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MYO it was an "apocryphal story...........

Chris, there is no need for me to comment on SXX progress that is widely reported here. I offer an alternative view of the risks as balance. I'll happily turn up here to review my input post the ST2 funding and beyond, and if I'm proved wrong will accept that.

AlanG
in response to your 22.01 post I offer an apocryphal story.

A few of us were sitting in the pub the other day and after a drink or two the subject got round to cars,several of the guys told odd tales of good cars, not so good etc One however then proceeded to regale us with the exceptional quality of his car , it was the best, most economical, comfortable vehicle, excellent performance , mechanically sound ,reliable ,good load carrying , etc etc . having told us the make and model ,one of us asked "OK so which other cars have you owned/ driven?....."

the reply came

"Oh I've never owned any other car, in fact until I got this one I couldn't even drive........"

I am not seeking to offend, merely to alert you and others of the nature of your single minded approach.

There is no informed answer to the question posed in the OP.
Retrospective data helps explain why the SP has been falling but not whether it will continue, for that i'm afraid the only input is informed guesswork!There are some city types whose investment style is "brave and crazy"ie Crispin Odey, Guy Hands, Neil Woodford (all of whom are struggling to repeat past success!), but mostly they are coolly analytical and IMV their analysis (and mine)of HUR at the moment is as follows:
Currently the risk is heavily skewed to the downside, any one of a number of things can go wrong, mechanical failure, human error, weather, etc etc and for the time being nothing unexpected can go right (save maybe a T/O bid) therefore investment risk is unbalanced to the downside and will remain so until after AM is on station WOS, is hooked up and is pumping, only then do the upside risks start to outweigh or at least balance the downside.
Now as the markets are supposed to anticipate the future there is a possibility that a SP rise will precede the announcements of FOIL and Its flow rates but who knows. On a personal level I will invest here again (unless something catastrophic happens)and if the SP shows a steady climb then that may be the moment , otherwise my cash can sit safe elsewhere(actually in undated fixed interest) until sometime between successful hook up and FOIL.

Not large jessel, just sharp!

Dive C see my recent posts. CB arbitrage shorts could close because :

they are substantially in profit and a "santa rally " may be in the offing or they feel the SP fall is now overdone.
their "borrow" is due , many borrows for shorts operate on a 90 day timescale, so they are due to return the shares.(they may well of course reborrow and reshort but not necessarily immediately)
It is nearing the end of the year and they are massaging the books to improve next spring's bonus round
they are expecting a positive news flow which affects either market sentiment or HUR specifically.
or any other reason!!

Cranleigh -- do the sums .Anyone holding since 38p has lost ~ 40% of their investment.
I doubt that any placing will see the SP fall more than a further 40% ie down to ~14p

Iwant The plain fact is that anyone taking an equity stake in a company loaded with debt is at risk of total loss, because the equity ranks below debt in the capital hierarchy should the company go broke. To accept that risk they want to acquire the equity at the lowest possible price. A few months ago the price of equity was 38p per share , it is now 23 p per share (less for them as they will certainly demand a discount to the market price)Therefore potential equity investors will now be more minded to acquire a stake as the risk has fallen .The fact that the market cap has fallen is bad news for all holders but good news for all potential investors.

GK IMV an equity placing with a number of well-funded institutional investors(whether in the Agri business or not) would be (and has been stated by management to be) highly desirable . It would probably reduce the SP volatility, it would create a core of investors with deep pockets to add cash if/when needed , it would give market validation to the project..... it is almost essential to get the project to implementation.
I also have no expectation that anything I say here will affect the SP!!,the price if or when i buy is , sadly, independent of my view!

Cranleigh Given the precipitous fall in the SP of late , my perception is that the damage is almost all done. At the present MC and SP a major dilution of say ,3 billion shares at 18p (cf 4 bill in issue at 23p) has less impact on existing holders than would have been the case with a higher SP.
I am a non holder currently but have said frequently that I wish holders no harm , and obviously, I see a prospective profit for myself and all of us. The hypothetical proposal above is IMV the best model and if the board can find a willing Institution or two (based of course, on the successful resolution of the ST2 debt element) I am sure that it would be the basis for successful project completion.
My ownership of shares or not has no relevance to the level of my analysis - I give my holdings current or prospective the same degree of examination.

LITC I have absolutely no problem with that .
I also think that an equity-based solution to providing the remaining funding is far better in the long term than any of the other schemes which have been bandied about here. Subordinated debt,Royalty share, Discounted supply arrangements etc etc would be a drag on the SP for a considerable time, let's get the pain over early and completely.A fully underwritten placing even at a substantial discount to the present SP would cause short-term pain for holders but is of little real consequence in the medium to longer term.
FWIW I reckon that equity at a 25-35% discount to fund $500 mill , driving the SP down to 15 -18p would create some anguish but might see the SP double from that in a year or two, that may not be what most on here want to hear, but if they are as comfortable with a long-term hold as most suggest then the short-term pain, long-term gain might be in place.
I would also wish you a merry xmas but I don't stop for my hols 'till Xmas eve!

