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Zib Try reading my post more carefully . Note also that statista. com shows that 76%of UK households still own a landline capable of making and receiving calls(fallen from 83% in 2016) BUT "the majority of user use a mobile as their main means of making calls"

"https://www.statista.com/statistics/386778/share-of-calls-enabled-landlines-in-uk-hoseholds/

Then check BT accounts to see that "consumer" provides 45% of their revenue, or £2.5 bill in the latest quarter.
Then work out the likely consequences to BT of those stats continuing to fall over time.
Factor in that(IMV) BT(with or without apple) aren't going to be a major player in content provision in a battle with Comcast, or Amazon or maybe Netflix.
I stand by my view that BT(ex-openreach )is a dinosaur.
Disclosure: I hold BT and have for a year or so on the basis that pension problems will diminish as interest rates rise, the new CEO cannot be less able than the previous one, that they will give up "Quad play" and that divestments and/or streamlining will give a short to medium term bounce , at which point I will exit.

Here cos Don' t be daft - it's a tandem!!!

is according to city chatter, due to the possibility of BT selling off openreach, there is a view that openreach as a separate entity is worth a good deal more than its valuation within BT. Openreach constitutes about 20% of BT cost base but provides over 30% of profits (and rising). Difficult to say exactly what openreach might be worth as a spin-off but as BT's market cap is £22 bill fair to assume might be worth £8-10 bill or about £1 per share. If the rumours become fact or when an approach is announced I could see an SP of ~280p, at which point i would take my profits and run!!The rest of BT is a legacy telecom system with a dodgy sports franchise attached, Openreach is and will remain where the value is - it is the pipes on which the internet depends(at least until 5(or 6 or 7)G is rolled out.

Scotman
I'm currently on the Costa Tyneside, no flooding here! and so far as know none in my Spanish bolthole. Did you ever get to ride through the Sierra nevada and if not don't forget - it is truly spectacular!

regards

Myo - only one riposte and I won't get into a long dialogue BUT why is my fact-based analysis(my interpretation) "still speculation...." but your "it is OBVIOUS that it is not just PI driven..." a fairer reflection?
As ever you may have the last word.

At the risk of damaging my already tattered reputation for adding value here!!! Can I say that IMO the recent SP falls are most probably driven by PI abandonment rather than "insiders" responding to a leak. While day-to day share watching is not my thing , the volume as Myo points out, is brisk but not exceptional, in addition we know that there are few large scale II's invested who could drive the SP down by reducing/exiting their positions.I believe that it's in part an overall market drift, FTSE at a six month low, partly a realisation by those PI's invested but not committed, that there are no quick profits here and partly some like myself ,who have judged recent months a good time to be out until ST2 is resolved.

City chatter is that there is an oversupply of cardboard and new chinese factories opening, All similar co's are taking a hit (Mondi. Smurfit etc). If you believe in the long term growth of online selling and in SMDS management (as I do)then this is a buying opportunity, though beware, the fall might be prolonged . I will start gently adding at these levels and below with the expectation of recovery as SMDS results are shown to improve.

Scotman I'm sorry if you feel offended.You asked a question directly of me and I did my best to answer it.I may be wrong but the tone of your response seemed at best , ungrateful, at worst unpleasant. I strive not to get into keyboard spats and apologise if you think I was patronising or"making you look dumb".
I assumed that you were genuinely seeking to understand something about which I knew a little and you knew less.I therefore find it hard to understand why you asked the question when you had "already worked out the answer for yourself".I see from your history that you appear to have posted many thousand of times , I must confess that I haven't read them all and therefore have no way of ascertaining the depth/breadth of your knowledge.
Perhaps the problem is that irony(if that was your intention) doesn't really work in print .
I have stated my familiarity with some "city" Practises to distinguish from the tide of ill-informed and just plain wrong information/advice with which this board is peppered.

I have said before and will repeat, that my primary motivation for posting here is to help the conversation to be based on fact , or at least, informed speculation.I realise that offering a cautious or negative slant on a company in which many have staked a considerable amount of their cash is never going to win me a popularity contest but that is not my aim.
If my explanation hasn't convinced you that CB holders "gain more from shorting the stock than joe Soap" I politely suggest that you either re-read it or refer to a clearer explanation from elsewhere.The fact that it is a strategy widely adopted by some very clever people responsible for investing many millions, suggests that it is is deemed effective, they may all be wrong but I am inclined to think not.
To repeat, I have no wish to offend you or anyone else, and can only repeat my apology , in that I appear , inadvertently to have done so.

