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Superl...If you check my posting history you will see that I set out my reservations about ST2 funding and my investing strategy in August of last year , sheeple I am not!!

Chero I think you misunderstand slightly .I am assuming a slug of equity goes to the "major global financial institution" at less than 20p either directly or indirectly by a conversion scheme , so the normal SP reaction to that would be to fall proportionately, BUT if that comes with the full assurance of funding, that may be more than offset by a SP rise. I am admitting that I don't know how the market would balance those two factors and that immediately post the announcement(s) the SP could move fairly significantly either way.If funding is assured but the SP falls I buy at below the current SP, but even if the SP rises I buy at , say, 25p In the full knowledge of a fully funded project.
I hesitate to mention that I sold out entirely last August in a series of tranches at about 35p average, so my strategy here has been sound(whether by good judgement or luck !).
If I buy now at 20p ish I still risk what may be a 25% loss, if I wait I may make a smaller profit but that is my somewhat cautious strategy which has served me well for almost thirty years of investing.

Hi ffc still out ,but I regard this weeks developments as positive. It dispels the risk (small but not inconceivable ) of a failure to fund ST2. We are now, I think, in a situation where a deal WILL be done rather than may be done, and that it will be done in time to avoid a delay or halt to development.
I still believe that the eventual outcome may be short-term negative for the SP as the conditions around the funding emerge.There is , I believe, a strong likelihood that SXX will have to give the "major global financial institution...." an equity share (and probably a significant share),outright or by way of convertibles, as part of the price for funding.That equity will, in all probability , be priced BELOW the prevailing SP at the time .
So I watch and wait, it looks like we will know within 4/6 weeks what the deal will be (if not all bets are off)and I feel confident that I will be able to buy in at a price between 15 and 25p, with a good deal of assurance as to the medium term future.

For info "private "in this context simply means an organisation not quoted on a stock exchange , that means it could be a sovereign wealth fund or a private equity company or possibly (but not probably) a hedge fund. It does not mean an individual.

Cherokee The major question is "what else does it contain?? and why "non-senior debt", non senior to what??Why would a major institution come along and offer non senior debt(ie higher risk) without a very significant upside elsewhere in the package?

NOte "the proposal CONTAINS a senior debt structure...."It doesn't say "CONSISTS OF....." .
When reading RNS's the exact words are often key , the wording does imply something more than merely an alternative debt-based funding arrangement.

PAAA
"An alternative proposal..." could mean that someone is willing to provide he cash needed for ST2 at commercial lending rates, but that is unlikely at this stage , it is much more probable that in return for funding by whatever means , the "major global financial institution" will want the equity . If i had to guess(and it is a guess) I would say that its private equity,or a pension fund who have been hoovering up "infrastructure"recently . As lots here have said , if SXX is a long-term success it will provide steady cash flow for decades. Whoever it is will want to "own" that revenue stream, not merely lend to support it.

tps://www.investegate.co.uk/sirius-minerals-plc--sxx-/rns/alternative-financing-proposal/201903120700195237S/

Yes there is.......and its for an "alternative financing proposal.".....ie a takeover?

At first glance it looks like city have held some SXX CBs and swapped them(via the vampire squid) for equity which has fallen and have run a similar transaction with Merrill which is also under water.City are stuffed , but the impact on SXX is negligible, the total position is only 8.5 mill shares ie <1% of SXX stock.If both goldman and merrill,sell the shares to exit the position it will have a negligible effect, but it does show even the apparently clever city boys can screw up !!

Slurms

A I tweeted the question they answered promptly

SXX obviously think the presentation in Miami is important as CF is doing it ,they have told me this pm

Myo But I would have hoped that SXX reps would be working hard on real actual funding proposals rather than presenting the same old stuff in Miami !!

Why are SXX presenting at the "JP Morgan high yield and leveraged loan conference", this week?
Are they still soliciting funds? , and if so does this suggest that ST2 is far from resolved?
what are the implications for timetable?

Somewhat late to this debate as i have been busy elsewhere, but felt it worth offering the following.
There are a number of moving parts to this , not all of which are in the public domain, here is what is.
Capital group have held around 10% of SXX since early 2014, so they probably paid less than 10p per share for their holding and bought when the MC was ~ £200 mill.Their partial exit now is poorly timed given that there have been several lengthy periods when they could have realised a profit of 300-400%,so may reflect other pressures (ie fund redemptions? The business press is full of stories about II's exiting many funds)
They participated in the warrants issue in 2015? though I haven't researched that , the regulars will no doubt know the details.
They will have subsidised their holding by the revenues from lending shares to shorters and having reduced their holdings by about 30%, currently still have ~25% of their holding out on loan.
The deal(s)for about 150 mill shares will have been done off market as volumes are well below that at the mo.,and very recently, the notification requirements are "within two days".
I am not sure what point Myo was trying to make this am in his 07.53. Capital are a fund manager and make their profits from fees not capital appreciation of their holdings , the shares in their fund belong to the II's in either capital global or world funds not Capital themselves .
L and G are run By Nigel Wilson who is from the north east(Newton Aycliffe) and is a NUFC fan and while a very hard headed business man clearly still has a soft spot for the NE as he already invests Land Gs cash in the north east eg the newcastle Helix science park ,so this is not untypical.
This has not had any measurable effect on the SP as all of the fall well predates this transaction.

Roulette -it is to make a profit, what's yours?

roulette - My logic is simple, if there is a ST2 deal which is bad for shareholders but ensures SXX the necessary capital to complete the mine, then the SP will fall and I will buy shares in a fully funded project with a high chance of success at a lower price than now .
If there is a funding settlement which is both positive for shareholders and still ensures full funding then I will buy shares at a price higher than now (but in all probability lower than my exit last august.)
Both cases mean I am buying at a much lower risk than currently
The only case in which I will not buy, is if ST2 funding is inadequate to complete the build.
That says it all for me as well.

Hi Fred been busy with my property deal lately! But I fully expect to buy in shortly after the euphoria/despair following ST2 announcement!!!

Hi Myo I trust you read para 6 thoroughly!!!!

Tuckupp No I hardly ever go to funerals!!