Member Info for Cherokee101

"The synic in me has wondered for some time if Boris has been keeping his powder dry on this in order to anounce his support at election time and grease the Tory wheels in the NE when it will have most impact on Tory popularity."

Bottom, you give our Leaders too much credit. They have already classed Thomas Cook in the same bucket as SXX.

Government support is dead. Long live the Capital markets instead.

KOH

Whilst what you have said, may have some truth to it. The reality is you don't know what is going on as much as Jones or AlanG profess their thoughts and prayers.

We are in the hands of the mining Gods.

Either CF et al have a plan and there may be a pot left to pi55 in for us, or it goes to the wall.

Until the fat lady sings (Gina in this case), it is all speculation.

"I just don't see from where that source of new funding will emerge" - Vyrnwy

Stop looking a the total figure and look at segregation of liabilities.

In reality, we need c£500m to complete the shaft - that is the only bit of the project the bond fund managers didn't like.

Once we raise £500m to complete the shaft, the bond markets are open again. So strat partner or equity raise for the hard bit.

What's more, is the current tunnel pace shows we could in theory bring poly4 closer to delivery than first expected, so revenues earlier... and along the way we could sell poly we come across (and salt) to generate a bit of cash.

Further to all this, there are genuine interests from major shareholders, least of all the Qataris (do not underestimate these guys to spend shed loads of money on venture capital mining projects).

"The world will survive without poly4".

Maybe, maybe not. But one thing is for sure, the biggest threat to our existence, is us. Our over production of humans to be precise. The demand on arable land is going to be tremendous. China by itself buy up nearly all of Brazil's soybeans... an incredible feat.

But OK the Chinese population will decline over the next 100 years... but Africa and India are goinf to sky rocket. And those stats are scary.

By 2050, the median projection is for Africa to double in size... and add an extra one billion people (the upper prediction is staggering... probably 4 billion extra people by century end).

So... population and food demand on a 50 year view = insatiable appetites.

So many extremes, one way then the other.

From AlanG the ever positive hoper... to the droves of naysayers who delcare default before Santa gets his mince pies.

What does history tell us? Two things no less. Venture capital is a torrid game and littered with bodies.

But also, and perhaps crucially, history, and equity markets for that matter, have aways favoured the optimist.

Alan

Thanks. The reason I asked is because I am interested in the comparison between the companies at their risky stages.

Presumably, you were punting on Dana to find oil? Which is incredibly high risk in the world of investment. I am asking why you held, what research did you do to make you hold on?

The reason becomes clear for SXX. What makes you "believe" we will be alright? I've lost a fair bit of money, but I am holding because it was always my high risk allocation in my portfolio. It was always **** or bust for me.

So why did you continue to hold Dana and why hold Sirius? Is there research behind your choices or gut feelings?

Thanks

AlanG

I've watched with awe and sometimes baited breath when you talk in absolutisms.

But I have a genuine question from a place of curisosity. Why were people telling you to sell Dana at 25p and why didn't you sell at 25p?

Was it due to a binary call on funding? Had all previous routes of funding failed? Or was it a different horse for a different course?

Cheers
Cherokee

"Chris Fraser sits on millions of pounds profit and benefits while he continues to ruin this company and the lives of shareholders"

How has CF ruined your life? Go and seek proper financial advice if that's your emotional state.

Investing shouldn't be emotional. It should be ruthless and mechanical.

"Surprised that the Rothschilds are not lurking in the back ground"

And they can stay lurking. Nat Rothschild made a right hash of Bumi.

"So we are set on the possibiliy this might be in limbo for 10 years then if it's simply de-listed."

Urm... did I say that? The project could incrementally de risk over 10 years whilst private and then gains could be realised.

I actually invested here 3 years ago, with the idea that I may not see material gains for at least 5 to 10 years. I put in a very small part of my portfolio that I reserve for capital growth/ venture capital projects and just let it run.

Sometimes these things work way before 10 years, sometimes, longer. But the point is, I didnt invest for a get rich quick gambling scheme ( I would have gone to a casino for that).

The only worry here today is that PIs are about to be screwed by a clever accounting scandal.

If you properly diversify you shouldn't ever sell your investments (unless the thesis becomes broken).

My horizon is multi decade. I could live until my 80's... so 10 years is nothing.

Yellow

The fear is that they do some clever accounting and take our shares through administration.

Sirius is a subsidiary of York Potash... Sirius could go under and York take the assets.

"Mind sharing your calculation for that, why you belive the value is greater than the price the market puts on it?" - devon

The TorPs , proven resource and NPV.

Those 3 factors alone warrant a share price of c£1 at full production in around 10 years time.

The market is incredibly short term and rarely looks past next quarter earnings (and god forbid an analyst calculates DCF beyond 3 years).

Devon

There are many ways to go private (Private equity buy in, management buyout, management buy in etc) all of them must be voted on.

They can't take us private without a vote, and they will consult with the large institutions first.

The fact that Fraser doesn't want pesky, whiney, risk taking amateurs (us) implies he will likely offer to buy us out. There is no way he would want 85k of us on the private register.

"If the Daily Mail article is true then my loss would have been nearly £270k today!" - mr Math

You are aware that if the BoD want to take us private, they must make shareholders an offer right? It might not be a very nice offer but they will have to.

Plus institutional investors very often sweep up shares to gain more voting power in these situations (saw it with Unilever), and try to force the vote their way.

Not only this, you can often get a dead cat bounce situation (the short sellers might be spooked out and therefore close their positions).

I think this is a lowball gamble to get rid of short sellers and retail investors... then let the shares trade hands to institutions for cheap.

Thanks bobster.

Who us your reliable source? A worker or investor?

There are a number of workers on the facebook investor group who post pictures from inside the operation.

However, one individual claimed there is a flood issue (part of the acquifier) and wilton has ground to a halt because of it.

Hopefully they can deal with it.

"There’s many more bigger fish with huge amounts invested and at stake like you say and they are not going to curl up in a ball and let this simply fail."

I can't remember who said this, but the Norweigans and Qataris wont have the same risk as us PIs... it will be a significantly smaller part of their portfolios (probably a fraction of a percent).

Jupiter is the anomaly, but Steve Davies has a terrible stock picking track record, worse than Neil Woodford.

Lovelyboy

That sounds nice. But there should be no room for emotion in investment. You calculate the risk you are willing to take for the potential return.

You are talking as though Sirius is a charity.

" In my mind there is no doubt the mine will be built and local jobs saved and local area will prosper." - Fred

As much as I would love that to happen, I now have my doubts about the construction too.