RE: What have we really got here ?12 Sep 2024 10:11
I have a lot of respect for Panama's post at 23:47 yesterday. It's not glossy eyed whilst still recognising the gains from the proposed deal. It's easy to come at this with a very long term view and believe it is as good as it gets. Some of us weren't (or can't be here) for 5+ years. We don't need the violins out for that. The simple fact is that what I considered might be a four-bagger within in 12 months or so, from the re-rate now has to be a six or seven bagger and that simply isn't going to happen in that time frame. I think it is realistic to drill into SD's terminology about accretive. Yes it means gradual growth but I think it's legitimate to suggest that long term private investors are not initially being given the opportunity, nor the reward that we deserve for staying with the plan. The logistics of buying in to the retail offer were not available to those of us without immediately ready cash or the type of trading accounts that could immediately offer the facility. It doesn't matter that we are only a few points up on the deal price. For the first time I don't think we've been considered in the manner that we should.
With all that said Shaun has done what needed to be done with regards to the different funding strands. I have no problem with that at all. The much slower pace of Havieron however, whether due to overspilling evaporation ponds or whatever, is not going to springboard the SP in the way it would have, regardless of us generating income from Telfer. The occasions where Shaun remarked on the revised expedited route through the LCA was not giving us a signal that we were in truth looking at 2027. On that one point it feels a bit disingenuous. I wasn't planning to hold that long personally. I was just off break even a week ago with thoughts of quadrupling my money in perhaps 18 months. That has gone. My risk. I have to say that as much as people will hate to concur, Culpepper had it right. Strategically at least. I think there was too much said by him that was a bit disparaging about those more optimistic of more imminent returns, but that is under the bridge now. I continue to hold and am indeed still trying to buy in again now other funds I sold has cleared. Yet another example of me averaging down to stay in the game. Are you listening Shaun? Still here but I'm certainly overweight in this stock. I feel I've had to be to stay in the game.