Member Info for Chuffchuff

Talking about the processing side of things at Telfer Tinners, we'll have a very ready reminder of the productivity of the area as we ready the Havieron to Telfer road turning to drop south through Antipa's Parklands tenement. Who knows, the road may even need a slight diversion. There are various scenarios to play out whether we end up in new JV's, own the lot, or simply take the tolling while we provide the service side of things via all the infrastructure at Telfer. People quite simply have a choice. You make a safer bet when the decisions have been made and maybe 3-bag or so, or you do the research and get in now and potentially 10-bag plus. To you that would be the difference between making a couple of hundred k or a million pounds. I'm not going to criticise anyone who takes a lower risk/reward path, but that's exactly what it is. Low reward.

I still have a niggle about Telfer mine, but that is part of the risk I am taking on and yes, to a certain extent that aspect I am placing in the hands of experienced heads who I trust to strike the right deal. It is clear that some are adverse to that level of risk, but it's why I and many others in here have poured over the research (some provided by very capable posters in this site). For people to suggest that many of us who have invested many tens or hundreds of thousands in this venture are doing so without adequately understanding what we are getting into is naive in the extreme. As for the rest, there has been criticism that two sides of the argument are not being heard. The fact that Plode, IOT et al are placed in this category is ludicrous. They are clearly disrupters/derampers and have no coherent argument. The evidence is in their disappearance when we move anywhere above 8p.

I regard it as entirely positive that those of us who have taken the opportunity to average down (and for my wife to have bought some of her own GGP shares for the very first time today) at these low prices, can be content that Tinners, Culpepper and perhaps a few others are likely to buy in 100k or so at higher prices to add some momentum to the up curve

Indeed TT. If anyone cares to look at a chart off GGP's SP over 6 months, Plodes posting history is the exact inverse. He disappeared for most of October through December. It's so transparent. Pretty much a sub 8p poster. Disappears any time the SP is on a different trajectory

We have to be realistic about news. We are only 6 weeks on from the announcement that Newmont were divesting, starting with their North American projects. We were looking at roughly 6 months potentially for our deal to be done and dusted, although for many reasons previously discussed, I think it could be sooner as that would benefit both parties. I have always felt that news on the dewatering might not overly benefit the sensitivities of brokering the deal. It is painful at the moment, but would it not be better to get the deal over the line (especially if we get 100% ownership), and then say "by the way the decline resumes next week"? Then we move on to FS/DTM/ASX and every other driver that is going to put a rocket under this. As poor as the SP is currently, ambiguous news is often worse than no news. I am realistic enough to appreciate however that word gets out as major decisions approach and like it or not PI's are normally the last to be switched on to sudden price movement. We choose our own path. I will be selling some other stock to buy a bit more today. It is a high risk game but my money and my choice. All I expect is for SD to honour his commitment to PI's long term. All that has happened for me is that my timescales have got longer. It's a bit if a ball ache to be fair, but that is all down to the recent history of the JV with Newcrest and then Newmont. GLA

Doing* the maths

I'm going the maths on whether to buy more now or to hold fire until the ISA rewewal date. My wife and I have £20k each earmarked. On another note I wonder when we'll get to know the rules on the additional £5k ISA allowance for investment in 'British' companies. I assuming GGP might qualify even though it operates mainly in Australia? It will all depend on how loose the terms are I guess.

Our time will come. For months we were yo-yoing with Solgold on near identical SP with daily movements reversing who was in front. On rumour they have forged ahead 50% or so and it will be no different here. There will be a rumble on imminent news I think and that will hopefully create a new base before the serious uptick. Yes the current SP is not what we want but I expect there will be many like me who have a bit to drop in when the new ISA allowance starts

I regret some of the imagery I've conjured up. Since SaS's post I keep having a Reggie Perrin moment (for those who remember). I keep visualising a hippo when certain posts pop up. It's a decent enough alternative to a green box to be fair.

Freddie, as I posted earlier I'm open to the possibility that dewatering of the LCA may be take longer for reasons other than geological ones. It may not be, but it MAY. If it is then I would suggest that it is because it serves both the interests of Newmont and Greatland while a bid and acceptance is under consideration. I'm not sure Newmont want to be at the orebody at an acceptance point of a bid. Perhaps GGP don't want to be either. Might be best not to have derisking fully complete before we takeover no? A better price for us and a further deterrent to other parties. Yes that is pure speculation on my part and I may be off the mark, but the fact is all you do is cast aspersions without ever actually stating what you yourself believe or think.

You've seen the satellite photos of the evaporation ponds, so thevdewatering isn't a myth. You've read that potentially they could build another pond, so tell us your thoughts? Actually what might really help is if you join the cause. Run a bath and sit in it for several days checking evaporation rates. Rerun the test but this time fart as frequently as you can to increase the surface area and see what effect that has on evaporation. Repeat over the course of the next couple of months but don't take your phone in there as electrics and water don't mix. Update us in a couple of months. Take one for the team. Good luck...

I realise in fact that I was thinking back to the original RNS in November mentioning the pause in the decline "This water management has indicated potential for greater volumes of water to be managed at surface than originally modelled." Although further modelling will have been carried out surely the mere fact another pond is being considered backs up the greater volume than expected idea?

