YKA a 99% owned subsidiary in China is one of the largest agri businesses in the country. So even if our China tops aren't of the highest quality, we still have exposure to China through Wilmar. Which is awesome.
The global trends are on our side, we just need the build to go steady and on budget.
RE: The way this share bounces off05 Jul 2019 21:31
15lives notes the "technical" reason for the low share price, but the fundamental reasons are many and complex. Ultimately, it is because of:
1. No cash flow, no profit 2. No mine 3. 5+ years from cash generation 4. Potential for loads of issues in construction 5. Thus potential for more dilution 6. Potential for competition to ramp up 7. Lack of visible end market pricing 8. Bonds might not sell... 9. The BoD could do with a shake up
The pros currently don't outweigh the cons because it is all about potential as opposed to reality... however, I take solace in the following: 1 . Construction is ahead of schedule (market hasn't really reacted to this) 2. ToPs are very high quality (on the whole) 3. I do rate CF highly 4. We are potentially a massively disruptive company, much like when Apple brought out the Iphone to the mobile market 5. If things go to plan then the discount to NPV is absolutely insane and we stand to make a fortune
If you have been studying shares for 10 years then you don't need to be looking for validation here.
A friend of mine is a trader, but he left a great job which he could go back to, and has a lot of money. He once said to me, you can quadruple your money between 8:30 and 4:29 and lose it all with in the last minute.
You need a good platform and a cheap way to deal to make it worth while, unless you have a lot of capital or leverage. Be careful and don't bet the house.
You can't value all companies on an EPS basis. It is meaningless for certain sectors... for example Technology. Amazon doesn't make any profit! Banks for instance are always valued on a book basis, because that's a truer insight into their potential revenue generation from loans.
A profitable mining company is valued on a combination of commodity future prices plus the business earnings potential (hence why they are called a geared play on the commodity).
So SXX will be a EPS "adjusted" for the average Poly4 price.
Any stock with a yield has been vastly inflated beyond belief. The hunt for income will surge on, Fed likely to cut as the next move...
Unilever is on like 23x earnings.... for a company barely growing its topline 3%.... that's horrific. Ok so the growth is "almost certain" but jeez... 23x??? It's not a innovative tech company. Pension funds dying for any sniff of income these days propping up the FTSE.... which btw looks like it is structural decline due to severe and chronic underinvestment... BATS, GSK , BT, MnS... all cut divis...
At that level the market is saying there won't ever be a mine, and it is all smoke and mirrors.
Unfortunately the BoD have historically made a dog's dinner of reassuring LTHs, so I don't expect any respite from the shorters.
Based on information out there, and reading between the lines, this is a share one must tuck under the pillow and forget about from a price perspective until about 2021. I for one, sleep better with that mentality today.
I will ignore the "all in" statement because it is insane to go all in on any stock.
Listen carefully : checking the share price every 5 minutes is meaningless, it isn't a true representation of company value. Only studying the fundamentals give you that. The rest is noise (unless you want to trade like a dervish.)