Member Info for chilting

M&S products accounted for 30% of customer baskets over the Christmas period on Ocado Retail.

The demand for M&S products is having a very strong positive effect on Ocado Retail sales and providing a strong incentive for consumers to use Ocado Retail.

As the big four concentrate on more profitable - for them - instore sales, in an effort to retain market share with the discounters, its likely that customers who prefer buying online will see Ocado Retail with M&S products as their best option.

M&S have already said that they won't make a decision regarding dividends until the year end -

"The Group enters this period of uncertainty with a significantly improved balance sheet position, with very low refinancing requirements following several years of debt reduction. However, given the macro outlook the board will defer consideration of capital allocation policy and options for reinstating capital returns to shareholders until nearer the year end."
Half Year RNS 9th Nov 2022

Maybe more significant for M&S is the JD Sports numbers - 20% increase in revenue over Christmas.
That will include high ticket/high margin items on par with M&S - bodes very well for clothing.

Nike trainers from JD for the teenagers - Jaeger top from M&S for the 20-30s - M&S Cardigan for Granny.

I think the anticipation of a good Christmas trading period has already been largely priced in, so we probably won't get a big jump on Thursday and the SP will mainly continue to be influenced by the macro.

Don't expect any news - or even hints - regarding dividends - this was from the half year report on 9th November 2022 -

"The Group enters this period of uncertainty with a significantly improved balance sheet position, with very low refinancing requirements following several years of debt reduction. However, given the macro outlook the board will defer consideration of capital allocation policy and options for reinstating capital returns to shareholders until nearer the year end."

So, its probably wait and see until the year end when its reported in May.
If the macro continues to improve and dividends are reinstated this will I think be take off time with much more institutional investment leading the way back to a FTSE100 listing.

The German's certainly need to up their game.
For a country that prides itself for its green credentials and one that has had Green politicians in power for decades, its energy policy has been blown apart by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and its reliance on Russian Gas.

The result now is that there is real pressure now for change from all sides - especially when news stories like this one hit the headlines, as Germany slides back to reliance on one of the worst possible energy sources.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-64187212

Good things can come out of the Germans mismanagement - we should see a much more positive drive now towards greener energy in Germany that will spill over globally.

All eyes on Thursday this week with M&S trading update first thing followed by US inflation numbers for December early afternoon.

All eyes on Thursday with M&S trading update first thing followed by US inflation numbers for December early afternoon.

Long term depends on so many factors, mainly the nature of the business and its aims, so I don't think there is an answer to the question - "how long is long term."
In Eqtec's case after being derailed by Covid and now recession, long term seems longer than ever.

The main thing is that there is always the potential to win big with a growth company investment - that's the gamble.
Also, take profit when you can with the aim of retrieving you capital investment.

The outlook for investors is still poor here but that's the case for investors in most growth businesses at the moment - big and small, look at Tesla for example.

The SP will probably be in the doldrums for an extended period because growth will bring more demands for extra cash as the company moves foreword.

That is the basic problem for investors - the SP is not moving up because of the economy, therefore, fund raising will have much more impact on shareholder value - catch 22.

Eqtec the company is at last making progress, remembering that this is new tech so progress is bound to be slow, and the future is looking much brighter but it will be a very long time before investors share that fortune.

There is certainly volatility and sub 650 is still very possible, but I think that as the economy improves and Ocado starts to bring in profits from Solutions we should see a solid return the 1000-1500 range by the Autumn.

The problem is that Equinor is 67% owned by the Norwegian state, therefore, it will certainly be a political rather than a economic decision if Rosebank goes ahead.
With the campaigners and the press all ratchetting up the anti, anything could happen.

I can see Cambo getting sanctioned but Rosebank is very problematic because of the politics, it will basically be a negotiation between the UK and Norwegian Governments - anything could happen and public and most political pressure in the UK will be very anti, not sure about Norway.
It would probably be better for Enquest if Equinor sold their stake in Bressay.

Simply that Equinor are pivotal to deciding if the Bressay development is to go ahead and they also have a decision to make on Rosebank that signals the future of North Sea oil, therefore, anything Equinor related is relevant to Enquest.

As I said its a point of interest and may indicate Equinor's future intent, especially with the Norwegian Government owning 67% of Equinor.

Just as a point of interest for Enquest Investors - news curtesy of AquaeSulis on the CWR board. Equinor are Enquest's main partner in the Bressay field.

" Energy giant RWE has agreed with Norwegian rival Equinor to make joint investments in hydrogen-ready gas-fired power plants in Germany, which will have a total capacity of 3 gigawatts by 2030.
The agreement also includes the construction of a pipeline to carry hydrogen from Norway to Germany.
The two companies said the partnership will help to ramp up hydrogen use in Germany and across the EU while strengthening energy security as the Kremlin continues to cut gas supplies to the continent.
The project will initially focus on low-carbon “blue” hydrogen, with a target of generating fully-renewable “green” hydrogen in the future."

Don't expect any help at all from the Government for the oil and gas industry.

I am putting aside my own views and simply reflecting public opinion in the UK.

The debate is now rapidly moving on to the question of if any new licences for oil and gas should be issued and the verdict from most seems to be no. There is also a clear majority in favour of more wind power - mostly offshore - and wave power.

This article captures the rhetoric -
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/environment/labour-keir-yougov-nhs-university-college-london-b1051048.html

Small North Sea Oil companies have been thrown to the wolves by Government and big oil and are completely exposed with no lobbying power at any level.

They have a choice of following the likes of BP in their quest for net zero or simply maximising their current assets and cashing out.

Its certainly the case that the AIM listing has held back the SP - AIM was the worst performing large turnover share index globally in 2022 - also investors are also looking for their jam today, so growth companies weren't in fashion during 2022.

Add to that the way the market logarithms constantly look for liquidity by pulling the SP lower - mm's only make money when they trade - and its hardly surprising that the SP ended the year down.

Hopefully with a US listing and consolidation alongside good trading news we will see something much better this year.

I am also optimistic that share prices in general will recover this year, with investors looking to invest for recovery in tech and growth stocks over the next few months, ahead of actual economic recovery.

Good news for Ocado Retail - Data from Kantar showed that Ocado sales increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to Christmas Day, as it maintained a market share of 1.7%. Inflation also on the slide.

Next PLC Christmas update tomorrow morning - always a good indicator for M&S - ahead of M&S update on Thursday 12th January.

Lets hope this momentum is maintained - we are certainly seeing some green shoots now!

Good news for Ocado Retail - Data from Kantar showed that Ocado sales increased by 8.2% year-on-year in the 12 weeks to Christmas Day, as it maintained a market share of 1.7%.

The subsidies paid by the UK Government to offshore wind producers simply guarantee a minimum price for wind power based on the wholesale price for electricity. If electricity prices rise above the minimum wholesale price then the subsidies start to be repaid. So the so called subsidy is just a mechanism to protect wild producers capital investment.

Maybe the oil and gas sector should ask for a similar deal in the North Sea to guarantee capital investment and boost UK fuel security - it would make investment in Bentley and Bressay much more likely.