Member Info for Cherokee101

Fed fund futures show that the market thinks Fed is 50bps too tight. So one more cut should do it.

http://www.polysulphate.com/news/polysulphate-sales-push-through-to-record-level/

Reas the bit about global demand Dog.

Of course it's a niche market. That's the gamble! Another reason the share price is where it is.

But it's decent odds! If you have a spare bob laying around go for it!

Where is the competition for Poly4?

Have you heard of Israel Chemicals?

They have leveraged our research and now ramping up to 1m tpa.

Not only that, they are stopping the production of all other potash related products...

And you know whats best? ICL hate us!! And they are trying to beat us in the arms race!

My banker mate said the same thing.

He said two things:
1. There are plenty of high yield bond funds seeking double digit yields, so whilst Trade Wars have taken off, there is no way you can be certain things will be any better in a month's time. Therefore this cannot be the reason

2. The reason company's do this, is because they usually have another plan. The fact they haven't called in the administrators or restructurers, means it could be a good plan...

The best response I got was talking to the Poly4 Team. They said they are continuing to invest in research, not had any forecast cuts to budget to do so, and they are confident in bringing the product to global customers...

Surely this is the key!

Whether we remain shareholders is a different story...

Some guy on FB said he works on site and had a manager meeting the other day to clear the nonsense. The site manager said they aren't running out of cash by September, they can afford to wait for the markets to settle and issue the bond.

I hope it's true.

Wwguk

The bond futures market is great, as you can use it to work out rate cut expectations from the market.

This cut was almost 100% baked in, at .50% hence the market threw their drinks down and stormed out.

Duracell,

I wouldn't focus on 0.20%, I would focus on the following - the lower the spread, the greater the sell off in equities. It is correlated.

A positive tweet from Trump could send the spread higher, which simply means people are dumping bonds and buying equities.

John, no problem.

The best way to think about bond market, is if the long end (10 years+) is yielding the same or less than short dated bonds, it is generally a bad omen. Because it means people are willing to pay up for rubbish yields in safer assets, which ultimately means a downturn is coming. Because, why else would you pay up for a rubbish yield?

But actually, many enonomists say the yield curve isn't a great indicator of recessions anymore, because the yields are "false"... i.e. they are artificially low at the long end because of QE (quantitative easing basically was central banks buying shed loads of govvie bonds, forcing their yields down... and forcing investors to kick start equities and the economy).

So the Fed are stuck with rates topping out at 2.50%, with inflation below target and low economic growth, a protectionist president and an economy that could falter, if rates are played incorrectly.

Duracell you want to follow the "yield curve".

John,

I know a few bits about macro.

The 10 year yield, minus the 2 year yield has gone lower, but not negative (that hasn't gone negatice since 2008).

The 10 year minus the 3month yield has been negative for a while, but unlike the 2 and 10, the 3m and 10 isn't indicative of a recession. It is a "fed indicator", because of how short of a maturity the short end is.

In laymans terms, it means the Fed is out of tightening runway... anymore tightening and the economy breaks.

You need a Bloomberg terminal to see it , or a chum in investor relations. I will ask my banker mate for an update.

Maybe, maybe not.

On another note, Simon Clarke MP just said he is all over this Sirius thing, but cant say more publically right now.

He commented on the british steel facebook forum.

KoH

Calm down on the conspiracies.

Given that Fraser has a nice manor house in Yorkshire, and contracts with 100 Yorkshire farmers as well as the hopes and dreams of thousands of locals resting on his shoulders... do you reaaaaally think he would jeapordise his life and his family's by f**king us all over?

I sincerely doubt it.

Hargreaves Lansdown still own 1.6bn shares ,(pi owned). So Pis are still the largest holders.

Material changes will have to notified by RNS, so obviously no material changes! The only solid data shows shorts down a further 1%.

I actually think this is a way to boot out PIs. Private investors are notorious for panicking out of stock and rarely have capital to fund stuff...

Next few weeks you will see percentage holding RNSs increase.

I spoke to investor relations and unless CF has been slipping them acid in their morning coffees, they don't seem perturbed by the RNS at all!!!!

What is going on at HQ?? As they insane? Or do they know something we don't...

If the project is bust as some say, why bother carrying on the build?

The build is key. If the build stops, that means we are out of money with no prospects (Fraser said that at the AGM... slow down or build cease = we are knackered.

Build is marching on....
Crop trials marching on...
Institutional holders (insiders such as Jupiter et al) haven't sold....
Am I missing something?

KOH

I would be gladly proven wrong in 2021. I have a fair wedge riding on this horse... she's tired, but she's got life left in her.

Scrimshaw, Fraser, Gina, Qataris, NSWF, JPM, Jupiter.......... those names.... they don't let ships sink......

Not only that but the German 30 year bond went negative for the first time ever.

We are in strange times. The bond market is telling you that we are in structural decline following the great ponzi scheme of QE, coupled with terrible demographics globally.

Squeaky bum time.