Member Info for Cherokee101

That’s not how the stock market works.

Sirius told the market they will be slowing down the build, by definition that means people will be losing their jobs. That news is already in the share price, hence 4p!!

Anyone who sells today because of job losses is an idiot and has no clue how the market prices assets.

I have nothing against shorters, it helps find the price, but to say the “majority” were here to get rich fast is not accurate.

Myself and many people I know personally who are invested here, have done so on the belief that maybe in 10 or 15 years time, they will have been on an incredible investment journey. Sure, making money was part of it, but all of the people I know did not put in their entire pension pots, they played it safe.

No lapping up spilt milk from me, I’m in the red, but I’ve still got 3 houses to my name, a great job, health and happiness. Oh, and a big SIPP.

So go and gloat somewhere else.

"If the board of directors know it is going to cost less, be quicker to build and there is an alternative financing plan coming into play they cannot be buying shares. That would be market sensitive information and insider dealing." - rainy

The onus is on the fca to prove insider dealing went on. This is incredibly hard to do and the reason Citi group managed to sell a bucket load of shares the day before the RNS.

Further dilution is not really an option. You want to raise 3bn on a 400m market cap? There would be no upside on current NPV at those levels.

Debt or start partner takes a piece of the pie.

My gut feeling says we're finished, but I've got such a horrid paper loss that holding my tiny remaining amount is the only option.

Because what does 10k actually signify? A punt? A fat finger mistake? Was he advised to do that much? By whom?

Fraser is a multi millionaire many times over.

Or maybe he is actually now broke...

Strange that trading has not been suspended to protect from hostile takeovers... or is that the plan?

The major leak (from the 30s to the 20s) on the back of the financing, was actually a lot of locals/ workers who lead the way.

There were a group of them on the Facebook page asking whether the news of dilution was true (a week before the RNS).

We can only hope this has been a reaction to the stuff going on in the wider global economy... but due to the track record of leaks we always get nervous at these times.

I have never sold a single share... hit me.

PAAA,

Yikes... my bad!

But the bond contract is up end of October... OK so what does it matter if we run out of cash by end of September...

Have you topped up recently PAAA?

Realist1

Yup, the bond deadline is end of October. The september date stuck in people's minds because the rumour mill says that's when we run out of cash.

Fraser always said, we will slow the build and progress if were about to run dry... he hasn't done that yet.

John2015

Simply taking the NPV and adjusting for no of shares (10bn shares by £10bn NPV at 20mtpa) is just a starting point. This doesn't account for any wiggle room in say;
1. Any cost overruns
2. Any time overruns
3. Any other financial issues

The basic stuff that can (and will) go wrong at some point.

Robins, of course most here will be hoping for that dear sweet mana of an RNS which tells us all systems are go.

But the world is more complex. PAAA highlighted the nuances of SXX vs other firms who have successfully raised debt finance...

We are a start up mining venture, quickly running out of cash with a commerically unproven product.

It's a great and wonderful story for the North and the UK... and what a beautiful product it is... the vegan friendly, low carbon intensive, organic wonder fertiliser that can help transform entire countries.

But we are at a junction in our little journey... the risk and reward for investors will be decided on the bonds... any substantial warrants attached and you have dilution in sheeps clothing... and quite frankly the £1 party gets pushed back another 5 to 10 years... which means I'd be better off investing elsewhere.

So yes.... hoping for good news... praying in fact... but if the bitter pill comes along, I have got the sugar spoon ready.

Good luck to all.

People need to think about what an RNS actually is. It is a regulator demanded communciation, to let investors in a company be aware of potentially price sensitive information.

Telling us they are currently trying to sell the bond, or they have gone back to the bond market, doesn't constitute "price sensitive news".

It might help us sleep better knowing the exact time they started the car and got to the airport, and how long they were at passport control...

But the truth is they don't need to tell us. They said they will seek to go back to the market when conditions improve... the only RNS we might see between now and the end of the month is one where they have failed to do so.

Thus, the old adage applies. No news, is good news.

Jonesrichard

Now now now... I was deliberate with my choice of words.

The price may reach £10 in the interim, but it won't stabilise there (because all shares move towards earnings and NPV over the long term).

They obtained a lot of it from original bore hole samples, and I also read they got a batch load from ICL, but I can't verify that.

Bigger brains will be along in 3...2....1

The best way to dampen that excitement (because as Buffett says, investing should be like watching paint dry)...

We are highly unlikely to reach a stable price of £1 per share (even if all goes well) for about 10 years.

Based on milestones and cash flows we may be at 50p in 5 years.

Have I made it boring enough :)

Actually John, if someone knows their large purchase will push up the price:
A) it makes subsequent buys more expensive
B) it can be seen as a form of ramping. And if they sell shortly after a huge rise (because of the temptation to bank profit) the fca will be over them like a rash for pump n dump

Plus, large buyers rarely want to signal their presence to the market, because it attract all sorts of unwanted attention.

Woolver

Great summary. I am still holding for a few of those reasons.

But it cannot be denied that the major papers have been right on occasion, and this debacle about offering warrants to shift the bonds is concerning (great for the holders of warrants mind).

With each passing day, we de risk the construction, but we also move a day closer to running out of cash.

Fingers crossed, it's going to be a bumpy September.

Jupiter sold 20m shares?

Source?

I have tried to approach this whole thing from a different angle.

1. I have spoken to the Poly4 research Team and they note that they are not going to slow down RnD in the short term, regardless of what is going on with the financials

2. I spoke to ADM (on facebook) asking if I could buy Poly4 from them. Weirdly, they said it hadn't finished their trials yet, but they would put me on a waiting list

Obviously, neither party commented on the current financial predicament, but surely ADM and Cibra and Wilmar will have done their homework.... surely?

RNSs are regularly created in advance, not on the morning of something happening. Things rarely just happen in the corporate world.

It is almost certainly the case that the BoD will know which way the bonds will fly (they did a road show like 18 months ago... and JPM will have done a pre-book build test).

The fact that the shorts haven't materially increased nor the share price rocketing, we can safely assume there are tight lips at the top.