Member Info for Cherokee101

I'm excited about the Wilmar IPO.

YKA a 99% owned subsidiary in China is one of the largest agri businesses in the country.
So even if our China tops aren't of the highest quality, we still have exposure to China through Wilmar. Which is awesome.

The global trends are on our side, we just need the build to go steady and on budget.

Both rises and falls of this magnitude, have correlated to RNSs... and often they haven't.

Summer months are always strange, markets calm, not much news flow... I wouldn't read into it until there is something.

15lives notes the "technical" reason for the low share price, but the fundamental reasons are many and complex. Ultimately, it is because of:

1. No cash flow, no profit
2. No mine
3. 5+ years from cash generation
4. Potential for loads of issues in construction
5. Thus potential for more dilution
6. Potential for competition to ramp up
7. Lack of visible end market pricing
8. Bonds might not sell...
9. The BoD could do with a shake up

The pros currently don't outweigh the cons because it is all about potential as opposed to reality... however, I take solace in the following:
1 . Construction is ahead of schedule (market hasn't really reacted to this)
2. ToPs are very high quality (on the whole)
3. I do rate CF highly
4. We are potentially a massively disruptive company, much like when Apple brought out the Iphone to the mobile market
5. If things go to plan then the discount to NPV is absolutely insane and we stand to make a fortune

You can't value all companies on an EPS basis. It is meaningless for certain sectors... for example Technology. Amazon doesn't make any profit!
Banks for instance are always valued on a book basis, because that's a truer insight into their potential revenue generation from loans.

A profitable mining company is valued on a combination of commodity future prices plus the business earnings potential (hence why they are called a geared play on the commodity).

So SXX will be a EPS "adjusted" for the average Poly4 price.

Brandon Flowers? To paraphrase one journo:

"He looked like a mormon who read how to be like Bruce Springsteen, from a badly translated manuscript".

God damn typo knew**

Empire builders put their eggs in one basket because they normally controlled the destiny of said basket.

If I worked for Sirius and new the company from the inside, I would take a higher risk becauze I would be part of the destiny.

Putting your eggs into a basket where you cannot see all of the holes is stupid at best.

Any stock with a yield has been vastly inflated beyond belief. The hunt for income will surge on, Fed likely to cut as the next move...

Unilever is on like 23x earnings.... for a company barely growing its topline 3%.... that's horrific. Ok so the growth is "almost certain" but jeez... 23x??? It's not a innovative tech company. Pension funds dying for any sniff of income these days propping up the FTSE.... which btw looks like it is structural decline due to severe and chronic underinvestment... BATS, GSK , BT, MnS... all cut divis...

Appy Nobody with a full set of marbles is going to buy a half built mine only to plough in another cool billion, plus extra for unforeseen happenings... not whilst Gina has a big put over our heads... They will wait until we have done the hard work. Then swoop in.

Low end of 250 is about 200m market cap.

At that level the market is saying there won't ever be a mine, and it is all smoke and mirrors.

Unfortunately the BoD have historically made a dog's dinner of reassuring LTHs, so I don't expect any respite from the shorters.

Based on information out there, and reading between the lines, this is a share one must tuck under the pillow and forget about from a price perspective until about 2021. I for one, sleep better with that mentality today.

I doubt that anyone who invested with Woodford was also investing directly in the market.

J Curve.. was that RuSirius after all?

J curve is technically a private equity line. The line sinks first as capital is drawn to fund projects before shooting upwards upon profitability.

Please use commas, I am still trying to work out what you've said.

Doubleheadcoin Your talk of the SP only going lower in the short to medium term, shouldn't matter one iota to long term holders. If I believe the share price is going to be at least £1 in 7 to 10 years, then I would only top up during volatile periods. Let me paraphrase Buffett % "If you liked something at $1, you should love it at 75 cents"

Jonesrichard

I will ignore the "all in" statement because it is insane to go all in on any stock.

Listen carefully : checking the share price every 5 minutes is meaningless, it isn't a true representation of company value. Only studying the fundamentals give you that. The rest is noise (unless you want to trade like a dervish.)

It has happened again... Stocks are seriously the only asset where people review their net worth every second. Again I ask, to the price watchers, how many times a day do you call your estate agent and check your house price? Let me break this thing called "beta" down for laymen. When markets sell off, or rise sharply, stocks "classified" as cyclical will be the first to move and often have the furtherst to go. Add "zero cash flow" to that mix, and SXX will literally **** the bed when the market tanks.... and the markers are tanking badly. Stay the course and discuss fundamentals instead of price, as Myo and the other sages do. Oh and remember the most important stock rule off them all... share prices ALWAYS follow EARNINGS over the long term.

This from Muckshifter, one of the better informed posters on there. Anyone got any come backs to his Strabag comments? 16:46 muckshifter: What is happening here vindicates, imo, my post last Summer, when I suggested a huge rights issue at a time when the share price was about 40p, to get a $billion, because I thought the long proposed stage 2 financing would fail. Looking at the trades, and the stream of posts from holders who are taking up their rights and more, I think it would have been successful if only Sirius had faced up to the fact that stage 2 as proposed was not going to work. My suggestion was based on getting a billion by rights issue and then financing the rest when / if they get the shafts down to poly. If the shafts failed Sirius would probably have failed also, but with the incremental financing deal, subject to all sorts of conditions, that they have now, that seems to me to remain the case. What did disappoint me was that the incremental financing deal made it more difficult to justify buying Strabag shares as I had intended. I also checked Strabag's website to see if they had declared the second, third, and finishings tunnel contracts yet, and they are still not declared in the news section or the April presentations. The Sirius Annual Report seems to indicate that neither of these last two tunnel sections are expected to start this year, which surprises me, but explains why presumably Sirius have probably not paid for the TBMs and Strabag have not started building them, or announcing the contract.

Jango, Why do you give a flying F*** about the day to day share price. Do you look at the value of your house every second?

Here here. We can only hope the last tree shake removed most of the 2bit PIs... especiallly the ones who think long term is yesterday.