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I'd be very surprised if putting this this sort of identifiable information in the public domain was ever legal, I' be stunned if it is now legal since the GDPR legislation last year. I'd be thoroughly pi**ed off if my transactions were known to anyone other than appropriate authorities eg my bank,my broker, the registrar and the taxman.

HI FLBW I suggest you ask to have your post taken down as that is confidential information.| dont know where you got it from but you shouldn't have published.It would be a good idea to contact the site administrators and have it withdrawn.

Why?

The question can be tackled from another direction, eg if we accept the only verifiable evidence, ie that no more than 25% of shares are held by Institutions(see morningstar, FT and others) then that means that ~3 billion shares are in private hands.
Assuming that very few PI's hold more than a few million(say 10 mill) and that an average holding is 1 million, there are 3000 PI holders, if the average holding is 100,000, then 30.000 PI's, an average holding of 50k means 60,000 PIs, if the average is 20k (worth about £5k at the mo.) the number of holders becomes 150,000.

So the range of PI holders might be , I suggest, somewhere between 30-150k- Is an estimate of something a little under 100k about right??
Pls check arithmetic . I'm quite busy today and as has been pointed out my A-level maths was a while ago!!

Potkettle You could try poly4 applied to the scalp every evening for a few weeks!!!. you never know you might identify a new market.......

"The next bit is purely hypothetical as an example............"
Specifically inserted to illustrate that it was "Merely an example........!!"

Is it really that complicated or is the flurry of response , yet again none of which challenged the basic arithmetic of the point I was trying(obviously vainly) to make. that after CB conversions and BEFORE a possible placing this company will have billions of shares in issue, to suggest that each share will soon be worth £1 or more is to fail to grasp the underlying significance of the improbable implication that carries as to market cap .

Any response will be read but may not be answered for a while or at all unless they challenge the basic premise of my posts.

GK You are conflating my today's post(with a generous assumption of the SP),creating an example of the sort of shares in issue volume which would arise from a theoretical placing to fund the £400mill. with a previous post setting out the likely SP OUTCOME of such a placing.
I used 25p to avoid the usual allegations of "deramping"( a term which i suggest has almost no real-world relevance)and to simplify the maths , ie 4 shares to the pound.
A placing as described at a theoretical price of 25p will not happen ,and perhaps I should have been my more cautious self and chosen a more realistic value in the mid-teens. I was endeavouring to illustrate specifically the effects of a placing solely on the shares in issue(and hence the market cap,.) with no suggestion as to the resulting SP BUT clearly the SP would fall sharply.
As you might guess i have not changed my view that the balance of risk here remains to the downside until ST2 is resolved.I have no doubt you can replace my 25p in the original calc with a more realistic sub 20p number to get an even larger value for shares in issue!

Sorry folks absolutely true. Need to be more careful with my terminology. Cranleighs explanation is the accurate one..

Cranleigh I didn't suggest that they are holding shares in treasury.

Scotman The Option scheme reference was "A joke", you can't still have a sore head from Hogmanay can you??

Hi Scotman , we know that as and when all the CB's convert SXX will have around 6 billion shares in issue, my guess would be that CB holders will convert and sell more or less immediately- though obviously knowing that heavy selling will drive the SP down. So, somewhere in the medium term future, the CB holders will have divested, the market will have digested the additional shares and SXX will have a market cap of 6 bill x the SP.That is the basis on which any placing/open offer will be designed .
The next bit is purely hypothetical as an example!!
Say, SXX want to raise the additional $400mill through a placing,and the SP is 25p, they COULD offer 1.6 bill additional shares underwritten (probably by the same banks that are lending as part of ST2)to selected II's. That would leave SXX with the cash needed, and 7.6 bill shares in issue.
Anyone wanting to estimate(guess) the SP in the future needs to recognise that at, say £1, they are predicating a company worth £7.6 billion on the market- ie among the top 40/50 companies in the UK

HI DGR, not suggesting that the data is new , merely summarising that SXX now hold in treasury almost enough shares to meet all OS CB conversions . The interesting news will be the NEXT time they RNS an addition to the share base, which may/will presage an additional dilution - or a very generous share option scheme for management!!

By my rough calc there are still about 0.9 bill shares equiv. held as CB's (original no 1.3 billion, converted to date 416 mill) so the RNS reflects the fact that almost all of the outstanding CB's are available to convert as a result of the RNS.Thus full conversion in the near term (although unlikely 'cos the Conversion price of $0.30 leaves only a couple of pence profit) would make shares in issue of ~6 bill . that is the basis for any further dilution in ST2.

HI Nigwit problem solved!! I've found one ---I looked in the mirror and there he was , just staring at me with a super-intelligent smile.
Hope you and everyone enjoyed your xmas !

Markets all over the world are now essentially driven by the "bots"ie algorithmic trading engines which all follow each other . That means that large swings in indices will become more common, in addition the bots are the only traders at work at the mo. so no contrarians to start a countercyclical movement .The answer is to ignore the market until the first full week of the new year . Incidentally it means that it is now easier than ever to trade the markets as one sensible human is worth more than any number of robotic traders all with the same inbuilt assumptions. All I need now is to find one sensible human , needles to say I've looked here with no success!!!(you all know i'm joking don't you ?)

GLA

i was accused on this board a few days ago of a lack of understanding of grammar , to refute that allegation and to hopefully add to the xmas spirit I offer a couple of topical jokes.

Friend of mine works at the Gov intelligence agency GCHQ , a colleague was recently caught in possession of pornographic material when a colleague opened a file marked TOP SECRET- ORIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE.

Q What does a linguist call Santa's little helpers
A Subordinate clauses.

Merry xmas all!!

Avo I am fully aware of the fall in SP since August as it was on the 6th of that month i first set out my concerns and posted my intention to sell.In fact the additional funding was first announced in an RNS on 6 sept by which time the SP had already fallen sharply.While there is little doubt that the additional cash has been seen as an issue,and is highly likely to affect the SP further, I think it also true that the counterparties to the latest torps are seen as less robust than others and that has also had an effect on the SP drift.(viz the FT articles)
No one can know why SP's follow the pattern they do but using all the available evidence is the best guide to the future. As everyone who cares to, knows my position , i am happy to accept others manage their investments differently and wish all of them and you a happy xmas, and particularly, a prosperous new year!!

MR DT I suggest that posting firmly held and fact-based views is not deramping and I am certain that my posts will have no material effect on the SP.I have said before that I have no concerns about buying at a higher price when material doubts have been allayed and attendant risk is lowered , that to me is sensible investment strategy.

Hi scotman I did read the rest of the thread when I got home, but there was little more,and that only to offer me lessons in English grammar, none of it addressed, let alone questioned my simple arithmetic estimate of the likely effects of a placing to fund the "extra" £400 mill needed.(FWIW I still think a mix of funding arrangements will be implemented but believe the effects will be broadly similar)
I therefore assumed that my premise that the extra funding will drive down the SP is (grudgingly) accepted and saws no reason to support my argument further, but I assume that LTH's are willing to ride that out in the expectation that sometime well down the line the SP will be higher than it is now.

Hi OR In questioning after the formal presentation Ash made the point that the longest (both in distance and duration ) tunnel job was the one they had least concerns over, ie as and when they reach appropriate depth in vertical terms the time of greatest(perceived) risk is over.

As a reminder Ash. the SXX geologist who gave the talk at the newcastle mining insti. a few weeks ago suggested that the varying strata encountered while digging vertically are expected to be more of a risk than the horizontal tunnels which are in redcar mudstone? for all of their length.