Member Info for casapinos

didn't work - thats the original everybody read it OK?!!!

another version translated a little better? https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO3011776002052018TJ1000/ Essence is the same tho' money is in place.

another version translated a little better? https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO3011776002052018TJ1000/ Essence is the same tho' money is in place.

Today's news from Nikkei. com (translated from Japanese) is that Sumitomo Mitsui and Mitsubishi UFJ banks will provide 3 trillion yen , about �20 billion(ie more or less the cash element of the offer), to Takeda to fund the Shire takeover , subject of course to all the usual caveats. It does look , though, as if the wheels are turning, and I expect to see the Shire SP rise as the prospects of completion improve. I will, however check out before the takeover and take profits in cash!!

latest news - Teesside mayor off to Thailand for holiday at taxpayers expense...........sorry off to Thailand to " meet with bankers and secure former SSI site ... intention to create 20000 jobs over 25 years "

Who wrote - check the figures before offering inaccurate "facts". From the latest tesco results, 11 april. Sales �51 -billion pre- tax profit �1.3 billion profit margin(PRE-TAX!) ~2.5% Discounters profit margins (privately held companies , with no need to publish results in UK - UNKNOWN

ADUK - you have misread my post. I was conflating two issues which have affected CA either or both of which might have led to the HUR sale. First , one of CA's top ten holdings De La Rue has just taken a 20% hit so the monthly figures of CA will not look good for a while (and the relative holdings of the rest of the top ten will rise) Second RB saw(and attempted to take) an opportunity to bail out Conviviality and grab a large chunk of that company on the cheap.To do so he needed cash promptly . Where better to take it from than one of his big winners? The point I was making (perhaps badly)is that either or both of these circumstances COULD have played a part in the decision to sell down HUR shares.

A little bit of context on CA sales of HUR . CA are embroiled in a couple of spats at the moment (RB is nothing if not blunt!)They hold De la rue whose fortunes have taken a severe turn for the worse 'cos they didn't get the passport job, and to quote RB "have made themselves a takeover target by the CEO's inept plan to challenge the decision " (now dropped) In addition my spies tell me that RB is spitting because he offered to bailout Conviviality[CVR](at great advantage to CA , of course) an offer which was turned down and led to administration . CA were willing to stump up ~�18 mill (at 5p per share!!!) to meet CVR's refinancing needs, so maybe RB had allocated some funds from selling down HUR to buy into CVR. If so, it may suggest no loss of faith in HUR , rather cash needed quickly for an opportunist bid elsewhere, who knows RB and CA may re buy HUR now that the CVR have imploded!

Two of those holding shorts in SXX are suffering from barbecued digits this morning,citadel and marshall wace both hold short positions in sainsbury's and will be scrambling to close out ASAP.Assuming that their shorts are part of a strategy that includes SXX CB's and those CB's are in profit at the mo. they might just choose to convert and sell a few to drum up cash . Worth watching.

Having read today's RNS it appears rushed and ill thought out. Some elements are implausible "We expect to lower prices by 10%" given the fixed/uncontrollable costs in supermarkets ie staffing, store operating costs like heating lighting etc, transport, taxation which are a large part of the cost of every item ,the assumption that "buying power" can lower costs by 10% is ludicrous. "There are no planned closures.....".yeah they haven't planned them yet but they will happen, either by the orders of the CMA or by sheer commonsense of taking out the overlap.(EG there are 25 Asda and 34 sainsbury's within ten miles of my home, they each have a superstore within 1 mile of me.) "EBITDA synergies.... of at least �500 million - a nice round number that arises out of detailed analysis or picked out of the air? They have been caught on the hop by the Bloomberg exposure and are scrambling to out a gloss on a desperate solution to their problems. This will run ......

The driver for the merger is Walmart, they have a huge problem on their hands with Amazon about to eat their lunch in the USA and their only defence is to focus, they are withdrawing from China and will progressively withdraw elsewhere in the world in order to seek to preserve their US position -they need to fund a major move into online delivery and they need the funds to be able to price compete with Amazon , so they cannot afford to carry on in the UK as a stand-alone. therefore they sell up and get a "free ride" by owning say 30% of the new combine , or , if the CMA rejects the deal or sets over-onerous conditions, they pull out of the UK. Either way the UK supermarket estate shrinks by ~10% , Tesco benefit whatever the outcome, the combined market share of the new entity will NOT be above 30% after disposals, in many areas local competition for TSCO will diminish . Short-term SP volatility will occur but longer term it is good news for TSCO , the opposition are running scared.I am a holder in some volume and comfortable with that.

As it happens i've just started selling a few- my logic is as i set out last july(23rd)- i cannot see a substantial rise beyond this . The reason is that the convi's are now in profit and there will be a temptation for some holders to sell.They know as we all do(?)that until Foil and perhaps several months after ,then big investors (or bidders )will wait.I said last july that the SP would drift between 30-40/45p for some time . I am selling(some) into this rise, because I suffer from "premature evacuation", in that I often sell too soon, but i find it hard to resist a substantial profit ,my average is ~27p and will hope to buy back at a 20% discount to today's price later in the year. feel free to criticise , or correct my assessment as you wish . i do still feel that HUR is a good long- term investment but a profit is a profit!

I don't like to offer personal criticism , so please accept this as observation , rather than character assassination re our new chairman. Read about Kenmare over the last few years - a financial disaster, an environmental disaster, a basket case. Songa offshore not exactly a success. Sandown energy consultants - Mr and Mrs Mctiernan and little else. First quantum so small as to be nearly invisible. This guy is not the "heavy hitter" we should have been looking for ,

Deeply underwhelming appointment, a guy who should be long-retired(he's older than me!!!) , long-time banker , experience of less than stellar oilco's(except maybe Tullow) not the sort of chairman a multi- billion pound company is looking for. I fear a negative market reaction.

Ijwt yeah sorry!!

Repost to clear up some persistent misconceptions: A summary of the stats for the recent bond conversion exercise Of the 1540 bonds outstanding 319 will be converted 1221 remain outstanding on 23 april 218 million new shares will be issued and added to the 4.4 billion currently in issue the number of shares in issue will rise by ~5% the "cost" of the exercise in additional shares(the premium and incentive shares) was ~10.5 million, over the initially planned rate SO SXX have issued shares worth �65 million in return for the cancellation of $63 million((�45mill)of debt and have saved $27 mill(�19 mill) in interest charges

Brentharg log in to shorttracker and choose the company you are interested in . see https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BLY2F708/

It's a bit disingenuous of SXX to suggest that the shorting associated with the CB's was holding back the SP and is a reason to offer to take them out. SXX and the hedgies who took the CB's both know that it is a standard part of the mechanism to generate additional profits, and as a means of at least marginally lowering the coupon.It may be more relevant that SXX have, or believe they can achieve, a lower cost of debt in ST2, whatever i am sure that we will know more (even if we have to interpret the data ) this week.

If we accept all that the co. says in its latest rns (and i broadly do) then significant upside- and still the hint of a predator lurking.....

SIPP many of the SXX cb's have already been converted and their SP is sitting above the level at which conversion(and resale)is profitable so no read across to HUR yet but if/when HUR's SP gets into the 40's expect to see a flurry of action.