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A pastiche of early Victorian poetry from Joe bass. following iambic pentameter, courtesy of Albi- this board offers a wider education than most schools!

A pastiche of early Victorian poetry from Joe bass. following iambic pentameter, courtesy of Albi- this board offers a wider education than most schools!

ADUK full disclosure , i was planning my usual lengthy ish post, sitting in tracksuit bottoms and a baggy jumper when I got a text to say "see you in half an hour"at a reasonably smart hotel a couple of miles away. realising a full reply a shower and change and ten minute drive couldn't all be fitted into 30 mins i hit post and fled for the shower!!
You are right I don't think HUR have ever offered an explanation for the creation of the separate company structures and it is a point of interest. I too won't be at the AGM but would welcome an attendee raising it - any volunteers?

Two apologies , first to ADUK for my somewhat curt response late this am when I suddenly realised i was about to be late for a lunch appointment and second for missing much of the debate i had contributed to.
I think IJWT 's 11.50 post exactly reflects my view.
Dive centres 11.54 is interesting , the CB holders could convert and collect if they had not already done so,or perhaps someone with an actuarial background could resolve satisfactorily, or HUR could use some of the cash to offer repayment terms which would "sweep up " all outstanding CB's .
IJWT 11.57 It is true that the value of the asset will probably rise as oil flows and FB in general is underpinned. By how much and when is difficult to say. It is also true that every drilling success and production success means that the as yet undrilled assets should be revalued upwards.
ADUK 12.06 You are right there are a myriad of ways in which HUR could "monetise" their assets , My example was driven by the interesting and as yet unexplained process of creating a number of holding companies under the HUR umbrella which seems to imply a the possibility of piecemeal disposal.
Lady sonia 12.07 Yeah I have no quarrel with Edison's view that the Lancaster EPS might be worth 34.7p of a 48p share price , it fits happily with my "almost all" and gives the rest of the assets(13.3p)enormous room to grow!
Bloobird/IJWT Amazon is the exception that has broken every rule(says he who bought a few(sadly only a few) at $ 75 nearly ten years ago!but happily sold at $2000 last year.

Sorry to have to disagree quite firmly ADUK but the underlying principle behind the stock market valuation of almost all companies is "the estimated value of the flow of future dividends....".

Hi wulbert it's easier to opine on general principles than to put numbers on it , BUt FWIW here are some background thoughts.
I said a while ago(20 nov 18) that I thought that almost of the current SP is based upon the five year value of the Lancaster field , with almost nothing in there for all of HUR's other prospects. So by implication, if HUR were for example, to prove up Lancaster by oil flowing at the predicted rates for say 6 months, then market it as a producing field with 5-10 year life producing 60 mill bbls (I think that's right haven't checked)it is worth something near the entire MC of HUR (ie £900 m) or the current SP ie 48p per share.
In theory therefore HUR could sell the Lancaster field and pay back the current SP as a special divi! In practise though it is more likely that the sale price for Lancaster would be £900 minus say 20-30% ie~£600 mill and the net return to shareholders a further 10-20% below that so that HUR could retain a healthy cash balance to fund further explo.
On that basis (and remember this is analysis based on estimate based on supposition) a special divi might be around half the current SP per share.
As Rev andy points out though , the Sp would be underpinned by one success and perhaps more after further drilling success.

Scotman I've just recc'd your 8.47 post!!!

You may be right Rev but is suspect only after HUR have performed the trick two or three times.

I think those expecting big rewards here should expect to take their cash in installments.A while ago Hur set up an hierarchy of companies under their broad umbrella. There was some discussion as to why and my suggestion then , repeated now is this.
DrT and his board see HUR as primarily an explorer, finding oil and proving it up. Of necessity ,part of that proving will be to produce, so they will engage others to run production under the HUR flag but keeping the core company small and tight.Producing wells on proven fields will be sold off to willing bidders, the company will collect a chunky cheque, much of which they will dispense to shareholders, including themselves. The SP will rise in anticipation of a special dividend and fall back, when it is paid and as the value of proven assets and cash in the bank falls.They will save enough cash to move across their portfolio of prospects , drilling proving and disposing. My hope is for a return of cash to shareholder ,possibly amounting to £££'s but a SP maybe never reaching those levels.The cynic in me suggests that the value and timing of such dividends will owe much to the tax position of the primary recipients!

John 2015 if you act quickly you can pay contributions(class 3?) for your missing years at the rate they would have been. From April you can still buy the missing years but at todays , higher, prices.If you do the sums you will see it is about the best investment you can make. From memory each year cost £700-800 BUT earns £2-3 PER WEEK for life. Check it out.

Could it be that they just wanted to check whether the buoy was still there???!!!