LITC absolutely true that EV is higher with debt, equally true that it is NOT an advantage to be loaded up with debt when seeking further funding ,especially equity funding .Read about capital hierarchy , debt structures.

LITC I am sure you understand that enterprise value is equity +debt. BUT it only has real relevance in a takeover situation where the acquirer accepts responsibility for the debt as well as buying the equity.It has no benefit , in fact it is a drawback, in relation to further funding by whatever means , even if the debt has an IPA backing , the liability still lies with the company. If you want to consider the implications further read about some of Mike Ashley's recent activities !

I posted a comment on the SXX board about Och Ziff who appear to be closing out a series of profitable shorts on SXX, HUR, KIER and Inmarsat to fund the Xmas party ! Maybe just standard close of profitable positions , or maybe expecting a "santa rally"

The reduction in shorts is all down to Och Ziff , and is their 6th reduction in about 7 weeks , from 1.77% to 1.04% (ie they have bought back and returned about 28 million shares or £7mill)
They are CB holders and the guy running the strategy is Ghassan Ayoub with the aid of "proprietary software". Their short positions have existed since mar 2017 and have ranged from 0.5% to to a max of 1.77%.Their CB's aren't going to be redeemed at or soon after the dec 19th(first possible date in the prospectus)and they'd be very unlikely to convert at this price!.

They also hold short positions in Inmarsat, Kier and Hurricane all of which will be showing a profit and in most of which they are reducing exposure

SO either
They are cashing in before year end with some good figures for the annual bonus and locking in profits on several shorts in case of a "Santa rally"
They have alternative more promising positions they want to enter
or they expect the HUR SP to rally on news

Or something else I haven't thought of !

Just picked up a ship-to shore Urgent call to Roy's Fish and chips, Line wall rd Gib. for 15 lots Cod and chips and a bottle of tomato ketchup from the AM!!

HI Myo AS I often say I don't like to get into "you said I said ..." arguments so as ever this will be my last personal rebuttal on this thread ., the field will then be yours

On 2 july (when the SP was 33p) I called into question the slowdown in the signing of Torps, illustrating that the size and frequency of them had fallen-the post is still there for anyone who wants to check. I said that it was my first real concern about progress and that I would sell down some of my holding.
Since that date two major Chinese torps have been signed which at face value achieve SXX minimum objectives, though IMV some reasonable scepticism has been expressed in "The Mccrum papers" and elsewhere about the ability of the partners to achieve their aims and about their scale . I think it reasonable to say that they are orders of magnitude less sound than most of the other torp partners . I believe the reservations I expressed then were valid (and indeed the market and commentariat seem to agree)
So , no I don't think I was wrong, As a basis for my investing decisions my doubts presaged new torps where the quality rather than the quantity were a cause for concern and market response vindicated my decision..
I further flagged up , in early August, (SP 38p)my increasing concerns about the wider likelihood of bad news for investors here arising from the drift in ST2 financing and nothing we have seen since (including today's RNS) reassures me that the matter will be resolved in a fashion that supports the SP.

I repeat that my investing style is one of sensible caution and at the moment I am firmly convinced(for all the reasons I have offered over recent months) that the risks(in financial terms) lie heavily to the downside. I am also happy to restate my hope that those significantly invested here have good news to deal with in the first quarter of next year. If the optimists are correct and the SP reaches £1+ in a year or two, I expect to have plenty of time to climb aboard before then.

Myo I think that the key is the word targetting,as DGR says an expectation carries a higher degree of probability than targetting.
The company is accepting that matters are not entirely within its control in two very fundamental areas , the first is the actual sum required to be available for the build including contingency (and by implication saying that the recently identified $400-600 mill may not be enough to satisfy the banks)and that the timescales for ST2 are slipping and are also outwith the company's control.
However uncomfortable this may be for the unremitting optimists here, there is evidence for those who are prepared to see it, that a critical phase is upon SXX and they are NOT masters of their own destiny.

It pays to read RNS's very carefully ,the semantics are critical .Two examples pop out of today's RNS

TODAY "Final lender commitment letters are expected in December 2018 and January 2019.."
27 sep quarterly report "in the fourth quarter ...."

Today "company is "targetting ...."financial close in Q! 2019..."
27 sep "financial close is expected to take place in Q1 2019..."

And finally, "The company and its lenders will assess the required capital contingency.... "ie the current figures are not a done deal.
It might seem pedantic BUT these are not-so subtle indicators of the problems yet to be resolved . The shape and consequences of ST2 are still up for grabs and still put a brake on the SP

My original post was prompted by today's CA NAV RNS which quotes the percentage of the investee held down from 5% to 4.8% this month.HUR have ~2 bill shares in issue 0.2% of which equals 4 mill , this months vol is ~200 mill therefore although they are a seller , little impact on the SP, ergo other factors at play . Same argument with shorters they are at best a marginal influence on SP

Cornhole , can I refer you to your post of 19 sep 2016 !!!