Member Info for chilting

"Don't invest more than you can afford, don't rule out huge gains from this level and don't expect miracles overnight."

Exactly - got it in one!

Don't expect logic from the public just prejudice, envy and shortsightedness.

The pro Brexit vote was down to simple prejudice against foreigners and had nothing to do with ration thought.

Most of of the public don't understand that profit drives growth and without it we won't get decent public services.

Politicians are no better, their agenda is driven by prejudice and shortsightedness alongside an appalling lack of judgement that causes more problems than it solves, especially when they meddle with markets.

Also, it defies belief that public sector workers haven't been offered the same percentage rise as the average for the private sector - especially health workers - what a bloody shambles!

L3
Covid did a lot of damage here - sales fell because surgery using TRX products was put on hold.
Recovery was slow but is now getting going again.
The point is that looking back over the last two years will give a misleading picture of the companies prospects.

As is often the case, AIM companies don't stand scrutiny for past results, its the future that matters.

I think its quite likely that the SP will rise dramatically at some point, but its very difficult to predict when - for me this is a hold and speculative buy but spread you risk by also investing in other AIM companies then at lease one of them may take off.

909
The key reason for an AIM listing is so the company can raise funds when needed for whatever purpose.
This is one of the main reasons why AIM investments are so speculative.
You cannot fault management for this - its part of their job.

Not great prospects here for 2023.
It turns out that the AIM market turned in the worst performance for any large global stock index for 2022, with growth shares also being given the cold shoulder by most investors.

But with sentiment against EQT and the valuation being rock bottom, I guess anything that the company does to impress will at least be good news for existing investors and should lift the SP a bit.

However, another round of fund raising cannot be ruled out, meaning that even a modest recovery of losses is unlikely in 2023. Maybe a takeover would at least shorten the misery for investors.

From the companies point of view things look brighter, they are pushing forward the pipeline - very slowly - and are moving to concentrate on supplying the tech without laying out so much of their own capital. But its hard going in a recession and realistically the macro needs to improve dramatically before things get better.

So for long term holders, its still a hold but only because most will be well underwater anyway. As a long term buy - not until the economy gets better - traders take their own chance.

The 13 weeks up until the end of 2022.

Goodies
In a recession demand is bound to be reduced from all income groups but M&S should be less affected than most UK retailers because of their premium status.

Also you have to consider the effect of rising costs - we don't know yet how this will impact profit margins.

There is also the Governments reluctance to give public sector workers the equivalent pay rises to the private sector - all this is lowering retail demand and also causing disruption in the process.

So, the current SP is probably a good reflection of where we are now, we need the macro to sort itself out before we see any meaningful rise.

How the Ocado Solutions partner performs at any one time is largely dependent on their positioning in the market.

For example Ocado Retail with the M&S partnership is a premium group that doesn't compete on price so much with the big four, therefore in a recession sales will suffer.

What hasn't been tested yet, as far as I know, is how a budget supermarket setup, would perform as a Ocado Solutions partner. Maybe we will see this evolution of online grocery at some stage, especially as capital costs fall to set up CFC's. Maybe its something for Ocado Retail to consider, using a new branding, in the future.

Its interesting to note that the fastest growing market for online delivery of groceries in the US is amongst the over 60's.
Its also the fastest growing age group in the US with 75% of them using the internet.
The potential here is enormous for Ocado's partner Kroger, this is a very demanding market looking for specific products, good service and reliable availability - all things that Ocado Solutions are good at.

Recovery very much depends on the macro - be patient.

MKS has already proved its self above £2.50 with the fairly rapid rise from £1.31 in July 2021 to £2.57 last January.
If the macro does improve selling out at £1.75 will probably be premature, especially when dividends return.

MKS is to me a long term hold - expect up to £3.00 within 6 months of financial recovery and good dividends to follow.

There are massive holes in UK retail and they are growing - M&S is well poised to exploit the potential.

Auson
Yes, the problem she has is that she is probably well underwater on most of those holdings, assuming she has held for a while - I am in a similar position with OCDO. She is trying to talk up the market.

But that doesn't mean she is wrong that growth stocks won't rebound quickly if investors see a way though the recession to lower interest rates.

I still see a recovery sometime in 2023 - most of the current problems can be solved with a Chinese recovery and the US economy is in a much better shape than the UK and most of Europe. To be brutal, its the elderly who will take the brunt of Covid in China, not the working population - vaccination rates are low in the elderly.

Trying to analyse Cathy's thoughts on energy shares is difficult, but she may be correct that big oil shares and pharma shares could fall because investors may take profit and look for bargains elsewhere - sell BP and buy Tesla for example as a recovery play.
Likewise ENQ is well down on BP - oil investors will I think take profit on BP and look at other value options at some stage in 2023.

Not a fan, but I do think the markets generally will get a big boost when it becomes clear that interest rates have peaked.

Stock markets generally rise sharply as recession recedes and before recovery, especially this time I think, because the private sector is still in fairly good shape, as long as the politicians don't nick all their profits, but that's another story.

She will probably be right about growth stocks rebounding with falling interest rates but energy stocks will likely hold their value or rise with demand for energy.
In fact falling interest rates will do the whole market a great deal of good and could bring back the bull market for all, well ahead of any financial recovery.

Its the public sector that's under severe strain at the moment, not so much the private sector, that seems much more resilient with company earnings holding up reasonably well.

Hopefully growth will start to bale out the public sector with increasing tax revenues in 2022, but it will be painfully slow.

Ocado Retail are relaunching their website soon, so maybe we will see some changes in how they market and sell non grocery items - additional modes of delivery may be included.

At the moment non grocery doesn't exactly shine on the Ocado Retail site even though the range has expanded over the last 12 months.

I am quite sure that there must be a way to add in small items from M&S.com to be delivered by Ocado Retail.

Offering a free 3-7 day delivery - assuming the Ocado retail customer has a regular weekly order - would allow M&S goods to be sorted and packed as normal at the M&S warehouse and then transported in bulk to the relevant CFC and incorporated in the customers grocery order for delivery.

Using hydrogen in the grid to replace natural gas has never been a serious option - the Government are well behind the consensus view here and have been pratting about trying to prove that it is possible and wasting money in the process.

It is however perfectly possible to use around 10% hydrogen mixed in with natural gas without having to make any changes to the gas grid and appliances.

The main use for hydrogen and other gasses going forward, apart from electricity generation, will probably be as a direct replacement for natural gas in heavy industry on a user by user basis.

if Enquest plan to produce green hydrogen on Shetland it would probably be better to use it locally - an electric battery manufacturer based at Sullom Voe for example.

Very good news indeed - a major financial constraint neatly side stepped - well done DP!

Yes, it was the US market that pulled us down this week after the FED said they still needed to keep increasing interest rates.
Probably more blood on the carpet this week.

The interesting thing now is to see what happens to sentiment in the new year.

909
My guess is that if you sat in with the Directors for a day, you would get a very different impression of the issues facing the company and how they were being dealt with.
Patience is required, so don't give up - remember Musk didn't with Tesla.

When I was invested, I generally compared ENQ's SP with BP's - if you look over the last five years, you will see that ENQ follows BP, but with more volatility.
Since the summer this has not been the case - I guess the windfall tax has done the damage.

If ENQ had continued to follow BP the SP would have been in the region of 40-45p by now.

The question is now - what actual financial impact will the windfall tax have on ENQ?

My guess, is that most of the damage done to the SP is to sentiment and when ENQ release results the SP will regain its normal pattern of following BP and Brent.