Member Info for chilting

The algorithms that fix the SP are adjusted to accommodate all variables including a sell off in a particular sector.

Therefore because CWR is classified as a tech stock the SP will be affected to some degree if there is a sell off in the tech sector.

The fall since the beginning of March has nothing to do with CWR - its simply global market forces - all tech stocks are suffering.

When that reverses, SP will recover to around 1200p and probably flatline for a while.

SP currently dependent on when global tech sell off ends - no sign yet.

Look for the reversal - fantastic buying op then.

SP should quickly recover to around 2200p.

SP currently dependent on when global tech sell off ends - no sign yet.

Look for the reversal - fantastic buying op then.

SP should quickly recover to around 1200p.

NASDAQ futures showing drop of over 2%.

Yes, big sell off in Asia of tech shares overnight and NASDAQ futures now down over 2% so a bit of a gloomy day.

At times like this when its all down to the macro you just simply have to be patient or better still top up.

Yes, this is the beauty of Ceres, they are still a small company without the overextending capital outlay of most growth companies, but the licence model gives them the opportunity to hike up revenue when the big boys make their move to use the technology.

Looking good for this week - NASDAQ Futures currently up 1.59%.

Tech stocks looking cheap again.

All Ocado's profits from the retail division are used for investment into the tech business at the moment plus a lot more investment from bonds and equity. An extra £1 billion was raised last June.

At the moment Ocado is very much in the spending phase of its development.

As new CFC's open globally - 14 are in the pipeline at the moment - the goals of the business will become clearer.

Retail is only 10% of the business - the other 90% is tech - hence the way the SP moves with the NASDAQ.

I have a midweek smart pass that gives free deliveries Tuesdays to Thursdays for a cost of £45 per year - you also get discounts on some items. I order every two weeks, so that costs about £1.75 per delivery.

During the first lockdown, I was offered infrequent delivery slots because I had the pass, that kept me supplied without having to go elsewhere.

Last Friday I had an email inviting me to book a regular delivery slot every week if required.

The super deductions are tailor made for growth companies like Ocado - who knows in a few years time we may be labelling Ocado Retail's other partner, that old dinosaur, MKS a growth company.
As for Which - the stuff you use toilet paper for! - you would be amazed how much they charge companies who have received a Best Buy to mention the fact on their advertising.

My other tech holding CWR has shown an almost identical trading pattern to Ocado over the last few weeks - falling since the middle of February.

That is also showing similar signs of a good recovery next week - both stocks followed a fairly similar trading pattern during 2020 - although CWR is an AIM listed share, so is inclined to be volatile.

So I guess we are looking at a rebound in tech stocks after lots of investors switched to Covid recovery stocks in the past few weeks - suddenly tech stocks - the darlings of the market - look good value again.

A lot of people couldn't get why Ocado Retail didn't ramp up capacity even more during the lockdowns.

In actual fact, for the business to run efficiently it has to run more or less at full capacity. The idea, to increase market share is to build more CFC's - hence why one more has just opened and three more will be open by the end of the year, ramping up capacity by 40%.

Looking forward as more customers are signed up more CFC's will open - the closer the CFC's are together, the more efficient the business becomes - as long as the CFC's run at more or less full capacity.

Following this logic to its limits, Ocado retail could supply the whole of the grocery market in the UK, not that that would ever happen, although looking at how Amazon have developed, Ocado Retail could get rather large, especially if the other 50% of Ocado Retail was sold to a mid market player like Morrisons.

It looks like WTB has revalued to around 3500p from the beginning of Feb low - I guess it will flatline for while before taking off when Hotels are allowed to fully reopen.

Looking like a bounce back early next week towards 1200-1300p.
The elastic has been pulled back too far - wait for the ping as the SP is propelled forward again.
Hence the large canny trades after the bell.

Fraser Group is bleating about business rates in an RNS issued this morning -

" Further to the budget announcement by the Chancellor Rishi Sunak on 3 March 2021, the Frasers Group wishes to note its disappointment at the business rates relief announced. Whilst the Retail Industry as a whole has repeatedly asked for structural reform of business rates, none has been forthcoming. Frasers Group and many retailers would have expected suitable relief until structural reform is implemented.
The £2m rates cap on 'businesses' from July 2021 to March 2022, makes it a near worthless support package for large retailers.
For Frasers Group this cap will make it nearly impossible to take on ex-Debenhams sites with the inherent jobs created. It will also mean we need to review our entire portfolio to ascertain stores that are unviable due to unrealistic business rates.
Frasers Group believes that retailers should pay the fair amount of rates in line with realistic rateable values, but instead we continue to have an unwieldy, overly complex, and out of date business rates regime."

The Government can clearly only do a certain amount to help business and helping smaller more vulnerable businesses has to be the priority, but this issue may explain why we are not seeing the boost we hoped for in the M&S SP as a result of the budget.

Todays move by OPEC+ has given the potential to smooth the bumps.
The result could be a more a sustained period of rising oil prices, rather than a dip followed by a big spike.

Great day today guys - well done.

The market is simply revaluing hydrogen shares after they moved into heavily overbought territory.
I did think that 1200 was the bottom and that the SP would just flatline there for a while.
I guess that could still be the case after this dip.
The simple fact is that the market cap was to high.
We will have to be patient, the fundamentals are still the same - this is a great investment.