Have a good day!

Rodders

Well done! It takes courage to apologise in (sort of )public Lets hope that next year you are a millionaire...... I won't begrudge you a penny!

Good luck to you

Hi Joshua if your comment was directed at me , i have held BHP for many years and know this:
BLT

recent figs

market cap £93.97 bill(today)

net debt $15.4 bill (as at last half year )

Sirius
market cap £1.25 bill(today)

likely debt $3.5bill(at ST2 finance completion)

Not quite the same.

Avo At any price the SP can go down as well as up. Bear in mind that even though 25p seems a low figure it represents a market cap. of £1.25 billion - many would say that's still too much for a company with years to go before profits exceed debt repayments and with plenty of hurdles to overcome.II's will not close the shorts because they are risk averse, as I said in reply to Super..short positions PROTECT against an SP fall, their upside is protected by bond holdings which appreciate as the SP rises . It is a balanced, loss-proof position.All SXX holders, and I know there are thousands, should really make the effort to understand not just this company but the world of finance generally.

Superleggera : Bear in mind that most (probably all?) SXX shorters also have CB 's at a discounted conversion price so any potential loss is at least offset by a compensating gain.

Scotman Had a bad day?
You asked me to explain something - I did my best to do so for the benefit of you and other SXX holders. Whether you like it or not there are many elements of the SXX story outside of our control.I may be a "self claimed market expert ....." but for all you know I may actually be a market expert!!!

If you are interested, the RNS's tell you how many bonds convert and if you really think that bond holders gain no more than "Joe Soap " you are being naive in the extreme. As an investor in SXX you should seek to be aware of all the factors affecting your investment,the more knowledge you have the safer your money is.The "CB stuff" might be boring... but it has a direct impact on your investment however large or small it is.No company's prospects are entirely defined by the project - they rely on investment funding ,the willingness of others to risk their cash in support of a vision, the view of the market , macro economics...... If you really need your investment data dressed up and made interesting you might be better ignoring all of it and trusting to your own judgement. I prefer to gather as much data as possible and be as well informed as i can be .. . As a final word may I say that generally finance is more important than any other aspect of company performance... look at those stock market darlings that fall by the wayside, the idea is fine, the prospects are good but as in life generally without the cash life is hard.

Sorry if I offend, my objective with all my posts is to help, I post relatively infrequently and generally where I feel I can contribute something positive and occasionally to point out misconception or misunderstanding which is , sadly far more prevalent than I would wish.

Yasi My figure of 2 bill was a round number as the basis for a rough calculation and I have ignored the bonds already converted,BUT AIUI until they are converted the bonds are effectively debt and so would not be part of the market cap , they would however be part of HUR 's enterprise value(EV) which is generally taken as MC+debt.
On conversion(ignoring prior conversions) 400 mill new shares are issued, no cash changes hands ,HUR's debt reduces by $220mill but the market cap , excepting any market reaction,is unchanged. So I think my rough figures stand up . However i will think about it further and post if I change my mind!

MYO My last offering on this thread as I can clearly not convince you - Converting now is to lock in a very small profit , when until recently, much larger capital gains were available,(when the SP was 38p in august there were no bond redemptions) rather than run a highly profitable loan with the opportunity to add value by shorting and a reasonably assured return of funds in few years time.It seems to me to be a clear and rational choice .
Until the SP rises to >40p I fail to grasp where the " opportunity" you see for holders arises.....

As is my habit i leave any last words to you ..

Myo true there are always opportunities to profit from sharp SP moves (aside I sold all my position here in early August and will begin to buy back again sub 20 if it happens or post ST2)
The difference with the bondholders is a GUARANTEED profit whatever happens to the SP - that's why the guys who run these positions earn millions pa (and incidentally have relatively low salaries,by city standards, are paid in stock on arrangements that obviate taxes!!)

Rodders WADR iIthink you are missing several points.

First, everybody invested in knows (or should know )about the existing CB's, so the impact of conversion is factored in to the market price.
Second the CB's represent about 400 mill shares with a conversion price of 52 cents which was a PREMIUM to the price of the concurrent placing, so the CB holders presumably were willing to lend (at reasonable coupon for an explorer) in the anticipation of a SP rise, that belief has been vindicated.