Slurms thanks at least for the civility of your post.
I am not sure that adding to "counterparty quality"and "higher quality balance sheets" as stated by CF is necessary for ST2 but it is interesting that he felt necessary to include it in his prepared statement , I am sure he was not primarily addressing PI's so who?
I don't think its a criticism of CF rather an indication that some of the counterparties do not have the "heft" that the lenders would like.
The second point about pursuing deals in already torp'ed areas is I think a reasonable assessment of CF 's phrase"enhances credit confidence".To improve the average it is necessary to have ADDITIONAL higher CC torps (though he said that was "not required") or to REPLACE the lower CC deals with higher ones.
You are correct that it is my analysis of the implication of his phrasing

MYo last comment . You must be close to Alan Shearer as you persistently play the man not the ball.Should you doubt that I have manuscript notes I am quite happy to copy and email them to you, they run to 3.5 pages of A4 .I also have the Conf call downloaded but you don't need that . I will wait (I suspect in vain) for a response about the substance of my recent posts.

Sheps I have posted off and on on this board for some time, not "weeks ago" , in fact last august I set out that I intended to sell and the reasons why.
I bought on the day of the successful planning meeting having established the position of most of the members , when I knew a majority in favour was assured, and subsequently sold , I bought back again early last year and sold in early august.
So far as posting history goes you can check that out. I know this share well and have profited from that knowledge. I see absolutely no reason to be ashamed of that.I am equally confident of my current judgement.If you believe my last post is "made up fantasy" I suggest you spend this afternoon doing some research, google "Trade credit insurance" and read at least some of the links.

Slurms absolutely true the quotes should start one word later, I was drawing( erroneously) from my manuscript notes . . What i actually scribbled was "add to counterparty quality".Does it alter in any way the substance of my post - I think not.
If slippery is to examine the facts , relate them to personal knowledge and draw reasonably argued conclusions then guilty as charged. You are welcome to dissect my argument on a more comprehensive level or come up with another interpretation of the data.

HI myo, after your comment about inability /lack of understanding, here's another piece of the jigsaw for you to dissect.
In his prepared comments CF mentioned (at roughly 11min)the "need to add to counterparty quality" and "higher quality balance sheets" while he named no names it is a short step to assume that he was referring to SXX Brazilian and Chinese TorP agreements.When questioned by Luke Nelson((13 min?) about the need for "extra Torps"he replied that was not required, but referenced "enhanced credit quality".
There was a discussion about this last week but WADR I think it missed the significance of this.
It seems probable that this topic is a result of pressure from the prospective lenders and the reason for that is this.
It is increasingly prevalent for suppliers to essentially offer credit to their customers by way of extended payment periods , periods of 90-120 days are not uncommon. In order to protect themselves from the risk of default and to improve cash flow, suppliers are using credit insurance (possibly from the same banks who are lending for development) which , obviously insures against default but also , crucially ,pays up front to the supplier (with a fee of perhaps 2-3%) and collects some time later from the recipient.However , in the current climate such credit insurers are demanding "enhanced credit quality " before they bear the risk, and/or demanding a higher fee for their service.Clearly this will have an influence on SXX "bottom line"or in an extreme case render sales to lower credit risk companies impossible,hence CF's concerns.It does also suggest that SXX may well be still pursuing deals with larger more well-established wholesalers even in areas where Torps already exist.

The wind direction is very clear, the IPA, cursed by a poor track record, is planning to stand on the sidelines , unless and until the project is on the cusp of success. It will then offer a ( by then unnecessary) guarantee and when success is achieved mark it down in the plus column.The latest RNS is indicative of that.

Neon I think the answer might lie in an Economist article in this weeks paper.
It's a fairly scathing indictment of this governments track record on major government projects and features a table (based on IPA data) on the likely successful outcome of such projects.
The table covers the years from 2013 to 2018 and the percentage deemed "highly likely " to succeed has fallen from 20% to ~2-3%, those "likely" to succeed is down from 30% to less than 20% while those "in doubt" or "not viable"have risen from 15% to 35%. With such an appalling record of delivery it is little wonder that Gov. is reluctant to engage in more!!!

Milo just come across this thread, and hardly surprisingly i will treat your offer with the response it deserves. Should you bother to read my input here you will see that at no time have I suggested that the SP will be below 21p in 2023, though I did correctly suggest on tuesday last that the SP might fall 10-20% on the RNS as it did...What I have consistently said is that I believe that at the moment, the balance of risk in the short term is to the downside, and that is why I am not currently invested , you can call that chicken, I call it a sensible analysis leading to a rational position. I do expect the SP to rise in future and fully intend to take advantage of that as I have in the past.

Back to OIL .
the EIA(US Energy Information Administration) has published its outlook to 2050 and without having read it all , the key is that its forecasts over a range of possible outcomes show no circumstance in which daily oil production falls below present levels until at least 2035. So there really is no rush to get the AM hooked up!!

BTW the only real music is Folk, there are still clubs where you can listen AND have a drink , what can be better!! For those of you blessed to live in Newcastle, get down to The Cluny almost any night!!