Member Info for chilting

Just added this morning.

Excellent start - lets hope we can make progress above 148p this week and towards 160p - long overdue.

Well, Brent is more or less back to pre Covid levels - where to next?
Its up 70% since the US election and the US media are calling $3 gasoline at the pumps.

Logic says maybe a correction to the reverse but with demand increasing will this be the case?
Presumably OPEC+ will open the taps when they are able.

The price spike will also give US shale and other oil companies around the world good opportunities to hedge.
Will we see a race to increase production in the US and elsewhere?

I think that MKS will turn out to be a good steady long term investment for those of us who took advantage of the low entry point back in the summer - below £1 - the SP could easily double over from present levels the next few years as the company moves forward and dividends should eventually be good. My main reason for investing in MKS is to invest profits made more speculatively elsewhere, in this case CWR.

Ocado is far more dynamic and anything is possible, I think long term investors here will continue to see excellent capital growth for a prolonged period. The level of investment here deserves to be much higher than MKS. Its certainly a case of buying in the dips and not selling at all.

So both companies are worthy of investment but for different reasons and both deserve a place in any diverse portfolio.

The biggest spike in oil prices occurred in 2007-8.
Brent started 2007 at $55 before increasing to over $139 by June 2008 and falling back to $39 by the end of 2008.
There was suspicion at the time that speculators pushed up the price - I guess there would be similar suspicions about hedge funds if it happened now.
But it does seem that the main driver was a decrease in non OPEC supply - parallels with US shale in 2021 - plus a lot of small scale incidents that fuelled the spike.
This article, written 2009 is well worth a read.

https://www.resourcesmag.org/common-resources/the-2008-oil-price-shock-markets-or-mayhem/

Yes, looking at that headline its easy to guess what the next line in the Chancellors speech will be.

Hopefully, though it will just be a tax per transaction, rather than on the value of the order - Ocado benefit's from anything that pushes the average order size up - in this case it could just encourage the customers who place lots of small orders to reduce their order frequency and place larger orders.

Pelle
If KSA increase production now, it will only delay the inevitable rise and maybe make the eventual price hike much more dramatic when they get to the stage when supply cannot be increased anymore.

More good news on the vaccine front - especially for the global rollout to the third world.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccines-johnson-j/u-s-authorizes-jjs-covid-19-vaccine-making-it-third-available-idUSKCN2AR0PT

ZFG
No, I am still investing here and can see a good upside.
Its a bit pointless us all being cheerleaders, objective comment is useful as well - just tell it as we all see it.

The strategy has to be to buy as many as you can afford now and then top slice as the SP rises.
I will do this and invest the profits directly into FTSE100 and 250 companies.
This strategy has worked well for me over the last year or so with CWR.
Remember, its not the number of shares that you hold its their current value and unlocking profits to diversify your portfolio has to be good practice.

hedged
Ocado's business structure is based on Customer Fulfillment Centres and their capacity dictates total achievable turnover.

The only way that they can substantially increase turnover is to build more CFC's - they plan to open another 3 this year, eventually adding another 40% capacity to their UK business.

Obviously, other supermarket chains are more nimble than this and can add capacity quite easily by simply buying more vehicles and hiring more staff, but this is expensive and inefficient, it simply eats into profits with every additional home shopping order.

So, globally the only real answer is automation of grocery delivery from CFC's and with the growth in demand for home delivery, Ocado is set to benefit as a tech company rolling out the CFC's around the world - currently 14 are under construction.

and China
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-economy-pmi/chinas-factory-activity-expands-at-a-slower-pace-in-february-misses-expectations-official-pmi-idUSKCN2AS05D?il=0

!00% sunny solar Jan

Very good romaron, but it's nothing to Crow about.

Hello Pelle
According to Ancestry DNA, I may be 5% Swedish.
I think that the low oil price has held back development of renewables, so if we did see Brent rising as a result of a supply shortage, that would I think greatly accelerate the adoption of renewables, especially as the oil majors have such a big interest in renewables - basically high returns from oil would fund renewables.

I would say that Pelle could easily be right at the top end of forecasts providing the danger of Corvid recedes.

But, it is also important to think of the consequences of high oil prices.

We could see a quick resurgence in US shale and other producers such as Venezuela could come back strong, so any high spike could be short lived and maybe 2022 may not be as good as anticipated.

Also, consider the effect on renewables, this sector would also benefit from high oil prices and maybe accelerate their development in much the same way as online shopping has prospered in the last year.

The big beneficiaries of high oil prices could be BP and Shell, who are diversifying into renewables, especially if they have capital to inject into renewables - Enquest would do well to try and get in on the act with carbon capture.

Boyobach
The SP did bounce of 1200 early on Friday - hence my feeling that this was the bottom, but we will see.
The market cap is £2,114m - still rather high - so you could be right, but sentiment is firing CWR.

The best news for renewable stocks could be a high oil price for the next couple of years - if it becomes economically desirable to switch to renewables, as well as desirable from a climate change perspective, then hold on to your hats - this could fly.

We may have already started the next step up, it does seem a bit overdue, I think we can expect the SP to revalue to around the 160-180p mark over the coming weeks.
Still a long way to go though, I am expecting the SP to double over the next 2-3 years - MKS is a excellent and safe long term hold, starting with an average of around 100p.

Boyobach
Looking at the charts you may be correct but sentiment is high, especially with regard to potential and the hydrogen link.

It looks like 1200 is the bottom and this makes the stock a strong buy for a long term hold. The stock had been dramatically overbought, hence the fall.

Sometimes you have to pay what would seem to be a high price to get a quality stock, there are still plenty of buyers out there at this level so this is a good opportunity.

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CWR/trading-update-g33br59zswgqewj.html