutions in particular don't like uncertainty even if the upside potential is massive. That's why as individual investors some of us build a portfolio of 'safer' market-driven funds while using our accumin to diversify into side punts where with a bit of research it's possible to speculate on a higher level of risk vs reward. It really isn't rocket science nines. I'm very comfortable with short term SP stagnation when I understand the reasons why. The stagnation in fact bought me time to buy more. A lot of my other punts are a tiny proportion of my portfolio where I'm not prepared to risk more. This is the one solo share where I kept averaging down to a significant degree. I don't question others approach but I do wonder nines if you were just an idiot to invest because you can't back up that investment with anything other than the fact that you were a sheep. If you want to follow the markets that are currently wary of GGP then sell the French Connection uk out of here. Honestly, just give up rather than try to persuade the rest of us we are going to be screwed over. I don't urge you to buy. In fact I hope you don't. The less profit you make here the better as far as I'm concerned

"The board are among some of the most respected names in mining... not here for a small operation but here for a big payday". That's why I hold even if the market doesn't like the current uncertainty.

No* news

This talk of new news meaning the SP drifts lower isn't born out by the stats. For approximately 5 months it's moved up and down and up and down within relatively small parameters - but I don't see any downward trend. Stagnation yes. We know the news we are waiting for, but that's not entirely in our hands until Newmont conclude negotiations.

Not sure where all the capital letters went on my previous post went! Left here to haunt another board where people speak only with CAPLOCK ON maybe?

Hi MH01

Whilst I'm happy with my level of risk I also hope it was clear that I'm having to manage my finances around that risk. Whilst initially I thought I might be able to draw on some profit for retirement/a house move I'm now having to take a slightly longer term view. This is not a be-it-and-end-all share for me, but it does mean I'm likely to draw on my bedrock funds and shares leaving a higher than preferred weighting in this. I am taking this level of risk with my eyes open. The things you mention about news may help manage your short term risks but at what cost? If SD gives a blow by blow account it may give competitive advantage to others with skin in the game. A type of Purdah may also be in play. I am happy to bear the current risk for an increased up swing. I prefer the next news to be consolidated news of a deal followed in short order by FS and DTM and we get a sharp upswing followed by ASX leading to further momentum. I am not expecting it tomorrow, I'm prepared to wait for as long as Newmont said it might take (but I can't see why it it is in anyone's interests to take that long). My revised ever adaptive financial planning has taken account of this.

it's quite possible to be a shareholder frustrated with short term delays but still highly exited about the potential future returns. none of this sits particularly well with my short term life ambitions but i'm readjusting timeframes and managing personal finances and investments around that. i'm not particularly of the view that we should be drip fed news when nothing much my have changed. notwithstanding the fact that important ventilation work has been undertaken and greater knowledge built on tweaking the decline and how to manage the water going forward, the fatalistic near conspiracy theories that havieron cannot be mined are just fanciful. pure scaremongering. why the hell would we be in this still for 100% and telfer with its well known liabilities (of which this period will have given sd and his team a far greater understanding in terms of getting the right deal and factoring in ongoing costs)? either people are invested and **** scared and ought to have bailed long ago or they are fear mongering out of charity. both of those sound ridiculous so the only other option is that they are disrupting for sadistic pleasure or to keep the sp low for financial gain. i have slightly more sympathy for those who are more concerned about the type of deal and the financing etc, but even here we don't need people to tell us that we are in a risk game. i am happy with my level of risk. those who opt to wait on the deal are taking a different risk approach where they can either gain or lose, but to win there requires immaculate timing.

i don't believe news is necessary right now until there really is some significant change. i've long held a view that the paused decline could be in part due to ongoing negotiation regardless as to what's happening on the ground. i'm also not one for thinking "i reckon we'll have news next week". let's not buy into things we don't know. i would prefer we get news next week but as carp as this has been it remains a waiting game. daily fluctuations on sp are really nothing in the broader scheme if things.

I agree Red. A lot of speculation that nine was a shorter. I don't think so. I've seen people like him before using wordplay and supposed intellect to only come unstuck and then reveal a deeply flawed (or even dangerous) character. As a rule I don't green bin (I have done so only once) but the drivel over recent days and months has been breathtaking. I tend not to engage directly with idiots (though occasionally fail) but the odd thing does need calling out, or as you say reporting 👍

Nine two days ago:

" Saving grace is the wisdom of Bamps21"

Today:

" at best come across as a chancer and at worst, a despicable fraud".

We see the real chancer and fraud - it's in the psychotic posts you make nine

Agreed. The board was embarrassing yesterday. The current hiatus while waiting for news whilst frustrating is not within our power to influence. News will come in due course

An interesting article Bamps. The legal arguments over that miners actions would have been an interesting listen!

The idea that someone would purchase Telfer just to shut out GGP and deny them them processing of Havieron ore there is laughable. If we don't get to go it alone then much more likely is a very amicable joint venture. There is no benefit to anyone in shutting out GGP, not least because we retain a strong foothold in other tenements and it is far better to be a friend than an enemy

It did make me wonder whether the now infamous anecdote about the decline having restarted (perpetuating a mini spike in the SP through Chinese whispers) might have been best resolved by that forum contributor by sitting on his hands while twiddling his thumbs 😊

Toffers?

Another angle on this is that whatever we thought about Newcrest getting taken over and the perceived delay to our accelerated pathway to production (which is in itself debatable with the need to sort the LCA), we are probably in a much better place with Newmont sorting this. Long ago I flagged some concerns regarding Newcrest's environmental credentials and some scorn was put my way as it was deemed as a negative post. Well it seems that Newmont are having to elevate standards. As frustrating as all this is, I'm relieved we are not in a JV with Newcrest having to deal with these Telfer challenges.

If I'd written "Heffalump" I would like to think 30% was secured with negotiation pending on the remaining 70%

Speedie. You could have said it's tempting to thump and take out a lump causing a bump on the chumps that pump to a hump then dump to a slump. Just saying...