Third , as you say HUR can choose to redeem the bonds in cash or with shares , the company no doubt, expects to have the cash from revenues to do the former. Failing that they would be obliged to issue shares and that , I suspect both parties expect to be at a time when the SP is markedly higher than now BUT that's the price the bondholders extracted for lending the company money . That not uncommon, among shares I follow (but am not necessarily invested in) it includes, SXX, Xero, tilray and funding circle .
Lets say the HUR SP is £1 in 2022 and there are still 2 bill shares in issue, market cap £2bill additional dilutive share issue of 400 mill shares new SP 83p.

So not Armaggedon.....I think your concerns are a tad overdone

Disclosure i follow HUR have been invested am not currently.see recent posts

Hi Myo - for someone who did maths, further maths and additional maths at "A" level I am pretty embarrassed!!!(though that was a very long time ago)
I dashed the example off in response to Scotmans request and didn't check the arithmetic.
To address your other comments:
Generally the Borrow is for up to three months and sometime during that period the CB holder will sell and return. then, depending on circs they will attempt to repeat the trick every quarter(just maybe 'cos thats the normal reporting period for hedge funds). It's a no lose situation because of course , if the SP does begin to rise the short is loss-making but compensated for by the notional rise in the "book value" of the bond. As and when the SP gets above the conversion price the bonds notional value will increase quite sharply.(I can't remember whether it was SXX or HUR (who have a similar situation)who were required to set up a market (in Jersey?) so that bond holders could trade the bonds.

The net effect though is that a better mathematician than I(and today's evidence suggests there are many!!) can create a situation where any outcome in regard to SP movement is profitable to bondholders, that's why their use is increasing , and to be fair, it allows companies to borrow at below market interest rates.Those on this forum who bemoan the "shorts" should recognise that the strategy can be mutually beneficial.

Hi Scotman

In simple terms the CB holders will "borrow " shares from a broker/investment bank(almost certainly brokers in SXX case)and pay maybe 2-3% pa for the privilege.
They may choose to borrow the number of shares represented by their bonds(or more or less dependent on their view)- but to keep it simple we'll assume the same number.

Let's say they did this for one bond

So bond represents a loan to SXX of $200k(roughly 600k shares IIRC?)

SP at the time of the borrow (2 months ago?) 35p, so borrow 600k shares and:
sell those 600k in the market for ~£2.1mill
Buy the same number back today @26p = £1.56mill and return to lender, loan over.
Pay borrowing costs 3%pa for 2 months = 0.5% (of £2.1mill) = 10.5k

Profit is ( £2.1 m-1.56m) -10.5k = 529.5k and remember thats per single CB
So some CB holders may have made over half a mill per bond in two months and they also have one quarter of 8.5% coupon to come ie 2.125% of $200k
Now not every quarter is going to see a 25%+SP fall but nonetheless its a lucrative offset to the diminished "book value "of the bond.
Apologies for approximation and any math. errors but I hope it conveys a flavour of the logic behind shorting

Myo I am sorry but I didn't understand all of your post but I would suggest there is NO good reason for bondholders to convert now or in the near future.As a reminder, the bonds have a maturity date of 28/11/23 and SXX are bound to pay a coupon of 8.5% quarterly until that date(your comment about "the guaranteed coupon ....is puzzling -it is true that the escrow period was 2 years but are you really suggesting that SXX will not/ cannot pay??)
Despite recent interest rate rises (and the probability that rates will rise further in the future) that coupon is still a useful revenue stream.As discussed several times most of the CB holders run a parallel short strategy which at the moment is paying handsomely.There is therefore likely to be little appetite on their part to halt this particular gravy train.
The point at which SSX can recall the CB's starts on 19/12/18 ie 10 weeks away BUT the condition for that call is "that the call value of the shares underlying the bond shall have been at least $350k..." That in effect means " if the SP is ~40p" (depending on £:$ exchange rates ) there is therefore very little likelihood of that condition pertaining unless the ST2 funding situation is resolved quickly and on extremely favourable terms- if you have read any of my recent posts you will know that I (and much more importantly the market) doubt that that will happen.
I think therefore that all holders should assume that SXX are on the hook for 8.5% to the bondholders for some time yet. The only circumstance I can conceive of in which that will not be the case would be in a major restructuring of the CB's , as part of a second CB issue programme to broadly the same group of lenders within the ST2 funding package.