Hi Bamps, I'll try to dig out where I read about water volumes when I get back home. I had thought that it was lower than expected pressure, but greater volume but I could be wrong. Either way I know it is not a case of ever getting all the water out per se. Yes indeed I poured scorn previously on those that inferred that rainfall would affect the lower aquifer as I previously mentioned it is likely to be ancient water. By definition a contained aquifer is just what it is! My mention of rainfall was simply in relation to the evaporation ponds and therefore the slowing of the capacity at which they could be utilised. I know there was a planning application in for another pond and I too will be interested whether this is constructed. It may not be worth it but I had read that another means of increasing evaporation is by agitating water either by mechanical or sonic means to increase surface area but this would most likely be an unessary cost when the space is there to simply construct another pond if required

I think good news on dewatering the lower aquifer would be ahuge boost to sentiment ahead of any deal. SD after all called this a significant derisking event.

I know that volumes have been greater than modelled but the first half of March also saw 4 times the long term average rainfall at Telfer. The second half of March appears to have remained largely dry and the 14 day forecast looks good with decent wind speeds too (which is just as key to effective evaporation). I'm still a little on the fence to what extent this process lasting 6 months or so is really about? I would find it surprising if sufficient dewatering hadn't happened within a shorter time frame and I wonder if on completion of that a resumption of the decline will go almost hand in hand with a deal being signed? I'm certainly not hanging on for an RNS tomorrow, but I do think it possible that when one drops (or perhaps even two in short order) the upsurge in buys will be very marked. Still holding with patience.

It will be a nice 'problem' to have Spade - trying to time the exit. A lot will depend on what's happening with exploration and how it works out with Telfer (both the mine and the processing plant). If we get anywhere near a 5-6 bagger in 12 to 18 months then news will dictate how I play it. Quite often I'll draw on profit and then leave my original break-even investment as a long term punt. Timing is rarely perfect but like myself, those who initially invested in the heady days with poor timing will mostly have averaged down and won't need to be too far along the up tick of the curve for this to work out. GLA

Whilst every gold boss in the country may he being tapped on the shoulder I do wonder if any will even bother to bid? Do they really want to go the the effort when GGP have right of last refusal? Not a given by any means but I could envisage quite easily a situation whereby we are the only bidder. Newmont then have a difficult decision. Do they accept a cheap offer or do they backtrack and retain a JV with us? They can't mothball Havieron as its their only way out of the financial liabilities associated with Telfer. It would be great if it very rapidly becomes apparent that there are no other bidders in the room, then perhaps... just perhaps, this dewatering miraculously completes ahead of H2 and the decline is resumed, the FS is released and in short order we have the DTM. Whilst I am ready for a longer play out I could envisage a situation where the peices slot into place much sooner than we may think. Why delay divestment if it is clear there are no other bidders? In this scenario it is best to be in it. Sure, like Culpepper I could have pulled my money out months ago for it to work elsewhere but it would be a risk beyond belief to remove it now when a series of RNS's drop in quick succession. It may not play out that way but it in my view the bigger gamble is to be out than in.

28 miles on traffic free roads is nothing Bridge. As for the rest, how else does an explorer transition to a miner? To me it's a mind-bogglingly efficient progress from exploration drill hit to production. We continue exploring as we mine and then pull in revenue. If it's too risky for you then put your money somewhere else, it's that simple really. At these prices I am sitting very comfortably with the multiples to come. If you want greater certainty then leave an investment until later but buy in at a much higher SP.

True Jiffy, but it gave us all a bit of respite for an hour or so

Aqua. In February you said you were staying put. Now you are saying you are out at the moment. You are a fraud and an attention seeker. It would seem that even near universal criticism still satisfies what you demand, which is attention of any form at all. If you are starved of it what will you do?

Red did you read Zoros post at 12.12? It's what i think is most likely happening. There's a lot of company politics and sensitive negotiation at the moment. Is it better to depressurise and then have a period of tools down, or is it maybe best to turn the taps down a bit and work through the negotiations while things are (my words here) 'deliberately slowed' a bit? I have no concerns about the aquifer. I don't want a protracted delay purely because the timescales I have based on personal circumstances mean I would like to see things seriously pushing on SP wise by 12 months. That is my timescale though. Those who can wait (and I will if I have to) will be much richer within 18 months I would say. There are serious negotiations at play. Do not expect a blow by blow account and whilst I would love it if Newmont back a full steam ahead approach ahead of divestment, why would they? What I do hope is that they sense I getting the sale done and dusted in a timely fashion or no one really wins.

So I nominate Ace for President but I understand Freddie has already lodged a complaint with the ombudsman requesting the election be stalled until we hit 10p. So the vote goes ahead on Friday... 😉

I would aso echo thanks to Dip and to many others who dedicate their own time to research and communication. The funny thing is that even in saying so the usuals will pigeonhole me and others as some kind of happy clappy gang. Those same people don't provide anything of factual relevance themselves. From my own point if view I would hope that when the depressurisation of the lower aquifer is complete EITHER a deal has been reached and we continue the decline as a solo entity, OR, Newmont realise the wisdom in continuing the decline until such time as a deal is struck. Delay = uncertainty and uncertainty has the potential to damage what Newmont can value Havieron at, while all the while Telfer winds down. Regardless of Newmont focusing on North American operations first I think there is a special case for them here to get best value for both GGP and for themselves by avoiding stagnation altogether. That is achieved by either of the two routes above.